How a Ukrainian Fake Confirms Russia on ZNPP Invasion Claims

October 28, 2022 

The Energodar "Dead Commandos" video was briefly posted as proof that Ukrainian forces had staged a brazen assault on the Russian-held city surrounding Europe's largest nuclear reactor. Some retracted that in embarrassment when the video was revealed to be a hoax. In this post, I aim to reclaim this hoax video as evidence in the same case, but from another direction.

Invasion: Energodar - a Real Assault or a Staged Play? 

In the hours before a high-level team from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was to visit, Early on September 1, a battle broke out at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and the surrounding city of Energodar (or Enohodar). Ukrainian special forces allegedly crossed the Dnipro river and opened fire on Russian forces, trying to seize control of the area. It was surmised that Kiev's plan was to reclaim the nuclear plant, curtail the IAEA investigation there, and then use the agency's stay-on team as human shields while they launch attacks from the plant. Maybe they just wanted the ensuing battle to force the team back for their own safety and keep them from investigating the signs of Ukrainian shelling of the plant, as the Russians had requested. 

The importance of this allegation is highlighted by another alleged invasion attempt, on October 19 amid intensified Ukrainian shelling that knocked out power and water to the city. (RIA Novosti - RT) ...

Compiled reports at Athens News explain the September attack, as reported by pro-Russian local sources. Some 60 Ukrainian special forces operatives landed overnight "in the area of dachas north-east of the ZNPP and secretly occupied the initial lines of attack by 5 o'clock in the morning." That was when Ukrainian artillery opened fire on Russian forces at the ZNPP, hoping to crack the shell and let the commandos in. A larger second wave had set out from Nikopol in 2 barges to reinforce them, but Russian aircraft sunk these en route, "after which the entire capture plan was foiled, and part of the advanced assault group withdrew to the landing site, where it was pressed to the ground" and by 11 AM "now it is being finished off there." They also managed to squeeze in a shelling attack on "the alleged point of crossing the front by the IAEA mission." It sounds like no one escaped.

A crude mapping of the claims that came with this report, English labels added by me (black circle, "unknown wave" - see below):

Boris Rogozin "At the moment, 47 DRG fighters (infiltrators) have been killed, three have been taken prisoner (!), two are in serious condition between life and death. A group of 12 people is blocked on three sides and cut off from the water and boats, by 15:00 WHO will be finished. The operation was coordinated by MI6 officers from their headquarters in the suburbs of Kiev. All 64 people from the DRG have recently been trained in the UK and travelled from Warsaw to Odessa on 29 August." 

Add 10/29: AyazK tipped me off to a Rybar analysis including of barges used in the landing. Their infographic includes a view of one barge shown only half sunk and pouring smoke at the shore (mapped some ways west of the ZNPP - geolocation tweet), while another view they have claims to show one of several killed Ukrainian soldiers who washed up on the Nikopol shore. These 2 images are cropped together at right. 

Rybar also shows satellite images of two barges supposedly peeling off, on September 1, from a group of 12 long moored near Nikopol. "This happened for the first time in a year," they say. "With all our skepticism, we do not believe in the version about the insidious Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group that crossed the Dnieper, stole barges in Nikopol and drove them to the south coast to simulate the landing of Ukrainian troops on the south coast." End 10/29

I can't vouch for the details like numbers involved or whose plan it was, nor can I entirely prove there was an assault at all. But as I'll show, there probably was, and Ukraine's denials tend to confirm the fact. We'll need to consider the "Russian account" timeline of the attack:

* 5.20 first SOF team in place, artillery strikes from across the river. "Since 5:20 Energodar was subjected to the most severe artillery fire from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Arrivals were recorded in residential areas, reported dead and wounded civilians." (Rybar) 

* about 6 am the attack of the first wave of troops begins, and a second wave (2 barges) leaves Nikopol, expected arrival around 7.30.

* about 7.00 a.m. and after: "Russian aircraft (or helicopters) sank both barges with the second echelon, after which the entire capture plan was foiled, and part of the advanced assault group withdrew to the landing site, where it was pressed to the ground (now it is being finished off there)." 

* "at 8.00 the artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shelled the alleged point of crossing the front by the IAEA mission."

* before 8:59: video shows shelling on a street in Energodar on or near the IAEA route (depending what the route actually was)

* by 11 a.m.: the situation apparently settling but still not settled as fuller reports including deaths among the attackers emerge by 11:04, most claiming the violence was ongoing. 

Boris Rogozin at 11:04 AM local time: attack death toll of 47 so far, fighting expected to be done by 3PM. Yury Podolyak at 11:36 claimed "the loss of two platoons of the MTR of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and up to the battalion of the second wave on barges. That is about 300-400 people. Without any result." Telegram: Contact @yurasumy at 11:56 "The Russians, of course, have already liquidated almost all of this Ukrainian landing force. There was no chance of survival. ... this strategy was prepared by NATO experts."

Key details, images and audio posted by the Ukrainian side are largely consistent with these reports even as they disputed the narrative behind the evidence. Video posted at 9:28 and again at 9:28 - shows a tank on Kurchatova Street by city hall (47.4916788,34.6632712), driving NE towards the coast as if for battle there. At 11:16 AM local time, Saint Javelin posted audio from Enegodar sounding like clashes between opposing forces in the near distance. Hromadske at 12:17 PM: Since 5 am "the Russian occupying forces have not stopped constant mortar shelling ... Machine guns can be heard. ... Later, the Mayor announced that the occupiers were firing mortars and machine guns, and involved aviation (helicopters were circling over the city)." The helicopter photo below was included with this tweet (geolocation seems possible, but I leave it to anyone else). 

UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric would say of the day's events “We are glad that the Russian Federation did what it needed to do to keep our inspectors safe,” It's not clear if that relates to stopping an alleged effort to seize the plant, or to nothing in particular, but it was read as "UN thanks Russia for keeping nuclear team safe." (RT)

However... Yevhen Yevtushenko, Head of the Nikopol District Military Administration: "the Russian army is shelling Enerhodar ... to create a suitable picture for the IAEA commission and to form a pool of local residents who, under the media’s cameras, inform the commission about the attack on the city from our side of the reservoir." Source: Yevtushenko on Telegram; Dmytro Orlov, Mayor of Enerhodar, on Telegram; Enerhodar City Council on Facebook. (UP)

More to the point: "Russia simulates fighting in Enerhodar by shelling the area near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in order to disrupt a visit by an IAEA team, Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian President’s Office, said." (Euromaidan Press)

Coastal Shelling? 

One interesting angle of this I've been developing is the day's record of shelling attacks. team arrived at the plant - despite the morning's battle - The IAEA's September report (PDF) would fail to mention the battle (or staged performance?), and also notes no shelling or noteworthy developments at the ZNPP on this day. But Ukrainian sources said new "Russian" shelling of the plant triggered the emergency protection system and the 5th power unit was shut down." (Hromadske)  "A shell exploded near the first power unit. It is also reported that the reserve power supply line of the station at 330 kV was broken." (Rybar 9/1 9:28 am) A Sept. 1 Russian news video showed where a "Ukrainian" shell landed near the liquid nitrogen cooling station at the plant's south end, not far from reactor 1 ("first power unit"), blowing a crater in a raised mound, damaging a building to the west and some water pipes overhead. (video - geolocation - small view in the image below). 

This is the only ZNPP strike from the east that I've noticed, and it happened to come on this day when Kiev's forces might have new attack positions including to the east. 

This same morning, prior to a video posting at 8:58 AM local time, a shell was seen hitting a square next to a medical clinic in eastern Energodar (geolocated), from up the street to the northeast (my call). As it happens, it was quite near the IAEA's team's planned roue to the site, and was called a Russian attempt to stop them (Meduza). Podolyak mentioned Ukrainian shelling of "the alleged point of crossing the front by the IAEA mission," but this is probably another spot they'd pass well after "the front." And I'm not sure anyone knows the exact, planned route.

I noticed this trajectory from NE and the one at the plant from the east could well intersect at a coastal spot by Energodar (tweet or see here). Later I noticed another shell that day hit an apartment building across the street from the clinic impact. Hromadske Int. on Twitter. All three of these shells might have been fired from the same spot. One good option is shown below, 1.4 km from the clinic and apartment strikes, 6.8 km from the ZNPP impact. 

