Failing StopFake's Propaganda Re:ZNPP

October 12-13, 2022 

Fake: Ukraine Shells Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant - August 25, 2022 -  https://www.stopfake.org/en/fake-ukraine-shells-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant/

Summary: "The Ukrainian Armed Forces did not shell the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the city of Enerhodar. An analysis of missile trajectories and the nature of the damage confirms that strikes were carried out from the territories controlled by Russian occupation troops. The Russian propaganda video shows footage of another facility, the Zaporizhzhia thermal power station, which is about 7 kilometres away from the nuclear facility and which stopped operating back in May due to a shortage of coal."

Grade: F

First, two debatable errors in the cited report from "RT propagandist Alexei Repin." 

* 1 This said (translated): "the shell of the Armed Forces of Ukraine landed in one of the pumping stations at the end of July." 

** Possible error or misleading description - might refer to July 18/19/20: acknowledge UA drone attack on military tent camp, BM21 Grad MLRS. The 20th is the most common given date for this, but CNN heard it was the 19th and at least one Russian source says it was the 18th. To be reconciled. Both hits we know of were near the spray ponds that employ pumps - or maybe "pumping station" was another, less-interesting, part of that attack, or maybe it was hit in another attack (but there were no others in late July I know of), or it's just a made-up Russian lie - not certain.  

* 2 failing to note that at least some footage was from the nearby Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant, quite some ways from the nuclear plant.

** It was. See below - "Some Hits"

Next, three terrible errors on StopFake's end:

* Error 1 (compound): Aug. 24 RT report on "numerous evidence of shelling ... after the [UA attack] at the end of July" is misread as evidence from a single attack "at the beginning of July" (but Repin is also cited with "end of July"). From that, they link all images in the video report as alleging one July attack, but finding instead the singular event happened on August 5: The damaged building was site of July attack, AND the rocket tail as "the remains of the shell that destroyed the pumping station" then, and they decided that yet another building, "according to Repin, was shelled at the end of July" 

** In fact, none if it goes together, and the report never said it did. That's 3 or 4 different ("numerous") incidents at different locations: 

*** The LATE July attack probably means the one around the 20th, which was done by Ukrainian-fielded, Polish-made Warmate drones, This is not disputed. No aftermath of this is shown in Repin's report.

*** It was afternoon of August 6 when the rocket landed next to spent fuel storage (location: 47.5145081,34.5923875 - south of storage site's front gate - northern grounds) - just the one Uragan  220mm rocket was reportedly used "in cassette" - with cluster munitions, at least 10 of which have been seen after NW of where the spent tube impacted, displacing soil to the southeast. Estimated trajectory so far: ~140-142 degrees SE, from ~320-322 NW. https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/09/ukraines-systematic-shelling-of-znpp.html StopFake adds another small error by saying this was on August 5, not the 6th as reported, or the 7th as some decided based on reports then (and so they also decided the building damage happened then, on the 5th). 

*** It was August 11 when the shown building was damaged - location: 47.50791,34.5870228 - southern grounds - called "hydroshop" (a decent guess for "pumping station") - other spots were reportedly hit as well, in a UAF attack using 4 152mm shells and a "Hellfire" rocket - this impact is to the north wall, hit from the north - exact angle unclear - see images below -  https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/10/maxar-and-cnn-turn-blind-eye-to-august.html

*** another building was damaged but not clear when or even where - see below.

* Error 2: getting building sides mixed up for the Aug. 11 incident, to suggest that shelling was made up; "after the “shelling” the canopy over the door and the air conditioner on the wall show no signs of damage."    

** That's on the building's WEST side. The north side is torn wide open. It's evident we're looking out a different wall with far more "windows" in another view. That's the one that was damaged. Also note that 2 weeks later, the scene has been partly cleaned up. 

* Error 3: For the August 6 incident, accepting the "expert" trajectory assessment from Energoatom: "Experts, after analyzing where the rocket launcher projectiles were fired from and taking into account the angle of inclination of the rocket stuck in the ground, reached a unanimous conclusion: the shelling was carried out by the Russian military - approximately from the industrial zone located between the nuclear plant and the city of Energodar." Their third image shows it hitting a slightly wrong spot from the east or southeast. 

That's roughly the opposite of correct. It assumes the rocket plowed in with no bending (as they usually do), but displaced soil almost backwards on its trajectory, instead of the usual forward. That just doesn't happen, while bending sometimes does. Therefore, a better reading is the opposite one:  

Energoatom's experts also ignored the spread of cluster bomblets all to the north and northwest. That's what injured the "employee" - he was a security guard, per Russian reports, and probably at the booth guarding the spent fuel site. That was targeted like both sides say, and it was targeted with cluster munitions, which Energoatom don't even mention. The Russians mentioned it, and even showed us the impacts, or let the present media show us. (#9 here didn't detonate = #11 is seen in later footage, connection to this shelling unclear - other impact likely but unseen, especially among the NW trees)

Here is the Energoatom experts' lazy reading compared to: 

- my trench-based visual estimate, 

- Russian mapped claim (RU1 by literal angle from impact, RU2 from cited launch spot to impact - their map just points to a spot near the plant but not even in it), 

- by cluster bomblet spread (a best case from an incomplete area), and finally, 

- a new idea - pre-deflection actual path, to help fit with cluster spread, which wind can only have a small part in. Noting the bend forward is also a bit to the left ... maybe the trench reflects a deflection to the left, or just shows the bend forward as much as the trajectory. Maybe the best line over the dirt is less from the rocket and more from a bit to its left, and would point back more to the north, questioning the Russian claim as to the firing area. To consider further.

Some hits for StopFake:

* Same scene identified between 2 images, even noting the appearance of a spiderweb in between!

** Yes, that's the same scene. Great investment of time. They just got the date, thr relevance to other incidents, the firing direction, and the perpetrator wrong. An example of what they missed: area 2 with no displaced soil - that's NOT the forward direction like Kiev's "experts" decided "unanimously." Instead, it's in the box at left they cropped off. The matching displaced soil was not worth noting, after all.

* Another building with broken glass may be at the Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant instead. 

** One scene from the video is from the TPP gate rather than at the NPP, as can be seen at the Google Maps link they give (street view and photos, with some things added and some bits now missing). Maybe this building is hiding in there, but it's not placed anywhere. The building and view are so generic, it might be at the ZNPP like the other footage, even though I can't clearly place it. I ruled out a few possible matches, but one building in the north middle could still be it (north side of its south wing). 

StopFake decided this is another "building, which according to Repin, was shelled at the end of July," This leaves open that all the footage - none of which StopFake was able to place - was actually at the thermal plant. In fact, they say up top "the Russian propaganda video shows footage of another facility, the Zaporizhzhia thermal power station." But to accept the Energoatom analysis, they must agree at least the "August 5" incident also shown was at the ZNPP, so at least some footage must have been relevant evidence, and as such, it deserved more respect than StopFake was willing to give it.