By Adam Larson (aka Caustic Logic)
May 11, 2024
(rough, incomplete)
A post tracing out an important story like this should be done in a timely manner, so my old "rough, incomplete" posting style returns. ... some citations, hopefully no more details, some editing still planned.
Aside from about 2% who've been killed, nearly all of Gaza's people, around 1.4 million, are now forced into Rafah on the Egyptian border. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has all along promised to continue the fight into the city, to eradicate Hamas and make sure nothing like their October 7 attacks could ever happen again. As this seemed imminent, there was a new push in March and April for a hostages-and-ceasefire deal. But a final promising line failed, with both sides blaming each other, before the IDF began operations inside Rafah on May 7, evacuating some eastern districts, launching strikes there and beyond, and seizing the border crossing with Egypt, and vowing to continue despite the dramatic announcement of a freeze on (relevant) US-supplied weapons.
Netanyahu’s office would say the Hamas ceasefire plan he had just rejected “would appear to be a ruse intended to make Israel look like the side refusing a deal.” (Telegraph) But as this article will explain, the opposite may be true and in the most cynical way; after killing many of its own hostages, Israel demanded the release of more than there were still alive, and quite likely did this knowingly. With their impossible demand unmet, they could blame Hamas as they pursue the attack they wanted, at great peril to the remaining hostages and to every other person currently trying to survive in Rafah.
This is explained a little ways below. First, some optional context (may be slimmed down).
The First Days: Hostage Prevention, Then Hostage Sacrifice
When Hamas fighter/terrorists swept into Israeli territory on October 7 and started snatching people to take back to Gaza, it seems they tried to take far more than they finally did. Dozens or perhaps hundreds of captured citizens were killed, alongside their captors, by Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) tank and helicopter fire in the overrun villages, army bases, a police station, at the Nova rave, and across the fields back to Gaza.
This has been a sort of massive open secret from almost the beginning, as confirmed by the IDF itself, As Jonathn Cook would write for Middle East Eye, December 15: "This week the Israeli military finally conceded that it had killed its own civilians on October 7 "in immense and complex quantity”. Given the large numbers, it added with transparent non-logic: “It would not be morally sound to investigate these incidents.”
While accidents are likely enough in such a scenario, it seems this "friendly fire" was at least partly intentional. This may have been a twisted new take on the IDF's controversial "Hannibal" directive: abductions must be prevented, even at the risk of killing a captive soldier, rather than to let him (or her) weaken Israel with a lopsided prisoner exchange. The policy was formally cancelled years ago, following the events of "Black Friday" in Rafah, 2014 (Al-Jazeera documentary), and it was never used for civilian captives. But an investigation by Israeli paper Yedioth Ahronoth found the Hannibal directive was effectively reactivated and expanded at noon on October 7, with the order to stop terrorists from returning to Gaza "at all costs." No exception is noted for the wide presence of hostages, including civilian ones, which was well known by then. (https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/yokra13754368)
Some deadly fire by Apache helicopters preceded that order, while the first IDF tank attack on a commandeered house would only come around 5pm in Be'eri, according to the widely-cited survivors Yasmin Porat and Hadas Dagan. This may have been specially approved based on the existing order plus the appeal of killing an amazing 40 terrorists holed up in that house, at the known cost: 13 civilians, including two children, were killed. It was only after this that the policy was maybe expanded to settle other hostage standoffs. In some cases, hostages were rescued, but only by force - never by a deal. But many other houses in Be'eri and other villages would be blasted the same way over the following 2 days, with dozens or hundreds killed and no survivors allowed.
So Israeli leadership seemingly decided they wanted as few hostages as possible to deal with or bring home. In the end, only some 250 people - civilian and military, Israeli and foreign - were successfully kidnapped into Gaza - some of them wounded by both sides' fire - before Israel started its bombing there just a few hours later.
After a week of this brutal assault, Hamas was offering to negotiate. But as Times of Israel reported, October 14: National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi said “Israel will not hold negotiations with an enemy that we have vowed to wipe from the face of the earth,” These comments "prompted fury from the families of the missing," the Times reported, "with their spokesman accusing the government of abandoning them." After all, some of their kids and kin were stuck on that part of the Earth's face.
The following day, Netanyahu invited several of these family members to a hastily convened meeting. It was a private meeting, but someone secretly recorded the audio, which was later published by Uncaptured Media, with notes by Dan Cohen.