Landing sites given by Russian sources don't include this spot, and operational areas aren't clearly described. But maybe there was another landing here they didn't know about, or the ones they did had some guys sent this far in to launch some shells. Maybe the same people also escaped unnoticed and made it back to the north shore.

Kyiv Says it was All Staged, Stages Some "Proof"

It was all a Russian "simulation," according to the President's office, as noted above; "Russia simulates fighting in Enerhodar ... in order to disrupt a visit by an IAEA team" (Euromaidan Press) But the only ones caught simulating anything were some Ukrainian soldiers - likely involved in the real assault - playing dead on a beach. 

They caught themselves, and that was the idea. An edit of their video was posted  - apparently via some fake pro-Russian channel they ran (?), on the day after the assault, September 2. The idea was to trick Russian-affiliated channels into running the video as visual proof for the Russian reports of a foiled offensive

The bait was taken, by at least one channel. As Newsweek reported, Vladislav Pozdnyakov, who runs a right-wing pro-Russian Telegram channel "Male State" passed the video on, but then deleted that after "a Ukrainian channel posted the full video, showing some of the "dead" soldiers stand up, Bellingcat's Aric Toler first reported, noting that the footage was intended to trick Russia." 

New York Post: "it was all a sly ruse to embarrass the enemy. ... And it seems the ruse worked because the edited version of the clip showing the “dead” Ukrainians was picked up by Kremlin propagandist Vladislav Pozdnyakov. Immediately after Toler tweeted about the fake video, Pozdnyakov switched his Telegram channel to private. “Pozdnyakov is annoyed he got faked out,” Toler gloated in a tweet."

The video is viewable here, with some discussion, on Reddit, September 6. Toler has blocked me after ~0 contact, the dude is so "open-source", but ... here's his tweet linking to Pozdnyakov's post and to "The reveal of zombie soldiers from today." (9/6) post link: https://t.me/kristianudarov/855 (not visible to me) by Kristian Udarov, like the video stamp says. Is that the "Ukrainian Flag" conservative party leader? The MMA fighter? All the same? His Youtube channel looking like the fighter, and with patriotic flags. He seems well-connected. Was he involved in this?

AFAIK "Male State" is just as fake as the channel first publishing the video, or Pozdnyakov is not very bright. But either way, "multiple channels" on Telegram and others were fooled, and passed on this hoax video. It got around so that I had seen it on Twitter - in passing - and I didn't doubt it on first glance. I believed the reports of a foiled landing with losses, and this looked like video of that. If I had looked closer, I like to think I'd form doubts - there was not even an effort at fake blood anywhere - did they all suffer heart attacks? 

But others rejected the bait, some of them pointedly so. SITREP on Twitter, Sept 2: "IPsO shot a staged video of the corpses of their yesterday's failed landing party in #Energodar at #ZNPP and started spreading it in 🇷🇺 Telegram feeds. Tomorrow the 🇺🇦 media will start refuting it and accusing the Russians of being fakers." In a second tweet: "the "🇷🇺" cameraman has a GRU commander's watch. In short, it doesn't work, you fools. You don't have to bother with denials, anything is clear." 

Replies largely ridiculed their assessment, like: "Your fake is so fake you had to say it's Ukrainian fake." But it was a Ukrainian fake, although SITREP were wrong about "tomorrow." It was a few days before the hoax was revealed, on or by September 6. Maybe they kept hoping more people would be fooled before they finally had Udarov call time on the operation. 

It was "intended to trick Russia" by showing them to be gullible, and therefore total liars. They nabbed "Male State," a few un-notable others. "It seems the ruse worked." It worked slightly better than the reckless, criminal, and hushed-up assault on Energodar they were probably engaged with just before this video stunt.

How Ukraine's Fake Video Confirms Russian Claims 

We know it was Ukrainian troops who staged this vide. Most of should realize that doesn't mean the whole alleged operation must be a lie. In fact, it might do more to support the "Russian" claims than to discredit them. I had to ask who, when, where, why, and why not.

Who? Russian reports sound like all attackers were killed, captured, or sure to be that way, with none escaped. But there may be a whole landing they didn't know about and some escapes they didn't notice or report, and this might be them. Otherwise, it's other soldiers who went to the shore to play out Russia's claims to make them seem fake. 

The one filming wears a Soviet-themed (costume?) wristwatch. Ukrainian GRU issue like SITREP said? The "killed" are only about six in number (not "3 dozen"). They wear patches someone else knows better. I see a sonnerad (Nazi black sun) on one of them. Similar patches are shown with US cash and such the "killed" were said to have on them. Simple props, obviously. 

When seems easy: it's 11:05 am by that man's watch. But it could be set wrong, and 11:05 on what day? I'm not sure. Is the first postings on Sept. 2 after or before 11:05? Can 9/2 be ruled out? Even if it can't be, I suspect this is filmed on the 1st, as the fighting was wrapping up across the river.

Where: on a washed-out strip of kind of north-south coast. The solar azimuth at that time on September 1 or 2 would be 145° SE (NOAA). This at right isn't exactly how to draw a 145° line, but it should give an idea. The local coastline is on an angle something like 45° different - so the coast here runs south, something like 190°. That's quite approximate, but it helps narrow things down.

To the east is the river with land visible a few kilometers beyond, and to the west, a cut bank all along, with small, dense trees along it - maybe an uphill path to the north - some land and/or larger trees extend out in the water to the north and to the south ... note this panoramic view makes the fairly straight coast seem to curve extremely.

I found no such spot around Energodar on the south bank, but a few possible matches back on the Ukrainian side. This one by Illinka (47.5849009,34.6683481) is the best fit and the closest, due north of Energodar's east coast (2 sub-spots - yellow box below)- trees in the water not so clear here or anywhere, but there are some right at the edge - maybe the water level has risen (but historically it seems quite steady - see Google Earth). A couple of other possible matches on the north shore noted here.

Why? The idea, presumably, was to cast all the Russian allegations as fake by getting them as attached as possible to something that was fake and under their control. But their denials and absurd counter-accusations would have been widely bought anyway, and succeeded well enough without this stunt. The unneeded help just adds to the reasons to believe Ukraine really did launch this brazen assault.

An offensive on Energodar would explain the mortar and rifle fire heard, the tanks and helicopters sent out, and the observed shelling that likely traces back to a coastal landing site. (Add 10/29) It would explain the 2 barges that set out, the one seen half-sunk, and the dead Ukrainian troops washing up. It would explain Kiev's allowance of an IAEA visit that they previously complained "would legitimise Russia's presence" at the ZNPP [Energoatom]. Maybe they meant to end that presence before the visit and have it legitimize their presence instead? 

And the reported offensive ending in deadly failure could explain Ukrainian forces staging this video at that place and at that time.

Allegedly, the assault had been routed, with deaths to explain away, sometime before the earliest report I've seen to mention deaths, at 11:04 am. One minute later, this video was made. Did they rush to the shore to stage this so quickly to discredit even earlier reports they heard? Maybe they already know about the alleged losses because they witnessed them actually occur? If barges were sunk, or the advance team never returned, or both, others would know pretty quickly. Their government couldn't admit to this mission or any related deaths. And they would soon be forced to deny the Russian claims. 

Any mission survivors might have time to discuss this on the crossing back, and decide the first thing they would do back on land is to play dead and make those claims seem fake. And, of course, other comrades on land could decide to do the same. Their bosses might appreciate it, you know, "just in case" the imminent Russian claims weren't fake enough on their own.

Why not? It would be a pretty astounding thing to most people - a plan to snatch a city and a nuclear plant with a military assault just hours before international inspectors were set to arrive. It would endanger or at least disrespect the IAEA, whose Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi headed the team. It would risk forcing them back from their mission just to avoid the new and optional battle zone. Kiev was probably more than willing to risk that. I believe they did risk it, and largely for that reason. 

If they had done all this, we could surmise they have no interest in the truth, and no concern about anyone holding them to account. And true to that form, when their reckless violence was exposed, they resorted to victim-blaming denial and - here - to outright fakery in a "clever ruse" to make the Russians look like the fakers. As often happens, the Ukrainians failed in a ridiculous and criminal mission, and they failed at covering it up. It's only through massive external assistance and international embargoes on truth that this regime in Kiev avoids the embarrassment and accountability it deserves for its ongoing crimes against reality and against Humanity. 

