rough, incomplete
Myanmar's Alleged Coronavirus Offensive
In 2017-18 I studied crimes alleged by and/or committed by the Islamist Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) allegations in Myanmar (Burma). The brutal, genocidal government and its security forces called "Tatmadaw" were accused of massacring Muslim (and Hindu) Rohingya civilians in the western state of Rakhine, torching villages, and chasing the "Bengalis" back to Bangladesh, after a deadly ARSA offensive on 30 police stations on August 24.
The government of Myanmar was historically run by the Tatmadaw, but since 2008 includes a civilian part headed by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Once hoped to be a Western puppet against the Tatmadaw, it seems she "went native" and sides with them, now joining them as a target of the regime-change machine. Myanmar is one of those nations like Syria that's been pre-judged as guilty for everything new, on the precedent of all allegations before that being accepted. And ARSA - like the "Free Syrian Army" - was a Western-favored "resistance" force in another state-genocide narrative, until their public reputation was thoroughly ruined; evidence of their hideous, deceptive, and genocidal nature could not be denied. ARSA forces animated by religious hate hacked up Hindu babies, 100 villagers total, at Kha Maung Seik, on day one of their military offensive. (covered best by me, and later by Amnesty International) They lodged false stories blaming the Tatmadaw, but unusually, the stories failed once the women they had kidnapped as "wives" were freed to tell the truth. And so ARSA is blamed for the only clearly proven massacre of civilians in that whole affair. The reality of 2017's other allegation has never been properly re-assessed in that light.
One might understand why Burmese officials see a link there, but AA and ASA both deny it, it would make a good smear, and I can't prove they're right. The concept is one I mean to write on in another post, but for now, we just need to know this Arakan Army existed as far back as 2009, but only got big and bold and well-equipped in mid-late 2018, and emerged with major attacks by January, 2019 at the latest. Myanmar designated them a terrorist organization only on March 23, 2020, after more than a year of increasing violence, contested as always.
All this would have been just barely complicated by what seems to be a mild, well-contained outbreak of coronavirus. The 161 confirmed cases and a mere six related fatalities (as of May 5) is probably an extremely incomplete count, however, and the World Health Organization had been working on getting a wider reading of the COVID19 crisis there, including in the embattled Rakhine state. Both sides publicly agreed to a ceasefire and to facilitate the WHO's work, but it was badly complicated, on April 20, by the first armed attack on their workers, killing one of them. Arakan Army blames the Myanmar military for the shooting, and the government blames Arakan Army. Most credible sources have reserved judgment, but are most likely to side with the designated terrorists or, as others say, the resistance to Myanmar's brutal, genocidal government. But let's consider this alleged regime crime in light of its alleged strategy so far.
CNN, April 30: The departing UN special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, Yanghee Lee took a last shot at Myannmar, accusing them "of targeting ethnic Rakhine Buddhist civilians during recent clashes with the Arakan Army (AA), ... houses had been burned, a monastery was attacked and people had been arrested and tortured. "And then we find bodies that have been decapitated, these are Rakhine people," Lee said." Later, the article says "The Arakan Army is also carrying out attacks on civilians, Lee says. "We have proof that they have kidnapped local parliamentarians," Lee said. "They also have kidnapped people and civilians," likely including fellow Rakhine people who support the government. But the beheaded ones, she's pretty sure, are the ones by government forces, on account of being Rakhine. "I am calling the situation crimes against humanity and war crimes. These are the highest, the most heinous and gravest crimes of international law," she added.
So it's already accepted they're hacking up Rakhine Buddhists now, as they have with Muslim Rohingya in the past. And now COVID19 is "emboldening the Tatmadaw," Lee said, complaining they've put up roadblocks that only keep people from hospitals. "If they have these additional powers in the name of enforcing or preventing the spread of the pandemic" this can only give them "a greater, higher level of power to do what they've done always in the past few decades, but in a more severe and horrific manner." She's thinking they'll enforce the virus' spread, to genocide the Rakhines and the remaining Rohingya as they always have before. Some say Lee has a bias against the Myanmar government. They're clearly correct. She sounds much like an anonymous "human rights activist" in Myanmar said “I assume Myanmar army ... wants our people die by the coronavirus infection whereas they believe massive Rakhine population are infected and then killed will make the army to win the war against AA as Aung San Suu Kyi has ordered the army to crash it.” [AN1]
I've been arguing how serious this pandemic is, challenging ill-informed dismissals and conspiracy theories about it. But as dangerous as it is, it is overblown in many minds, and it's not much in the line of a deadly tool of genocide, as people are suggesting. And the evidence that Suu Kyi and the Tatamdaw are behind it, as we'll see, is rather unconvincing.