"Less than 20 minutes into the meeting, according to family members of captives who were there, an aide to Netanyahu entered the room and announced that another group of families of captives had arrived. Several religious Zionists, identifiable by their distinctive style of dress, then entered the room, none of whom were familiar to the families already inside."
"As those families would soon find out, Netanyahu, the group of religious Zionist latecomers, and a broader political network of extreme right-wing Kahanists, had fired the opening shot of a total psychological, political and media war against the families of the captives, seeking to demoralize and confuse them, and drown out their calls for negotiations with Hamas in the national cacophony of calls for vengeance."
These "latecomers" also had family killed or kidnapped, or missing and perhaps kidnapped, somewhere in Gaza. But they told the others they should trust the Prime Minister to ensure Israel's future, and not let their personal pain complicate the war effort. Tzvika Mor would say "more than I love my son, I love the people of Israel. ... Therefore I want to empower you [Netanyahu] and the entire war cabinet ... we trust you 200 percent.” Ohad Zvi Lapidot also highlighted the PM's leadership, staring to explain "there is a chess game, there are pawns..." but he was interrupted by several others, reminding him those were their children and loved ones, not Netanyahu's "pawns" to surrender for whatever strategy.
At the meeting's end, Cohen writes, "Netanyahu boasted about the bombing campaign on Gaza, and insisted that though the defeat of Hamas was the overriding priority, the government would also seek the release of the captives." (see also: https://twitter.com/dancohen3000/status/1749587413796589859)
The following violence has killed nearly 2% of Gaza's population as it pushes them from one "safe zone" to the next, smashing almost everything along the way. It seems it has also killed many of the hostages. Hamas commander Abu Obeida would say on November 4: "more than 60 enemy prisoners" were killed in the intensive first weeks IDF bombing, with 23 of their bodies hopelessly buried in the rubble. (https://t.me/resistmirror1/218) No names or other specifics were offered, and the claim seems to be widely discounted by Israel. But to the extent this is true, it might be an accidental effect of the massive bombing, a piecemeal continuation of October 7's "friendly fire," or some of both.
Israel began its ground invasion of Gaza on October 26. Haim Rubinstein, an advocate for hostage families, would tell Times of Israel in April, the families were not informed of this, and demanded a meeting that same day. Netanyahu evaded and then agreed but, as Rubinstein says, he "merely said a military operation in Gaza was needed to serve as leverage for the hostages’ release." But “We later found out that Hamas had offered on October 9 or 10 to release all the civilian hostages in exchange for the IDF not entering the Strip," Rubinstein says, "but the government rejected the offer.” They wanted to get them out with "leverage" instead.
Rubinstein also said “There is no doubt that Netanyahu is preventing a deal," and accused the PM of "meddling in the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, in an attempt to divide [the families],”
As they pushed for "leverage" and hostage release, the IDF managed to claim an early victory on October 30 with the "active rescue" of Private Ori Megidish. Questions surround this case; she was missing from initial listings of those kidnapped, only being added on the day of her rescue (Hala Jaber on X) and a supposed Hamas computer found in al-Shifa hospital had a public photo of pvt. Megidish as its wallpaper, as if to prove she had been there or in their hands (Younis Tirawi). But the supposed rescue provided "hope to millions of Israelis that more hostages can be released," as a spokesman said, even without striking any deals.
Hopes aside, no more hostages were freed by any means before a November ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal that allowed 105 of them, mostly women and children, to be released alive and safely returned home.
Hamas explained that Ariel and Kfir Bibas, ages 4 and 10 months (at kidnapping) had already been killed, along with their mother, in Israeli bombing, According to Al-Qassam and Al-Quds Brigades on Telegram, November 30: "The resistance offered to hand over the three bodies, but the occupation government refused to receive them and is still maneuvering and bargaining." Israel has generally dismissed this claim, insisting Hamas was still holding children - just these 2 - demanding they be brought home.
Netanyahu Suddenly Takes an Interest
No more deals or releases followed before Israel managed, on February 12, to rescue two of its hostages (Fernando Simon Marman and Luis Har) by military force alone. Around 100 civilians were reportedly killed in this bold raid into Rafah city and in related military strikes. It was the only rescue since Megidish, and there haven't been any since. By force, Israel brough home two or maybe three of their hostages. Employing peace as well, they got 105.
That victory also helped to overshadow some bad news from the day before; two other hostages were killed in an airstrike, according to the Hamas-affiliated Al-Qassam and Al-Quds Brigades, with 8 more badly wounded (Telegram). Three of these reportedly died the following day, for a total of at least five killed (TG). The fate of the rest and the names of any of these victims were never reported.