Everybody Knows Ukraine Has Been Shelling The Zaporizhya NPP

< Ukraine's Systematic Shelling of the ZNPP (masterlist - f/c)

October 14, 2022 (last edits 10/16)

The Russians Know It

Amid their invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces famously took over security at the Zaporizhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) - the largest in Europe - in early March. They took it by force, as it had to be, when Ukrainian forces based there fired of the first tanks sent in, sparking a prolonged firefight at the plant. They damaged the plant but won the clash, and since then, they have "militarized" the plant to a disputed degree, basing soldiers, supply trucks, and lightly armed APCs there, along with one apparent Grad rocket launcher that's seen, and allegedly much more. 

Russian forces at the plant have also kept tabs on security incidents like artillery shelling attacks directed at their positions or anywhere else at the plant. Since mid-July, they've complained of "systematic" UAF shelling and drone attacks at the plant. For example ... Statement by ambassador Mikhail Ulyanov, to the IAEA Board of Governors, 15 September 2022:

According to the Ministry of Defense of Russia, since July 18, 2022, Ukrainian armed formations have shelled the territory of the ZNPP and its infrastructure more than 30 times, firing more than 120 artillery shells and using at least 16 kamikaze drones. 

The satellite city of ZNPP Enerhodar, where the station's employees and their families live, was shelled more than 70 times during the same period (10 times from drones and more than 60 times from barrel artillery and multiple launch rocket systems). As a result of these attacks, there are casualties and injuries among the employees of the nuclear power plant and residents of the city.

We believe that now no one can doubt that missile and artillery strikes on the station and attacks with the help of combat drones are carried out by the Ukrainian armed forces. 

The content of this post will bear out that seemingly bold claim. Even those who strenuously deny the facts tacitly acknowledge their reality in various ways. Everybody Knows it's unaccountable Ukraine that has been shelling the Zaporizhya NPP. Some call it out and some hush it up and even assist it, but everyone who matters realizes it's a campaign of nuclear blackmail; Kyiv creates a threat they control, that will persist until their demands are met. That would mean a Russian surrender of the plant to Ukrainian militarization, or to some neutral status Kyiv could unaccountably subvert. 

However legitimate one thinks those demands are, the tactics used, that so many employ, assist, or enable through silence ... well, it's a damn shame. I'm at a loss for words on the significance of it, but here it is. 

It's the Russians, not the Ukrainians or their enablers, keeping public tabs on this shelling. Below: a map made by the Russian Ministry of Defense showing attacks up to August 27, apparently being shown during the September visit of a high-level delegation from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). I've been able to geolocate and confirm many of these impacts, enough to note the 3 in front of reactor 6 were the most recent, and just placed arbitrarily in front of the reactor. Actual locations and more at this post. 

Over and over, the Russians say the rockets and artillery shells come in from the north, northwest, and northeast, across the Dnipro river, where Ukrainian forces operate - Nikopol, Marganets, etc.. Kiev denies it, even as they claim the north bank gets shelled the other way all the time, with shells flying out of the pant. One likely case of that has appeared on video (my analysis), but the real scale of it is unclear. Yet Ukraine's forces never retaliate, we're to understand. Instead, the Russians retaliate against themselves. If so, and they're keeping tabs properly, they did it more than 30 times in just over a month, besides hammering the surrounding town even harder.

The Locals Know It

From the same statement by Ulyanov: 

"During the visit of the IAEA mission to the ZNPP, the residents of Energodar conveyed a collective appeal to the IAEA Director General in this regard. In particular, it says: "In the area of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe - Zaporizhya - there is a critical situation. The Armed Forces of Ukraine conduct regular shelling of the territory of the station. Mr. Grossi, leaders of the IAEA member countries, We, the residents of the Zaporizhzhia region, appeal to you to stop the provocations of Ukraine aimed at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. We ask you to strongly condemn the actions of the Ukrainian leadership to escalate the situation around the Zaporizhya nuclear power plant and warn of responsibility to the world community in the event of continued shelling of the station."

"This appeal was signed by 20,647 residents of the region. Unfortunately, there was no room in the CEO's Report for even a mere mention of this collective appeal, which is crucial to understanding what is happening."

There were earlier claims that 50,000 had signed the petition (Tass), but 20,000 sounds like the final answer. A photo claims to show all the signatures, 15 per page and piled up thick. A citation: “We ask you to strongly condemn the actions of the Ukrainian leadership to escalate the situation around the Zaporizhzhya NPP and warn of responsibility before the international community in case the shelling of the plant continues.” (Global Euronews) 

There was no mention of this letter in the IAEA's report, and they have not condemned Ukraine's actions by name, in a way that can allow accountability or consequences. But to be fair, they haven't done as the Ukrainians demand and blame the Russians for shelling their own "militarized" nuclear plant. That's what makes them "cowardly." 

Energoatom Management Knows It 

Energoatom is the Ukrainian state utility that runs the ZNPP and other nuclear plants. On July 16 its president, Petro Kotin (right, from Yahoo News) said "Now the occupiers are using the NPP as a bridgehead to deploy new military equipment. ... Missile complexes are brought there, from which the other side of the Dnipro is shelled – this is the territory of Nikopol.” (UA Position)

This claim, true or otherwise, helped justify a Ukrainian kamikaze drone attack on Russian forces at the plant a few days later. When Ukraine first attacked on July 18, or July 20 by most accounts (it's confused), they were open about it, claiming to have killed 3 Russian soldiers, as they released a video of the strike with rousing music on the 22nd. It was the first of many attacks on the territory of the ZNPP, and oddly, the only one Ukraine owned up to. It sure set something in motion, but just what remains disputed. 

There was no way to blame the Russians for that first attack. So the good patriots at Energoatom blamed no one. They said nothing about the reckless attack within the plant. They were worried about attacks from there, where the direct nuclear danger is from return fire that attacks might provoke. But they don't seem to care about the actual, direct danger when it appears, because of whose war and propaganda effort they're involved with. At least, I haven't seen any mention, and one news report notes "the company also did not comment on the drone attack by Ukrainian forces."

Of course, Kotin and Energoatom claim that Russia was behind all the other attacks since that, all of which Ukraine denies (with no exceptions I've seen yet). They will have no forensic or even logical reason to think the Russians are shelling themselves at the plant. They will have a script issued by Kyiv telling them to say that, regardless of what they know to be true.

According to Energoatom on Telegram, the August 6 attack on the dry spent fuel storage site was "clearly carried out by the Russian military, ... Experts, ... reached a unanimous conclusion: the shelling was carried out by the Russian military" from the east or southeast. That's roughly the opposite of correct; rocket tubes can bend forward, but soil will not be displaced backwards. They claim to have consulted multiple experts, none of whom read this scene properly. I'm sure they were capable, but none of them was willing. 

Enegoatom also failed to mention the cluster munitions this rocket dropped to the northwest, injuring a security guard. Monitor on Massacre Marketing: Failing StopFake's Propaganda Re:ZNPP (libyancivilwar.blogspot.com) See also the pic below, where I put a "spin" on one of their favorite "Russian lies."

Kotin, from the same message: "Russia continues to cynically lie to the world about the situation at the Zaporizhya NPP and use the plant as a lever for nuclear blackmail. And only the return of the nuclear facility under the full control of Ukraine will be able to guarantee the stable operation of one of the largest nuclear plants in the world!" 

After the IAEA visit, Kotin would say "all of the Rosatom representatives lied to the mission... This will not benefit the Russian fascists, but the opposite." (Yahoo News) Says someone who knows he's got his hand on a nuclear blackmail lever.

A couple weeks later, at the South Ukraine NPP they also run, Energoatom released a 15-second video of a Russian missile hitting 300m from the plant grounds on September 19, but also showing the exhaust trails of 2 missiles fired from about 50m outside the grounds moments before, Of course, they failed to mention this act of provocation that endangered the plant. (Ukrainian Militarization: the "Root Cause" of Attacks on the South Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant?) 