Phil Robertson, the deputy Asia director for Human Rights Watch said "Myanmar's military, and its accomplices in Aung San Suu Kyi's civilian government, are taking advantage of the world's distraction with Covid-19 to press forward with military atrocities to try and break the back of the Arakan Army resistance, and they don't care who they kill or maim to do it." [CNN]
Thei CEO Kenneth Roth agreed, the same day saying "The Myanmar military seems to calculate: what better time to commit war crimes than while a global pandemic distracts everyone. Having already used murder, rape and arson to chase ~700,000 Rohingya Muslims, it can target the ~600,000 who remain in Myanmar." [Roth]
Next in that strategy - while the world is distracted by COVID19 crisis and the WHO-led response, they should ... be the first state to murder some WHO workers leading that response, knowing they'll be blamed and have no luck passing it off. The same CNN article notes more blandly "On April 20, a World Health Organization (WHO) driver of a UN vehicle was killed and a government official in the car was severely injured after their vehicle came under attack when they were transporting Covid-19 samples." [CNN] They don't say who did it, and no one comments on how that fits, because it doesn't fit very well at all. They shoot their own official and a WHO driver working ON the crisis everyone's distracted BY? That inserts you on the world stage, the opposite of the strategy these interventionists have imagined. Robertson knows the answer: the regime thugs just "don't care who they kill or maim." They're unfailingly evil and, wherever it's convenient, they're also illogical inept, whatever.
Neither side in the Rakhine conflict stands to benefit from such a senseless act, except by blaming the other side, and that can't work unless they can make their story stick. Naypyidaw has proven bad at this. Arakan Army, as the championed "resistance" group of the moment, is the one with a rational motive to try a stunt like this. That's far from proof they did it, but it shouldn't be ignored, especially if other evidence points the same way - as it does.
Incident Review
The following is a decent analysis of the incident, with perhaps more detail to emerge and add later.
Myanmar Times, 21 April: "A driver for the United Nation’s World Health Organization has died from his wounds after armed men fired at a marked UN vehicle in Rakhine State on the evening of April 20. The driver, identified as Pyae Sone Win Maung, was one of the two people injured when the vehicle they were riding was attacked near Ra Maung bridge in Minbya township."
“The WHO colleague was driving a marked UN vehicle from Sittwe to Yangon transporting COVID-19 surveillance samples in support of the Ministry of Health and Sports,” it added. “The United Nations is seeking further information on the circumstances of the incident.” The vehicle came from the Rakhine capital, Sittwe, and was on its way to Yangon when the incident occurred, according to a report of the Ministry of Information on its website. It was carrying medical workers, including two local staff of the World Health Organization, who were taking nasal and throat swab samples for COVID-19 tests from several townships in the state. The vehicle crashed into a ditch, injuring the driver and a health official identified as U Aung Myo Oo. The Ministry of Information blamed the attack on the Arakan Army (AA)." [MT]
An Arakan Army account starts with an unprovoked army assault in the area lasting all day on April 20, killing a village and wounding others. A map shows the location of clashes in the forest where the road bends south. Implicitly, the area was then cleared of AA fighters, and is shown ringed with 3 mobile army posts/camps. "The Myanmar Army suffered some losses during their offensive assaults. There was only sporadic fighting after 16:00 pm." [AA1]
Side-note: One AA supporter posted a video to argue the government and/or WHO violated transport rules in a suspicious set-up: "the Sittwe-angoon highway in the Rakhine state is a death road in the war zone." The only safe route was by air, he argues, but they sent the team into a death zone they alone had access to - that late in the day, allegedly.