On February 11, as the 2 deaths were reported, Netanyahu was asked how many of the hostages remained. He didn't know exactly, but said it was "enough to warrant the kind of efforts that we're doing," perhaps meaning there were still too many and he planned to keep killing them off. (France 24)
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According to "a leading source in the Qassam [brigade]" and reported on the brigade's official website, one of these men, Yoram Metzger, was "a close friend of Netanyahu "according to his confessions" while in detention." (alqassam.ps) Their Telegram channel posted this provocative image of the Israeli PM crossing out a photo of Metzger. Notes in English, Hebrew and Arabic say: "Netanyahu abandoned his buddies to face their fate alone without saving them."
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That claim isn't confirmed that I know of, but it was just at this time that Netanyahu seemed to grow suddenly intrigued about details of the hostages, like just how many were still alive. His government explicitly pressed for a list of who remained before agreeing to any more potential deals. By March 3 they were boycotting ongoing talks in Cairo until this demand was met.
RTE March 3: "Israel, which has so far announced no plans to join the Egypt talks, has demanded Hamas provide it with a list of all 130 remaining captives, including more than 30 it fears are dead. One source briefed on the talks had said yesterday that Israel could stay away from Cairo unless Hamas first presented its full list of hostages who are still alive."
A cynical reading of this move: if the IDF had already killed most of its own hostages (and if this included Yoram Metzger?), the few remaining might be expendable enough to ignore, and the assault should continue.
Feeling for the Point of No Return?
As if to test that possibility, Irael's demand for a full list shifted to a selection of 40 living hostages in the "humanitarian" category: women, children, older and sick men (or excluding healthy fighting age men). This should probably account for close to half the total, and people have been assuming there around 100 living hostages. If those assumptions are correct, 40 eligible people should be around.
The Guardian, March 4: "Israel has not sent a delegation to the second day of talks in Cairo, demanding that Hamas present a list of 40 elderly, sick and female hostages who would be the first to be released as part of a truce that would initially last six weeks, beginning with the month of Ramadan, the officials say."
Hamas had consistently demanded a permanent ceasefire and withdrawal of enemy forces, while Israel only offered a 6-week truce, and that only upon getting those 40 names. This wasn't resolved immediately, with the demand remaining the same and unmet a month later. Times of Israel April 8: According to unnamed Israeli officials "40 hostages would be freed under the first phase of the proposed deal, during a six-week truce," and the rest in due time. In return, "Israel would release 700 Palestinian security prisoners, including more than 100 serving life for attacks that killed Israelis."
It sounded like a great deal, considering the alternatives. But even with a month since the demand was issued, Hamas finally replied, disturbingly, in the negative. CNN would report on April 10: Hamas has told international mediators – which include Qatar and Egypt - it does not have 40 living hostages who match those criteria for release, both sources said." ... "The inability - or unwillingness - of Hamas to tell Israel which hostages would be released, alive, is a major obstacle, the second source added." But as CNN noted, this revelation also raised "fears that more hostages may be dead than are publicly known."
Side-note: Both sources above fail to mention the release of any children, as they also switch to just living people. Have they finally acknowledged that Ariel and Kfir Bibas are gone, as they ask only for women and certain men?
Israel then revised its demand, in a show of reasonableness. Acknowledging there may be more deaths than they assumed - but just a bit more - they could settle for 33 hostages and no less. Times of Israel, April 29: "Three Israeli officials confirm to The New York Times that Israel has dropped its demand that Hamas free 40 living hostages as part of a truce agreement and will now accept the release of 33 hostages. One of the officials says the shift was due to assessments that some of the 40 hostages whose release Israel was demanding have died in Hamas captivity."
Side-note: Again, "The numbers relate to hostages in a so-called “humanitarian” designation" listed in the Times report as "women, children, men over 50, and those who are sick." Are they back to pretending Hamas holds living children? (here and above: it's not certain whose wording this is and what it means)
The shift to 33 was ostensibly meant to reflect the number of requested hostages who had already died. But if that was really the intent, it seems to have failed. Hamas would report back they didn't even have 33 relevant hostages.
This time they made a specific offer to release 33 hostages - apparently meaning all of those still alive, plus some of the dead. Times of Israel, May 7: "The New York Times reported Tuesday that the terror group had explicitly told mediators that some of the 33 hostages it would release under the first phase of the prospective deal would not be alive."