Energoatom are silent about Ukrainian attacks on nuclear plants, or worse yet they blame Russia for the attacks. They ignore provocations launched from nuclear plants Ukraine has militarized, as they decry any retaliation and knowingly pass it off as unprovoked and criminal. This kind of propaganda might be good for Ukraine's war effort, but it does nothing to discourage attacks. In fact, it encourages attacks to keep making a politically useful case on the world stage. In effect, Energoatom mangement cover for the militarization of Ukraine's nuclear plants and Kyiv's nuclear blackmail over the one it can't militarize. Just as they fire from some populated areas and remotely terrorize others, it's another cheat to give the Ukrainian exceptionalists another edge on the Russians.  

From a nuclear safety standpoint, it's obviously a terrible policy and practice. In a sane world, Energoatom deserves to lose their role as plant managers, at the ZNPP and across the board. General director Igor Murashov was removed at the start of October, apparently by Russian decree (see below). Within days, Energoatom itself was removed in the same way. 

Reuters, October 5: "The Zaporizhya nuclear plant is now on the territory of the Russian Federation and, accordingly, should be operated under the supervision of our relevant agencies," RIA news agency quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin as saying. Rosatom will be brought in to replace Enegoatom. But its president Petro Kotin replied it was he who was done cooperating with the Russians; "All further decisions regarding the operation of the station will be made directly at the central office of Energoatom ... We will continue to work under Ukrainian law, within the Ukrainian energy system, within Energoatom," Kotin said. We'll see how well they "manage" the plant from that far away. 

This only happened after Russia annexed the territory, following on a disputed vote of the locals. But in my opinion, the lying war pigs had already earned a stern firing separately from that.

Plant Workers Probably Know It ...

 ... but they work for Energoatom that works for the perpetrators, and they apparently they know to follow the company line or to keep silent. One engineer "managed to communicate" anonymously with the BBC, reiterating a version of the management line published August 13. He worried that destruction of power lines linking the facility to the Ukrainian energy system would lead to blackouts and a nuclear disaster like at Fukushima, after the Russians "deliberately put us in a 'blackout'' to "help" us later." with "a plan to connect the ZNPP to the Russian energy system ... they tell us: "If "neo-Nazis from the Armed Forces break your last line, we are ready to help you" ... "Right now, they are very close. Maybe tomorrow, maybe the day after tomorrow they will break the last line."

How does he know it's the Russians attacking the plant and its power lines, and not their "Neo-Nazi" boogeymen? Well, he'd say the "Nazis" don't exist, but also ... Russia's atomic utility Rosatom got their hands on plant maps, he says, "and then the shelling started. They know where to shoot to make it 'hurt', but 'not lethally'. They are like prison guards or FSB officers, they hit you in such a way that you don't get bruised, but you remember it forever," said the engineer, who seems to identify with the plant to an unusual and sort of poetic degree.

He realizes the fire is coming in largely from the northwest and thus appears to be Ukrainian, but ... it's all faked in a Russian false-flag, he claims, "The station has a site where heavy metal structures such as fresh steam generators are stored. So now there are Russian artillery installations on it, which are shelling ZNPP, simulating "arrivals" from Nikopol," a Ukrainian-held city across the river to the northwest. 

The engineer spoke on or before August 13, maybe two days after Energoatom failed to confirm a best example of fake NW fire by declaring the Aug. 6 rocket came in the opposite way. And consider this early, there had only been about three attacks total (Aug. 5, 6, 11)

But he was adamant and "I personally saw the shelling from this site, saw the exit from there and where it flew. From the moment of "exit" to the moment of "arrival" no more than three seconds passed. Each of the ZNPP employees saw and heard it. And he knows where he is flying from and where." Everybody knows, he says. They all saw the whole thing. They has stood there and watched a missile being fired way up and landing probably less than a kilometer away (depending what spot he alleged). That smells of suspicious omniscience, employed to explain a fictional claim.

Some Arrested Plant Workers Probably Know It Quite Well

On August 17, following 4 UAF artillery attacks on the plant in a week, Russian-linked sources address the reported arrest of two plant workers in Energodar: artillery spotters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who "helped to strike at the territory of the nuclear power plant and the city. Two detainees are named. I don't feel like sharing the names here, but jobs: one was "a security guard at a 750 kV open switchgear (ORU-750)" (area hit by shelling on August 5) and the other is "an engineer." (not the same one that spoke to BBC?) Russian news video shows the arrest raid, a man laying face-down at gunpoint. We're shown notebooks full of numbers and diagrams, including of military vehicles. They had a crude but accurate model of the nuclear plant built up from scraps - see below. There's a raised security perimeter along the right lines, all 6 reactor blocks (but not turbine halls), and important nearby structures, including both special buildings, #2 with a "melted" smokestack and #1 with none at all. But they painted the stripes! They must just love their work. Source: Local administration head Vladimir Rogov on Telegram

Former ZNPP Director Murashov Probably Knows It

As widely reported, the ZNPP's general director Igor Murashov was arrested on Sept. 30, blindfolded and driven off by Russian troops to an unknown location. Also well-known but less-reported, he was released on or by October 2, and allowed to go home to his family but not to manage the plant any longer. It wasn't immediately clear why, nor what he knew about the Ukrainian shelling - maybe he was found to shelter accomplices like the guys mentioned above. 

Less know outside of Russia, that is alleged - https://tass.com/politics/1518339:

"Renat Karchaa, adviser to the general director of Rosenergoatom, on Wednesday said the former chief of the Zaporozhskaya NPP, Igor Murashov, had passed to Ukraine data about the plant, including Russian troops there" including, as he said, "Absolutely all data concerning the presence of Russia servicemen inside the perimeter," 

"Earlier, the head of Energodar, Alexander Volga, said that Murashov coordinated terrorist activities at the plant and in the city. He was expelled to the territory controlled by Kiev after admitting to having ties with the Ukrainian special services. In footage shown by the Rossiya-24 television channel on Monday the general director of the ZNPP said that he had passed information on the state of affairs at the plant to representatives of the Kiev regime. He said he was aware that the shelling of the strategic facility was done by the armed forces of Ukraine and could cause emergencies. Vladimir Rogov, chairman of the We Are Together with Russia civil society group, said Murashov had cooperated with the Security Service of Ukraine against his own free will, as he could have been blackmailed."

The UN and IAEA Know It 

Acting Governor of the Zaporozhye Region Evgeny Balitsky said in an interview with RIA Novosti that IAEA employees at the ZNPP know who is shelling the station, but they are publicly silent,  https://twitter.com/Natalia96058112/status/1578613338941968384

UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric thanked Russia for protecting the IAEA team on their way to visit the plant. “We are glad that the Russian Federation did what it needed to do to keep our inspectors safe,” It's not clear if that relates to stopping an alleged effort to seize the plant ahead of the inspection, to the shelling of Energodar that day, or to both. RT: UN thanks Russia for keeping nuclear team safe. 

Russian-linked sources relate the invasion plan: overnight, a Special Operations unit landed "in the area of dachas north-east of the ZNPP and secretly occupied the initial lines of attack by 5 o'clock in the morning." Then at 5:20 Ukrainian artillery opened fire on Russian forces inside the plant. and "at about 6 am the attack of the first wave of troops began" as "a second wave (2 barges) left Nikopol" to reinforce the effort. "The forward detachment was supposed to knock down the forces of the National Guard from positions and break into the territory of the station. But the troops withstood the first strike, and at around 0700, Russian aviation (or helicopters) sank both barges with the second echelon, after which the entire capture plan was thwarted." (compiled sources) 

So UAF allegedly tried to conquer the area immediately ahead of the inspectors, raising dangers that many would answer by turning back. But after some mid-distance gunfire, explosions and helicopters along the coast, things changed and the mission pushed ahead with thanks.

This same morning, I think well prior to a video posting at 9:46 AM local time, we can see part of this violence - a powerful shell was seen hitting a sidewalk in eastern Energodar (geolocated), from up the street to the northeast (my call from crater and debris at right - and I suspect a steep vertical angle like this). As it happens, it was right along the IAEA's team's planned roue to the site, and no surprise, it was called a Russian attempt to stop the visit (Meduza). 