AA account, continued: "At 17:40 pm, the WHO car passed the tatmadaw's checkpoint coming fom Sittwe, given permission to cross the Ra-Maung bridge and continue south. then, as villains do, "the Myanmar soldiers who gave the permit opened gunfire behind the car and other Burmese troops from left and right side of the road also shot the car. ...
"As a result, those two staffs were critically injured. In addition, their car engine stopped by the roadside." It has been for a long time that the Burmese troops have stationed in the factory by the roadside. This incident happened in the area of the Myanmar Military base. ... the incident is totally unrelated to our organization. This is a deliberate and heinous act of the Myanmar Army." Shooting came "from the Ra-Maung bridge Myanmar Military Checkpoint, other Myanmar troops from left and right side of the road and the Myanmar Military stronghold stationed in the factory by the roadside" are those all really active posts, that were not overrun in the day's "offensive"? AA says or implies as much, but we shouldn't blindly trust them.
"The bullet shot by the Myanmar Army hit the body of U Pyae Sone Win Maung. … At the time we rescued U Pyae Sone Win Maung, he got shocked by over bleeding. According to follow-up news, ...he passed away of gunshot wounds at midnight at the Minbya hospital." The injured passenger is named as U Aung Myo Oo. Myanmar Times reported the car held "medical workers, including" two from WHO and the injured survivor, a "health official identified as U Aung Myo Oo" That suggests there were others, but they aren't mentioned explicitly, or reported as missing. That could be nothing but unclear wording, or an important clue. (The AA is known to kidnap soldiers, officials, etc.)
"If the staff with gunshot wounds and the places on the car hit by the bullets are checked, it can be clearly seen that the injuries and damages were caused by the bullets of the Myanmar Army." [AA1]
"However, Brigadier General Zaw Min Tun, a spokesman of the Tatmadaw, said autopsy on the victim showed the bullets that hit him are 7.62 mm in diameter and 25 mm in length, which are not standard issue for government troops. "Bullets are different from those used by the Tatmadaw. They are from M-23 gun used by AA. It has been tested by gun experts," he said." [MT] I can't verify this claim, but it is more specific and more logical than the AA's tedious repetitions of their total innocence in the face of mindless evil.
And somehow, Arakan Army admits they were first on the scene, albeit some time after - as they tell it: "The Arakan Army saw a well-marked United Nations vehicle by the roadside soon after this incident happened and rescued those two WHO staffs pulling out of the car. After that, the Arakan Army provided and treated them with First Aid and we transferred them to Minbya Hospital with help of local residents there." [AA1]
Pyidaungsu Institute on Facebook: "About an hour after the shooting, the injured WHO personnel were treated and taken to a safe place by the AA." [PI]
So ... the Tatmadaw ran this area, 3 mobile posts and a base within meters, surrounded and shot the WHO team off the road, but then never moved in to arrest them or to finish them off, move the car, or anything. They just left the men - one of their own health officials and a WHO driver - stranded and bleeding, in an area the Tatmadaw was known to control, for about an hour before AA was somehow able to access the scene again, get around those posts, to witness the wreck and do their good guy thing. No one shot them as they rescued the witnesses, only one of whom died. Did they drive them out on the road, or carry them through the woods? Not explained yet, that I've seen, and I suspect the latter would be mentioned if it happened.
Pyidaungsu Institute: “The incident happened around 5 pm,” said Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun of the Tatmadaw News Agency. He said that the Ramadan Bridge was crossing over from Sittwe and that the left side shot at the hill. The Tatmadaw Bridge has been repeatedly fired by Tatmadaw troops and vehicles. ” Lt. Col. Zaw Min Tun said that the army troops were on the way to the hill, which was throwing the WHO car at night, and that some of the soldiers were injured." (translation brush-up ...) [PI]
AA notes they were first to break the story around 11PM, hinting at a cover-up. They were telling the world just 4 hours after they claim to have stumbled upon the scene, and just an hour before the diver passed away. - But as they note, the government and its media outlets delayed reporting the incident (and/or learning about it?) until after AA broke the story. It was around 1 am on the 21st when "the state-own MRTV broadcasted it with misinformation and full of lies," with the rest following quickly. "We strongly condemn ... misinformation and smear campaign to accuse ... the ULA/AA. Such smear campaign by state-owned information agency is not only trying to cover up war crimes committed by the Myanmar Army but also working in tandem with the Myanmar Army’s propaganda machine to impose the blames of the Myanmar Army on our organization."