The report also notes "The Times said it was not clear whether the terror group had informed interlocutors how many of the 33 would be alive." Perhaps they did specify and it's the Israeli side keeping that from us, because Hamas had just offered to release nearly the demanded 33 - say 26 living hostages (see below) - plus the remains of 7 others, as the best they could do in trade for a 6-week delay on the offensive. But as the ToI report notes "the claim that even the 33 under discussion are not all alive appears to be a new walk-back by the terror group," and "A failure to release 33 living hostages would appear to conflict with Israeli demands."
Indeed, the war cabinet was unsatisfied with this answer and took it as a last straw. The Telegraph, May 7: "Israel rejected a ceasefire offer from Hamas on Monday night ... saying a last-minute proposal had failed to meet its key demands. ... and that it would continue with a planned ground invasion of Rafah “in order to apply military pressure to Hamas” and to free hostages." Tanks entered Rafah that same day. We'll see how that works out.
"Mr Netanyahu’s office said it would send a negotiating team to Egypt to discuss an agreement, but officials earlier warned that the Hamas plan “would appear to be a ruse intended to make Israel look like the side refusing a deal” when really, he suggests, Hamas were the ones refusing to ... bring people back to life after his own forces killed them? As the next section will finally explain, it seems that, in its intensive assault on Gaza, Israel had killed so many of its own hostages that Hamas was not able to meet even the revised demand.
The Tally: Too Small to Fit the Bill
The Guardian, March 4: "Diplomatic sources in Washington ... suggested" the failure to identify the initial 40 "could reflect problems of communication between Hamas units inside and outside Gaza, that some hostages could be held by other groups including Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or that elements of Hamas were withholding the information as a way of obstructing a deal." That too many have been killed isn't even mentioned as a possible reason.
But CNN's April 10 report would notes "CNN’s record of the conditions of the hostages also suggests there are fewer than 40 living hostages who meet the proposed criteria." I've been following this subject for months now, with one post here and some on X (Twitter), but I would point first to this detailed report in Hebrew from Ha-Makom. CNN's record seems to be accurate, and this may be highly relevant.
Some hostages who made it to Gaza died early on from injuries sustained on October 7. Others were reportedly killed by IDF bombing, shooting, or from lack of food & medicine enforced by Israel, and even in a possible use of chemical weapons deployed in Hamas' tunnels (The Gray Zone). The bulk of these reported deaths came early. As mentioned above, Hamas commander Abu Obeida would say on November 4: "more than 60 enemy prisoners" were killed in the intensive first weeks IDF bombing, with 23 bodies buried in the rubble. None of those 60+ were named, and their exact number and dates of death all unclear.
So here is my updated list of 39 named or specified fatalities following that announcement. Perhaps a few earlier deaths here were included in the 60+, but most clearly came after it, so that the full total who've died is probably less than 99+, but not by much.
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28 reportedly and likely killed in IDF attacks on/in Gaza
6+ following/caused by injury on Oct. 7 (possibly by IDF, if mainly by Hamas)
2+ medical neglect/lack of food (likely worsened by Israeli blockade)
3 unclear, and 0 proven Hamas executions.
Side-note on the 2 most recent additions (Judith Weinstein, unnamed Nadav Popplewell) these are more questionable than most, but worth adding to this list of reported deaths. see: Adam Larson #EndtheOPCWCoverup #FreeAssange onX - https://t.me/resistmirror1/5283 - https://t.me/resistmirror1/5284 - https://t.me/resistmirror1/5458 - https://t.me/resistmirror1/5457
The total number still alive is harder to know. Chabad.org maintains a list (last updated May 6) of hostages held, those released or rescued, those killed with bodies recovered, and those killed and still held, all arranged for the appropriate prayers. This gives 87 hostages thought to be alive (it was 96 at one point) and 36 bodies, presumably confirmed as such, which they want returned. That totals 123 - a bit less than the 130+ usually cited as hostages still held by Hamas. (Chabad also lists 19 recovered bodies and 108 released alive = total 250.)
The 87 living hostages Chabad lists includes 10 11 people named by Hamas channels as killed in Israeli attacks or by their siege (Bibas, Bibas, Bibas, Cooper, Peri, Metzger, Dancyg, Elgarat, Buchstab, Weinstein, Popplewell). Subtracting those leaves at most 77 76 that probably are alive.