Less widely known, another shell landed inside the nuclear plant this day, September 1. It's unclear just when but we can know where and that it came from the east, blowing a crater in a raised mound, damaging a building to the west, and some water pipes overhead, near the liquid nitrogen cooling station. (video - geolocation). This is the only ZNPP strike from the east that I've noted, and it happened to come on this day when Kiev's forces might have new attack positions, ones that have little to no north component. Normally, east is a direction that better implicates Russia. But on this day, that becomes less relevant.

There is a coastal spot where both lines of fire intersect, from which the shells in both those attacks might have been fired, albeit at very different ranges (less than 2km vs. more than 7km). The map below shows alleged landing sites for the UAF attackers, as given in the same compilation cited above, It doesn't include this spot (black circle), but maybe this was another place the first wave "secretly occupied" for a while, or maybe there was another group landing the Russians didn't even know about. 

But then - sorry - that probably goes past what the inspectors or the UN would know. 

Since that eventful morning, the International Atomic Energy Agency's team has been there, seen that open letter and the signatures, seen and even analyzed some of the damage firsthand, and then left 2 observers behind as most of them returned home. They're clear the plant was shelled on several occasions, threatening operations. But in their September 5 report, before and since, the IAEA apparently cannot say who is to blame, aside from someone within the class "all parties." 

Western Leaders Know It 

A September 9 statement from "the ministers of Foreign Affairs of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Ukraine and senior officials from the Republic of Korea, Switzerland, the United States of America, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy" says: "We emphasize that Russia’s seizure and militarization of the ZNPP is the root cause of the current threats in the field of nuclear safety and security. We recall that the heightened risks of a nuclear incident will remain dangerously high as long as Russia remains present on the site of ZNPP."

This passage suggests Western leaders cannot pin the actual shelling of the Russian-occupied plant on the Russians. They would do so if they could. Instead, they focus on the "root cause" in that Russian occupation. Now how does this translate to blame for the actual shelling attacks? Two options:

* The root cause of Russians attacking the plant is ... because Russian forces are there

* The root cause of Ukrainians attacking the plant is ... because Russian forces are there

Obviously it's the latter, and this emphasis on the 'root cause' rather than actual cause shows that Western leaders understand that Ukraine is responsible for the actual and deliberately reckless attacks on the plant. And they won't stop unless Russia leaves. They could demand that Ukraine stop, but they share the same goal as the attackers - to demonize and complicate Russia's occupation of the plant and hopefully force it to end. So they say nothing about the actual attacks. The only thing they even imply about the direct shelling of the ZNPP is that it's completely justified by Russia's presence, and so it should probably continue, or maybe even escalate. 

Obviously, The Ukrainian Forces DOING It - And Their Relevant Leaders - Know What They're Doing. 

Maybe they don't all know it, but President Zelenskyy for one seems to get it, so I imagine quite a few brighter people also realize. 

It's his government that initially resisted an IAEA visit and investigation into the shelling. BBC, Aug. 3: "The IAEA's director-general said he was trying to put together a mission as soon as possible to visit the plant but this required the approval of both the Ukrainian and Russian sides ...  In June, Ukraine's state nuclear company [Energoatom] said Ukraine had not invited the IAEA - and any visit would legitimise Russia's presence there."  Bloomberg Aug. 8: "Russia told diplomats it’s ready to welcome international monitors" but "[IAEA director-General] Grossi said he needs permission from Ukraine’s government" but he still didn't have it. Al Jazeera, Aug. 8: "In a statement, Russia’s foreign ministry said it wanted the (IAEA) to visit ... but that Kyiv was blocking a potential visit. ... Zakharova also claimed Moscow had done everything it could to facilitate a visit by the UN’s nuclear watchdog to the plant but that Kyiv saw it as “beneficial to keep the IAEA away”."

"Mikhail Podolyak (& hence the Zelensky Office) are skeptical about the IAEA visit to the ZNPP. “International institutions and mediation missions look extremely ineffective, extremely cowardly. ...You don’t trust them already at the entrance,” said Podolyak." (Evdokimova) They could be another "Russian Propaganda front" like Amnesty International! You don't need people like snooping around.

The mission pushed ahead, arriving in Ukraine, crossing through Ukrainian territory as Kiev demanded, then faced shelling after it crossed to the Russian side, and UAF allegedly tried to conquer the area immediately ahead of the inspectors, again, raising dangers that are maybe best answered by turning back ... but after Russia blew some things up, the mission pushed ahead with thanks.

And what did the commander-in-chief of the alleged attacks have to say? Once the team arrived, Zelenskyy said "Today, the IAEA mission arrived at Zaporizhzhia NPP. It's good that it happened. The fact itself despite all the provocations by the Russian military and the cynical shelling of Enerhodar and the territory of the plant. Ukraine did everything to make this mission happen. But it is bad that the occupiers are trying to turn this IAEA mission - a really necessary one - into a fruitless tour of the plant. I believe that this will be prevented." I suspect he had just TRIED to prevent it and failed.

No one was explicitly called out. The motives and methods stayed about the same, and attacks continued into September and October before Zelenskyy "said the only way to ensure radiation safety near Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), as well as in the rest of Ukraine and Europe, is "the complete demilitarization of the territory" surrounding the plant." (Newsweek Oct. 6) 

He suggests once the Russians are gone, attacks from all parties will stop. He thinks the Russians WON'T attack it then ... because they ONLY shell the places they are? And, of course, he thinks his own forces will finally stop attacking the plant then, if they ever were - which they weren't, except for the one time. So it's the first thing. 

One way or another (it's the other), he insists the blame is all on Russia. But until his demands are met, it's Zelenskyy who seems quite sure someone will keep shelling the place and denying "radiation safety" to a lot of people far and wide. What do we call that, and how do we respond to it?

Failing StopFake's Propaganda Re:ZNPP

October 12-13, 2022 

Fake: Ukraine Shells Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant - August 25, 2022 -  https://www.stopfake.org/en/fake-ukraine-shells-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant/

Summary: "The Ukrainian Armed Forces did not shell the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the city of Enerhodar. An analysis of missile trajectories and the nature of the damage confirms that strikes were carried out from the territories controlled by Russian occupation troops. The Russian propaganda video shows footage of another facility, the Zaporizhzhia thermal power station, which is about 7 kilometres away from the nuclear facility and which stopped operating back in May due to a shortage of coal."

Grade: F

First, two debatable errors in the cited report from "RT propagandist Alexei Repin." 

* 1 This said (translated): "the shell of the Armed Forces of Ukraine landed in one of the pumping stations at the end of July." 

** Possible error or misleading description - might refer to July 18/19/20: acknowledge UA drone attack on military tent camp, BM21 Grad MLRS. The 20th is the most common given date for this, but CNN heard it was the 19th and at least one Russian source says it was the 18th. To be reconciled. Both hits we know of were near the spray ponds that employ pumps - or maybe "pumping station" was another, less-interesting, part of that attack, or maybe it was hit in another attack (but there were no others in late July I know of), or it's just a made-up Russian lie - not certain.  

* 2 failing to note that at least some footage was from the nearby Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant, quite some ways from the nuclear plant.

** It was. See below - "Some Hits"

Next, three terrible errors on StopFake's end:

* Error 1 (compound): Aug. 24 RT report on "numerous evidence of shelling ... after the [UA attack] at the end of July" is misread as evidence from a single attack "at the beginning of July" (but Repin is also cited with "end of July"). From that, they link all images in the video report as alleging one July attack, but finding instead the singular event happened on August 5: The damaged building was site of July attack, AND the rocket tail as "the remains of the shell that destroyed the pumping station" then, and they decided that yet another building, "according to Repin, was shelled at the end of July" 

** In fact, none if it goes together, and the report never said it did. That's 3 or 4 different ("numerous") incidents at different locations: 

*** The LATE July attack probably means the one around the 20th, which was done by Ukrainian-fielded, Polish-made Warmate drones, This is not disputed. No aftermath of this is shown in Repin's report.

*** It was afternoon of August 6 when the rocket landed next to spent fuel storage (location: 47.5145081,34.5923875 - south of storage site's front gate - northern grounds) - just the one Uragan  220mm rocket was reportedly used "in cassette" - with cluster munitions, at least 10 of which have been seen after NW of where the spent tube impacted, displacing soil to the southeast. Estimated trajectory so far: ~140-142 degrees SE, from ~320-322 NW. https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/09/ukraines-systematic-shelling-of-znpp.html StopFake adds another small error by saying this was on August 5, not the 6th as reported, or the 7th as some decided based on reports then (and so they also decided the building damage happened then, on the 5th). 