At the scene, they took this image (faint AA logo stamped in red), looking like a screen grab from a video I wouldn't mind seeing.
The vehicle damage is minimal - I'm not sure if any bullet holes are clearly visible. The diver's side window is gone, seeming shattered away, and it's the driver who was hit in the upper body and died. The scene is of some interest. It's non-descript stretch of road, trees on either side, giving way to rocks and dirt on the left, as at a side-road or driveway. In the graphic below, I marked in orange 3 spots that seem like possible matches: one is inside AA's given area and might be it. But otherwise, the middle one seems a slightly better guess (four much smaller trees in the foreground?). Other small details that don't pin it down play into that (e.g. a mound and white pole in the mid-distance on the left? There's a mound not far from the middle spot, possibly with such a pole.). The other spot is what they say, and it's at the deeper part of that Sherwood forest these Robin Hoods can just pop out of.
The angle of sunlight says there is none, because it's past sunset. As I looked it up, that was at 18:37 local time that day. I'd say this is at least a few minutes after that, about 6:45 pm or a bit later.The incident is agreed as around 5pm (rounded) or more exactly, a bit after 5:40. Visually, this is about an hour later, like they say. The car might be facing west towards the glowing horizon after sunset, with the brightest point maybe reflecting directly off the left passenger-side mirror, so car facing is a bit SW, just like this stretch of road runs.
So they may give the right time and place, and it doesn't help much when that seems before any army people got to the victims, and right next to where AA had been until some clash earlier that day, and would return to afterwards. In-between, before, and after, they'd have us believe, "It has been for a long time that the Burmese troops have stationed in the factory by the roadside," and we can see how they had those woods surrounded. That was all meant to prove who did the shooting, but then the logical culprits seem to have at least as much access, and perhaps even control of the area.
A Second Incident
In case anyone was unclear on their motives, the Tatmadaw repeated a similar stunt in the same area the following afternoon, and AA again has access. On the 21st, Arakan News reported the "second time COVID-19 related vehicle was shot in Myanmar," this time a truck "carrying antiseptic solutions" (actually pest control - should contain pesticides, unless Competitive Pest Services had branched out during the cisis). This happened "near the Ra-Maung Bridage" and "on the same parameter where WHO’s staff shot and killed and wounded the government health worker on April 20"
The driver again was killed "on the sport" (U Yin Yin Maung), and the "codriver" or passenger (Maung Hin Htet) again was just wounded, and taken to Minbya hospital. They don't say what happened with the truck's cargo.
They say this one was headed the other way, from Rangoon towards Sittwe, but that seems wrong, judging by the provided photo; the sun is moderately high, early afternoon, so coming from the southwest. See how all shadows run to the left, roughly parallel to the road's edge, angling back towards it a bit. The truck is pointed into the sun, so unless it did a U-turn in the cash, the driver's side that was again hit worst was again the side facing the woods AA seems to have constant access to.
photo: regular paramedics, or does AA have its own equivalent of the "White Helmets"? I suppose they're the ones making sure the patient has a mask and gloves on, like they do. The tree it hit seems to have some wooden slat structure leaning against it - part of some kind of amateur roadblock?
The head of local human rights organization that monitors COVID 19 outbreak in Rakhine Said, “I assume Myanmar army is intentionally attacking the COVID 19 related vehicles and health workers because the army wants our people die by the coronavirus infection whereas they believe massive Rakhine population are infected and then killed will make the army to win the war against AA as Aung San Suu Kyi has ordered the army to crash it.” He continues, “When they are losing the war in Rakhine, they target all kinds of civilians for revenge including the WHO staffs and now again over attack on Antiseptic Solution supply vehicle.” He does not want to publish his name for security reason.