The 60+ killed in the first month and the 5 reportedly killed in February remain unnamed (at least 66). With no names given, we cannot check if any on that huge 60+ pool are already listed among the confirmed deaths. Therefore, a maximum, where all those reported deaths are also confirmed (unlikely) could leave up to that full 76. A minimum where all those remain unconfirmed would leave only 9, or less yet if others have since died.
A most-likely middle range with 35-55 unconfirmed deaths to subtract would mean somewhere between 21 and 41 hostages remain alive, in total, or perhaps less by now.
However, the latest deals focus on hostages in a the “humanitarian” designation — women, any children, and men over 50 or who are sick. I tried to list all by age and gender, using 2 lists, and hopefully not missing anyone. As listed, 37 hostages thought to be alive that fit the bill for age and gender. Subtracting the named ten who were probably killed = a maximum of 28 27 eligible hostages still alive. Here are all of these (listed by last name). Some or most of these people could very well have been free by now. It seems that Hamas had offered to free them.
The state of Israel will have more detailed information, but they might have reached a similar conclusion. They likely weren't sure when they asked in March how many were still alive, and might have been genuinely feeling it out when they asked for 40, then 33. But it seems quite likely they had some idea and were intentionally demanding more living hostages than there were, Hoping that no one would realize that, Netanyahu could strike a pose as making offer after "reasonable" offer that he knew could never be met - a "ruse," you could say, just to have Hamas "refuse" and all the death to follow seem like their fault.
Either way, at less than 33 fit for release, it was clear the IDF had killed enough of its own people that they didn't need to bother with the rest. It was time to commence the assault on Rafah, at whatever risk to the few still with us.
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Left to be Plowed Over
It's not clear who remains, but the hostages seen alive most recently have the best case for remining that way now. These are the nine 11 I have noted, listed chronologically.
1 Naama Levy, a socially conscious young recruit famously seen in bloodied pants (most likely unrelated to any rape), was perhaps seen alive after an IDF strike in November, being hurriedly moved by some civilian men to an unclear, maybe safer location. https://twitter.com/MatamalasJ/status/1736431066188013571
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3 Noa Argamani, perhaps the most famous face of the October 7 abductions was seen in a video posted January 15/16. She was alive and well but with shrapnel injuries (she says) after two IDF strikes. One strike killed fellow captive Yossi Sharabi, then Itay Svirsky was killed in another (plus however many of the Hamas men guarding them, and whoever else was killed in each incident). She complained then of a lack of food and water, and she does not look overfed. It's nearly four months later now.
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4,5,6,7,8 the military girls Karina Ariev, Daniella Gilboa, Doron Steinbrecher, Liri Albag, and Agam Berger were shown is some videos in January. On the 7th, Albag, Ariev, Berger, and Gilboa (https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1744371471953084681) were seen variously injured and terrified, but it was old footage from "hours after their October 7 kidnapping." (the video is said to be Hamas-released, but it doesn't appear on the usual Telegram channel - it may be unreleased footage that soldiers found during the war) A few weeks later, on the 26th, Hamas clearly released a video of Ariev, Gilboa, and a new face - Steinbrecher - in better shape and speaking at some length in a new video. I'm not sure what they say, but they say it with apparent conviction. (https://t.me/resistmirror1/3434) Liri Albag and Agam Berger failing to re-appear might be a bad sign.
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https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1784309485298651272 - - https://t.me/resistmirror1/5135
Finally, on May 10 it was announced on the Hamas telegram channel "A few days ago, in the last moments, we rescued an enemy prisoner after he attempted to commit suicide where he was captured. We hold the enemy and Netanyahu personally fully responsible for the deterioration of the physical and mental health of some enemy prisoners #Time_is_running_out" https://t.me/resistmirror1/5404
These 11 people were alive last we saw, however long ago that was. It's likely at least one of these has since been killed, or has killed themself, but there are others that still want to come home, and have loved ones who want that dearly. But it seems Benjamin Netanyahu - "Satanyahu" - insists on playing twisted games with their fate, making it depend on Hamas' ability to meet "reasonable" yet impossible demands.
Instead, it's on to the next phase of genocide - making life for everyone stuck in Gaza impossible - hopefully forcing their long-favored solution of expelling Gaza's Arab population and making the place their own. They might plan to build a shorter and cheaper Ben Gurion canal right across Rafah, and perhaps to build new Jewish cities atop the rubble of Old Gaza. They won't care much about all the still-missing Palestinians buried in shreds far below, but they might find it uncomfortable to build on top of their own people, recalling how they consented to Netanyahu's plowing over those "pawns" along the way.
11/10
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