*** It was August 11 when the shown building was damaged - location: 47.50791,34.5870228 - southern grounds - called "hydroshop" (a decent guess for "pumping station") - other spots were reportedly hit as well, in a UAF attack using 4 152mm shells and a "Hellfire" rocket - this impact is to the north wall, hit from the north - exact angle unclear - see images below -  https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/10/maxar-and-cnn-turn-blind-eye-to-august.html

*** another building was damaged but not clear when or even where - see below.

* Error 2: getting building sides mixed up for the Aug. 11 incident, to suggest that shelling was made up; "after the “shelling” the canopy over the door and the air conditioner on the wall show no signs of damage."    

** That's on the building's WEST side. The north side is torn wide open. It's evident we're looking out a different wall with far more "windows" in another view. That's the one that was damaged. Also note that 2 weeks later, the scene has been partly cleaned up. 

* Error 3: For the August 6 incident, accepting the "expert" trajectory assessment from Energoatom: "Experts, after analyzing where the rocket launcher projectiles were fired from and taking into account the angle of inclination of the rocket stuck in the ground, reached a unanimous conclusion: the shelling was carried out by the Russian military - approximately from the industrial zone located between the nuclear plant and the city of Energodar." Their third image shows it hitting a slightly wrong spot from the east or southeast. 

That's roughly the opposite of correct. It assumes the rocket plowed in with no bending (as they usually do), but displaced soil almost backwards on its trajectory, instead of the usual forward. That just doesn't happen, while bending sometimes does. Therefore, a better reading is the opposite one:  

Energoatom's experts also ignored the spread of cluster bomblets all to the north and northwest. That's what injured the "employee" - he was a security guard, per Russian reports, and probably at the booth guarding the spent fuel site. That was targeted like both sides say, and it was targeted with cluster munitions, which Energoatom don't even mention. The Russians mentioned it, and even showed us the impacts, or let the present media show us. (#9 here didn't detonate = #11 is seen in later footage, connection to this shelling unclear - other impact likely but unseen, especially among the NW trees)

Here is the Energoatom experts' lazy reading compared to: 

- my trench-based visual estimate, 

- Russian mapped claim (RU1 by literal angle from impact, RU2 from cited launch spot to impact - their map just points to a spot near the plant but not even in it), 

- by cluster bomblet spread (a best case from an incomplete area), and finally, 

- a new idea - pre-deflection actual path, to help fit with cluster spread, which wind can only have a small part in. Noting the bend forward is also a bit to the left ... maybe the trench reflects a deflection to the left, or just shows the bend forward as much as the trajectory. Maybe the best line over the dirt is less from the rocket and more from a bit to its left, and would point back more to the north, questioning the Russian claim as to the firing area. To consider further.

Some hits for StopFake:

* Same scene identified between 2 images, even noting the appearance of a spiderweb in between!

** Yes, that's the same scene. Great investment of time. They just got the date, thr relevance to other incidents, the firing direction, and the perpetrator wrong. An example of what they missed: area 2 with no displaced soil - that's NOT the forward direction like Kiev's "experts" decided "unanimously." Instead, it's in the box at left they cropped off. The matching displaced soil was not worth noting, after all.

* Another building with broken glass may be at the Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant instead. 

** One scene from the video is from the TPP gate rather than at the NPP, as can be seen at the Google Maps link they give (street view and photos, with some things added and some bits now missing). Maybe this building is hiding in there, but it's not placed anywhere. The building and view are so generic, it might be at the ZNPP like the other footage, even though I can't clearly place it. I ruled out a few possible matches, but one building in the north middle could still be it (north side of its south wing). 

StopFake decided this is another "building, which according to Repin, was shelled at the end of July," This leaves open that all the footage - none of which StopFake was able to place - was actually at the thermal plant. In fact, they say up top "the Russian propaganda video shows footage of another facility, the Zaporizhzhia thermal power station." But to accept the Energoatom analysis, they must agree at least the "August 5" incident also shown was at the ZNPP, so at least some footage must have been relevant evidence, and as such, it deserved more respect than StopFake was willing to give it. 

One Month of "Russians Shelling Themselves" in Donetsk

October 10, 2022

(rough, incomplete) last edits 10/18

In my previous post on the September 19 Donetsk shelling attack and related tweets, I noted some other attack scenes that came attached to some reports. A market area and 2 homes probably do relate to that day. But a burning truck was actually 2 days earlier. Other scenes on different days I saw along the way to figuring that out were intriguing. There were more than the six seven incidents I'll cover here, spanning almost exactly one month from August 23 to September 22. 

Local authorities and Russian sources generally report these as UAF fire from the northwest, where Ukrainian forces have for years encircled and allegedly terrorized the city. that, while pro-Kiev sources cast doubt or overtly blame Donetsk Peoples' Republic forces or their Russian allies for the shelling, intentionally, as a "provocation" just to make Ukraine look bad.

Applying quick but sound ballistic analysis to available images, I find that - with one unexpected exception - the shells in these attacks that killed dozens of locals and wounded many more appear to have originated from the northwest, at a few different angles. It's still physically possible DPR or Russian forces could have carried out these attacks from around the NW limits of Donetsk. But that was always a stupid victim-blaming conspiracy theory that seems to cover for ongoing, somewhat genocidal state-sponsored terrorism.

August 23, Clashing Claims:

https://lenta.ru/news/2022/08/23/damage/

"Ukrainian troops shelled the building of the administration of the head of the DPR in the center of Donetsk. "A fire broke out in the building. Broken bricks, parts of cladding and metal structures are scattered everywhere in the district, "eyewitnesses said. The head of the DPR Denis Pushilin was not injured."

Including other shelling this day, "the number of civilians affected by the shelling increased to eight people. The mayor of the city of Donetsk, Alexei Kulemzin, said that two people were killed and six people were injured from the next blow of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they are provided with the necessary medical care."

https://focus.ua/voennye-novosti/526415-pryamoe-popadanie-v-donecke-nanesli-udar-po-administracii-pushilina-foto-video

The Russian authorities could organize strikes on the occupation administration of the head of the "DPR" Denis Pushilin on August 23 in Donetsk. Their goal is to justify the attacks on Ukrainian government buildings on Independence Day. This is written by analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Some conspiracy theorists there. Did they really say that?

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-23

By Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

Russian officials may have conducted a false flag event in Donetsk City on August 23 to justify attacks against Ukrainian government buildings on August 24, Ukrainian Independence Day. Social media networks in Donetsk City reported that a strike caused damage to the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) administrative building, where DNR Head Denis Pushilin works.[11] Pushilin was reportedly absent at the time of the strike. Russian media framed the attack as a direct Ukrainian strike on a DNR government building, potentially to set information conditions for retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian government buildings on Ukrainian Independence Day.[12] 

August 23, Cameras Not Lying:

https://focus.ua/voennye-novosti/526415-pryamoe-popadanie-v-donecke-nanesli-udar-po-administracii-pushilina-foto-video

Location: south part of Voroshylovs'kyi district, on Puskina blvd. - 47.9972727,37.8021528 - 2011 street view below - this is the west-facing facade, hit in 2 spots- I think from the left/north. Either way, it must be partly from the west. 

Someone else could say a lot more about this, especially with more than the one image. I suppose a Russian false-flag attack is physically possible ... they run areas to the northwest just past Donetsk city limits, around 8-12 well-inhabited kilometers from this building. They would want to make it look like the Ukrainian "Nazis" did it right? If so, they succeeded, because ... it looks like the Ukrainians "Nazis" did it. In better detail, the following cases tend to look just the same.

September 2: Clashing Claims

https://www.mk-donbass.ru/incident/2022/09/02/centr-donecka-popal-pod-obstrel-vfu-est-zhertvy.html

As the mayor of Donetsk said in his official telegram channel, the AFU again struck at the center of Donetsk. Under fire was the Voroshilov district of the city.

According to eyewitnesses, the shells exploded near the drama theater. Another shell hit the roof of a new building on Pushkin Boulevard.

https://www.donetsk.kp.ru/online/news/4903749/

"As of 23:30, the total number of civilian casualties from attacks by armed formations of Ukraine for September 2, 2022 is 21 people, including 1 child," the observers said. 

It is specified that six civilians, including a child, were killed, another 15 were injured. "Unfortunately, the injured child born in 2008 died on the way to the hospital," the mayor's office informed. It is noted that the teenager was injured in the shelling of the supermarket "Obzhora" in the Kalinin district of Donetsk.

It is also reported that as a result of the shelling of the center of the capital of the Republic, the glazing of the building of the Donetsk State Academic Music and Drama Theater named after M.M. Brovun, as well as the building of the Apparatus of the DPR People's Council, was damaged.

- In the underground passage, trade pavilions, the front door, the guard's room, the shield room were damaged. The roof of an apartment building was damaged due to a direct hit, - the head of the capital administration Alexei Kulemzin said in his telegram channel.

September 2: Photos Not Lying

Parking lot of Donetsk National Academic Ukrainian Music and Drama Theater next to Pushkin monument (as located for 9/17, see below). Also in the central Voroshylovs'kyi district

Pretty clearly from the northwest. See site mapping below to save pic space. Facing north, just west of the theater's west face, an impact near the corner spread - the blast wave bent the sign forward, as debris was sent ahead and to the left and right. 

September 9: Clashing Claims

IN DONETSK, A BUS STOP NEAR THE PARK WAS SHELLED: THERE ARE DEAD AND WOUNDED

On the afternoon of September 9, the center of occupied Donetsk came under fire. The second wave occurred in the area of the intersection of Universitetskaya Street and Prospekt Mira. Nearby is the Park of Forged Figures. According to preliminary data, as a result of the shelling, 2 people were killed, 5 were injured. Data on victims and wounded are being clarified.

Earlier it was reported that the Park of Forged Figures in the city center came under fire, as a result of which a woman was injured.

The occupied Donetsk was shelled for the second time in a day. There are dead - September 09, 2022 :: News of Donbass (novosti.dn.ua)

the rest forthcoming ... to do: locate more reports, place the scene, assess the damage.

park and streets are just as given and the scene here is at 48.0168445,37.7988095 - northern Voroshylovs'kyi district. Google and Yandex street views are dated, showing different structures on the island, but the same apartment building across the way, and other surroundings that match video of the scene.

Crater: on the island's east side, with a loose splash of heavy marks just this side of powdered concrete and debris to the west and south. 

Unusually, it looks like this shot was fired from the east to northeast - behind DPR lines from the direction Maakiivka, by the line I drew here. It's just approximate, but still ... whatever happened here, it appears to me it's hard to blame Ukrainian forces for it. It isn't impossible to fire from behind enemy lines, just rather tricky and quite rare.

video: https://twitter.com/ara_n_ura/status/1568267686546735107 - dead victim on the ground just ahead of impact - another shell explodes behind the camera, just to the east - smoke rises from near the park's edge. 

September 17: Clashing Claims

https://www.mk-donbass.ru/incident/2022/09/17/v-dnr-pokazali-posledstviya-obstrela-centra-donecka-foto.html

Today, the AFU inflicted a massive artillery strike on the center of Donetsk. Pushkin Boulevard, the central Lenin Square and the adjacent section of Artema Street came under enemy fire. ... The shelling damaged the roof of the Voroshilov administration, the pedestal of the monument to Pushkin, glazed musical dramas and a number of other buildings.

...According to the JCCC of the VFU, they fired from guns of 155 mm caliber. Four people ["civilians"] were killed, three more were injured of varying severity. Two of the dead were burned in a GAZelle that was moving along Artema Street during the shelling. Another woman died near the drama theater.

https://focus.ua/voennye-novosti/529742-obstrel-donecka-rossmi-pishut-o-priletah-po-zdaniyu-mchs-i-stancii-skoroy-pomoshchi

Powerful explosions were heard in the Voroshilov district. Propagandists have already determined that 155 mm ammunition was fired at the city. ... During the shelling of the temporarily occupied Donetsk, the buildings of the "Ministry of Emergency Situations", ambulance stations and official vehicles were damaged. This was reported by the Russian agency "RIA Novosti".

https://www.ostro.org/general/society/news/647293/

"As a result of the provocation of the "DPR" militants in the occupied Donetsk, four people were killed. ... As always, the puppet authorities of the "DPR" stated that the shelling of Donetsk was carried out by units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine."

"In the Voroshilov district, fragments from the shells of the Caesar howitzer of French production were found - approx. DAN). It is already known about four dead," they said.

However, photos published in the separatist media of the places of arrival of ammunition refute the version of the shelling of Donetsk by large-caliber howitzers of NATO production. The pictures show minor destruction of sidewalks, the pedestal of the monument to Pushkin and broken window panes. By their nature, the places of arrival correspond to the shelling from mortars, the insufficient range of destruction of which excludes the use of this type of weapon by the defenders of Ukraine.

September 17, Cameras Not Lying: I found the spot from a few images before I checked what was said - Artema Street, Lenin square, central Voroshylovs'kyi district. 2 impacts. One with the heavily damaged and burning ("GAZelle") truck is widely seen from several angles. 

Location: in the street alongside Lenin Square - 48.0014395,37.804561. To the south: DPR People's Council building, damaged 9/2. 

Splash Pattern: A mess of chipped pavement with an ill-defined but generally coherent forward edge line angling less than 45 degrees relative to the white line ... frags would angle forward, up, and into this truck, in its original position a couple meters back. Other photos show gravelly debris across the street for a wide span and into the square, somehowhat behind/south of the truck.

North impact - seems almost due west across from the square's north and the green-marked building, and a bit north of all 5 flags.   splash pattern: not fully clear, but this soldier sits near the center and we can see the forward right edge of the chipped asphalt.

Music and drama theater, monument to (Russian poet) A.S. Pushkin. Impact to curb 4 or 5m NW from the bust of Pushkin gracing the square. Curb was blown away there, with fragments out the side craping various lines across the pavement to the right, as soil and a shrub absorbed the forward force of the blast, covering the sidewalk in a pattern that's been swept away by this view,

The line of marks on the brick runs - on a line similar to that of shadows here - back to the base of the actual bust of Pushkin, where the circular base is chipped, along with the square base above that, and the bottom of the pillar - in a line angling up to the southeast. Included with all 3 spots mapped with patterns and apparent shell trajectories traced on. 9/2 attack also noted. The memorial one is especially approximate here - I tried using ctrl to make a default 45-degree line, but it's not quite that. 

More exactly on the monument: at this scene, measuring from missing curb nearly to the NE corner of the bust's square base gives a line exactly to 211degrees SW. The flight path will be roughly perpendicular to this, so from around 300 degrees NW. My visual estimate for the road impacts as above seemed good, and was extremely similar to this. I'm calling all 3 fired from about 300 degrees NW. 

Note: "minor destruction of sidewalks, the pedestal of the monument to Pushkin and broken window panes" were mentioned as the only damage from these shells - but this was all from the one shell with little nearby to mark its presence except solid ground and the bottom of the pedestal. Broken windows distance: spanning ~42-50m away from the impact point. Is that really too weak for 155mm shell?

September 18 (a 7th incident, added 10/17) Video: Direct hit to the apartment on the street University, 53a. https://t.me/itsdonetsk/30974 - https://vk.com/wall-75188516_1005220 - no massive damage, but an impact near the corner, windows out all over this side of the building. 

Somewhere there was a suggestion this was done by Ukrainian forces to the northwest. V. Zolkin on Telegram had to expose that lie because "stupid countrymen have been pissing me off for the ninth year!" He cites the video, gives the spot, and says this is the east face (facing to Artema street to the east) and so the building was hit from NE, Kalinins'kyi district or Makiivka. As he points out in caps lock, there is no known AFU presence there. 

I'd say it was hit from the southeast if this were the east side. But in his anger, perhaps, he got it backwards. The spot on Google Earth is not a certain match, but it was given and seems consistent. It could be the east or west face we see - maybe west, as it's more heavily treed. Most details aren't all that clear, but one is: there is no low structure on the south end protruding a bit to the east. But there is its opposite - a low structure on the north end protruding a bit to the west.  Hit on the west side, from north (venturing no specific angle), and probably from AFU areas there, Volkin's un-abatable anger aside. 

September 19, September 22: mostly forthcoming...

https://meduza.io/feature/2022/09/20/voyna-dvesti-vosmoy-den-fotografii

"On September 19, the authorities of the self-proclaimed LPR and DPR proposed to immediately hold referendums on joining Russia. ... The mayor of Donetsk, Alexei Kulemzin, reported the death of 13 people as a result of shelling of the city by the Ukrainian military." 

В Донецке во время артобстрела погибло много людей, боевики обвиняют ВСУ (фото, видео) (focus.ua)

In the Kuibyshev district of Donetsk on the afternoon of August 19, "arrivals" from artillery shelling were recorded. The "mayor" of the city, Alexei Kulemzin, appointed by the occupiers, accused the Armed Forces of Ukraine of shelling.

Referring to the data of the joint center for control and coordination of ceasefire and stabilization of the demarcation line of the parties, Kulemzin said. that the shelling of Donetsk was conducted from the territory of the village of Netaylovo, Yasynuvata district, Donetsk region.

"At 12:15 and 12:23, a total of 9 shells of 155 mm caliber were fired towards the Kuibyshev district," Kulemzin said.

According to him, the blow fell on the square of Baku Commissars, as a result, 13 people were killed, the number of wounded is being established.

Local publications write that the shells landed, including in the store, killing civilians.

https://tsn.ua/ru/ato/doneck-popal-pod-moschnyy-obstrel-okkupanty-zayavlyayut-o-gibeli-13-chelovek-2161018.html

9/19 The head of the Odessa OVA, Sergei Bratchuk, also reported on the shelling in the Telegram channel, but did not indicate the number of dead and wounded.

"The occupiers again shelled the temporarily occupied Donetsk. The day before, according to tradition, the Russians create the so-called information alibi, and then commit a new provocation against Ukraine," he said.

September 19, Cameras Not Lying: One Ukraine supporter Ryan McBeth disagreed, claiming to have forensic proof from the visual record discounting Kiev's claims and deciding DPR forces launched this attack from the south-southwest and had the round fall short - presumably in error.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoyNGHkjeyM

In my previous post, I showed how McBeth's analysis is incorrect and apparently uninformed. My own was partly incorrect to start, but informed enough to get on track eventually. It's a rambling post with some middle that can be skipped. A variety of clues (splash pattern on the asphalt to the northwest, fragment marks on the walls angling up to the south, people dead with legs shredded off just north of the impact, more intact bodies to the sides and south)  add up to say the shell responsible came from some combination of the north and the west that remains to be settled. (update 10/16: pretty well settled, as it happens, pretty much as shown below from an earlier try - but see updated post for details).

Latest trajectory estimate dropped onto a map of alleged attack origin Netaylovo, an Yandex Maps finds it 20 km NW - points right to it! Should be set a few pixels lower, point more to the town's middle. A reasonable range will include almost exactly what they shaded red here.

In that post and related tweets, I mentioned multiple attacks that day - maybe just the Baku Commissars Square area - the bust stop by the JAM shop and an open-air market area probably to the northwest of it (or off to the south...) - plus the 2 unplaced homes - the one with a burning truck was actually 2 days earlier, now covered above. 13-16 reported dead total, maybe all in the one area. - review briefly - more detail later - 

September 22, Clashing Claims:

https://dan-news.info/foto/foto-obstrel-krytogo-rynka-v-centre-donecka-ukrainskimi-boevikami/

Armed formations of Ukraine today from artillery guns opened fire on the center of Donetsk. A powerful blow was dealt to the Central (Covered) Market and the nearby territory.

It was reported that the militants of Kiev fired from the occupied Orlovka shells of 155 mm caliber. hits were near the building of the Covered Market, next to the flower pavilions and in the bus - the city minibus No. 38. According to the latest data, as a result of the shelling, six people were killed, including a teenager, six more were injured. Rescuers and medics quickly arrived at the scene.

Representatives of the JCCC and the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation also arrived to witness the fact of a war crime. Fragments of shells will be sent for examination.

September 22, Cameras Not Lying: location: 48.0108833,37.808115 - driving south on Chelyuskintsiv St. in Voroshylovs'kyi district - hit from the west + anything?

A few marks visible on the front above the blown-out windshield, at least one on the back and lower - all seemingly exit points of frags passing through the bus.  quite a few punch-ins visible with a crumpling blast wave and fireball along the side - pattern not fully clear - several in the middle of the bus punched out the other side, around the middle of the bus. One panel on the west side was peeled outward in a separate development. All else says force in from the west, out in all other directions - as for height, 3 highest marks visible on the west side are all in the front 2/3 of the bus, and several punch-outs are seen above the windshield - as forward fragments radiate the highest, this suggests maybe it was angled towards the front = from north of west or northwest. Orlovka was named. It's 21km to the NNW. This sketch uses the compass angle from that town to explain the damage seen. Similar angles would work just as well, but this does fit the picture pretty well.

dead man down ahead of oil slick (or did the driver tumble out there?). amid a field of debris - glass, window framing and panels - extending south and east from an impact point off-frame to the left. 

A gold-colored car at far left there and a black car just to its north suffered some low frag hits (likely as parked, but maybe when driving) - pieces of shell casing found here - some pavement marks visible, but not enough to see a pattern. Impact is about here, some meters north of where the bus wound up.

Another impact in the central market area - one crater seen just NW of Central Market's dome - fatalities and injuries seen a bit north of there. To hit so close to this wall, it had to come from the north and/or west, though the direction isn't very clear - the earth absorbed most of the force. Just some windows broken, light damage, dirt spray, and debris spread into the building and to the south = from the northwest, and maybe a bit more from the north. Just like the angle from which the bus was hit.

video: shell hits where? https://twitter.com/KDima777/status/1572932282658476032

another https://twitter.com/TheHumanFund5/status/1572913598376169473

All mapped with directions and lines of control: forthcoming. For now all mapped, including the 9/18 apartment building impact just added.

Review of what these "Russian provocations" and "short rounds" did. forthcoming...

Failed crater analyst and (accidental?) apologist for UAF terrorism Ryan McBeth: "I think we can effectively rule out Ukraine randomly shelling cities" (here) But was it really random, or done by a template with some terrible logic? In the cases just examined, shells hit: An occupied public transit bus - a crowded bus stop - another bus stop (but maybe on accident) - a couple of public markets - centers of government and administration and emergency services - sites of Russian-Soviet culture and history - and all of it in a place inhabited mainly by ethnic Russians who consciously reject the new Ukraine. 

 

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/8471

Donetsk Mayor Alexei Kulemzin on the 19th, after shelling that would claim 13 or even 16+ lives:

"Do not go outside unless absolutely necessary! Take care of yourself and your loved ones!" The affected route was suspended for safety. 

ВСУ чаще всего бьет по социальным объектам, рассказал мэр Донецка - РИА Новости, 03.10.2022 (ria.ru)

Mayor of Donetsk Alexey Kulemzin said that the Ukrainian side most often strikes at social facilities. "There is a lot of destruction, I repeat, the housing stock, infrastructure facilities, schools, kindergartens, hospitals, temples, social facilities are being destroyed purposefully," he said on the air of Russia 24.

And so life is made to be, in what they call "temporarily occupied Donetsk" until they accept their "liberation" by NATO's favored forces. And so it has been, with varying intensity, for over 8 years now.

To link: Monitor on Massacre Marketing: Who is Really Flattening Mariupol? (libyancivilwar.blogspot.com) - recalling the Jan. 2015 attack on markets and all of Vostochniy district, Mariupol - lines of fire pointed mainly to DPR areas, but methods and motive are 150% clear in reminding us enemy lines CAN be breached, for brief moments anyway, when there's a good reason like this. Locals terrorized, told it was the DPR they would mostly welcome - est. 70% rejected this, blamed UAF - from the DNR end, friendly, allied & blood relatedma locals held hostage were shelled, maimed, killed when they drew too near to liberating them. They pulled back under pressure after they were blamed for the massacre of dozens, then Misnk talks, etc. and they didn't get that close to taking Mariupol until this year, with Russia's much-maligned help. 

Compared to Donetsk shelling discussed here ... lines of fire aren't tricky at all - they say just what motive does. ...