The Case for a Secret Ukrainian Presence in Bucha

Death in Bucha's Gray Zone, Part 9: The Case for a Secret Ukrainian Presence in Bucha

July 27-29, 2022

(a bit rough, maybe incomplete)

I've been trying for a while to establish when and where Ukrainian forces might have operated in Bucha prior to the Russian withdrawal around March 30. Maps by the Institute for the Study of War employ stringent criteria that show Bucha and everything around it as a vague, mostly  unchanging area of Russian "advance" - not Russian "control" - for the entire time, perhaps reflecting the mixed reality in which Kiev's forces could never really be excluded. (ex: 3/24 - 3/18 - crop from 3/18 below, Bucha traced on) 

For something more detailed, I originally cited maps by Dr. Abdullah Manaz, a freelance journalist and author based in Ankara (website: Manaz.net). but I was always unsure what his maps were based on. By March 19, these show the eastern half on Bucha as removed from Russian control, presumably after some days of progress to that end. This is shown below at left. The red line is "today" (afternoon on 3/19), while the purple line shows what Russian forces controlled "yesterday." Bucha is fairly visible at upper left, with a red line down the middle." Dr. Abdullah Manaz on Twitter -The #UkrainianArmy counterattacked in the areas of #Bucha and #Irpin, north-west of #Kiev, and the #RussianArmy was forced to retreat." Were they? To this degree? How does one learn that? To the right is an example of my early maps showing how this scales out (adding the same red line), along with a further advance Manaz showed for March 24, putting almost 2/3 of Bucha under Ukrainian control.

That always made sense to me, but it's embarrassing how much weight I put on those maps with so little idea what they were based on. Since then, I've been looking for better or trying to make my own, based on reliable information. There hasn't been much to support this reading. 

A map I found showing similar to what Dr. Manaz had mapped was drawn up by Julian Roepcke (a German "OSINT" activist, pro-Ukraine and anti-Russia) as "the military situation in Irpin, Bucha and Hostomel, according to the Ukrainian army" - the red line showed the line of contact. He only did this incidentally, as he cast doubt on a Ukrainian claim to have Russian forces "surrounded." (on a bigger scale, on 3 sides, yes - but not fully). I scaled that out ... red line is the claim as Roepcke mapped it - pink = a revised front he proposed based on a geolocated video of recent fighting, knowing Kiev held the crossing, and thinking they might be well into Bucha (makes sense to me too) - pale pink = more like what he should have done for the red line. 

By citing a possible source in a later tweet Roepcke suggests he was trying to replicate a map presented by NBC's Richard Engel on Twitter "Ukraine making big gains around kyiv.  I got a brief (with an unclassified map) from two top municipal officials." A digital map is projected on a huge screen he gestures at. I scaled this out as I could - also on Twitter - so cities and roads and the river matched with a flat map. It took some skewing, a lot of scaling and blurring, so it's not exact, but everything visible roughly lines up across this area. Then I traced Bucha's outskirts approximately, based on the E373. It's all inside the purple. 

By this, the map seems to show Bucha 100% Russian controlled on the 23rd. While fighting remained hot in Irpin, officially nothing much happened with Bucha until the Russians left a week later. That's an important plank for accusations the Russians must be responsible for all killings that happened in the city - or at least those that weren't caused by Ukrainian shelling - and there's a good reason they downplay their shelling. 

On the Other Side, it's the Russians

In fact ... by this big map Engel saw, even the majority of Irpin was Russian-held, so the Vokzalna-Soborna crossing was out of Ukrainian hands (angled red box in the middle). Manaz showed Ukraine taking all of northern Irpin on the 19th, but we're skipping that. Still, I've always taken that crossing as Ukrainian-held the whole time. If it were lost, that's not "big gains." It's a big loss. 

Generally, I've heard Russia never took more than about 1/4 of Irpin, but it fluctuated, and I haven't really studied it. In fact, lacking a clearer picture there, for now I'm just copying Roepcke's Irpin line, arbitrarily adjusted,  

A video aired March 24 by France 24 - likely filmed on an earlier but recent day - says that at the time, the Russians controlled "half" of Irpin. (a full 50%, or the smaller of two parts?). The video starts from the Romanivka crossing in southern Irpin, where the reporter is told "if you want to enter Irpin, pass by the right. It's the side we control. On the other side, it's the Russians." But right and left of what dividing line?

The video shows a supposedly charming Ukrainian fighter driving north through Irpin, at least starting on Soborna street (5:00 bridge - 5:10 passing Synernia), and then places I find harder to pin (worth expanding on with more geolocation work). 5:32 passing a tank (abandoned?). Some violence and bodies along the way suggesting this is or has been a front line. Russian troops are seen patrolling in "the park" (5:42), whereupon the driver turns to the right. 

But finally in the early afternoon they're at the edge of "no-man's land" closest to Bucha - on Soborna street just south of the ravaged Giraffe Mall - at the front line with its flags and cement mixer, bulldozer marked "welcome to hell," some dead Russians rotting just off to the left, a smashed car ahead and at one point, maybe still, a badly dead civilian man was left for people to walk past.  Beyond: the hedgehog-studded bridge to Bucha straight ahead. Quite a few civilians cross that bridge and through this zone as they film. You get the sense the last few days in Bucha were extra stressful, and evacuations may have been halted, causing a backlog and an influx. Somewhere probably in Irpin, bursts of automatic gunfire are heard in the distance. 

Smoke rises over Bucha in that view - ahead to the north-northwest, somewhere north of the new high rises (blue arc at right - not there in this dated satellite view). Compared to area fires that were seen by Fire Map - NASA | LANCE | FIRMS (noting this doesn't catch all fires), the plume's base lines up well with one of two blazes just north of Bucha, in southern Hostomel on the 22nd, and the other one's smoke likely blends in with the plume we see. Distance: about 4.4 km. NASA FIRMS doesn't log any notable fires on this line of sight on the 20th, one near it on the 21st, but that's too close to match. There is a big one probably too far east on the 23rd (forgot to add it, but about top right corner in this image, 1.8 km from the one circled). No fires at all are logged in Bucha or its north on the 24th or any day thereafter. 

So I suspect this footage was filmed on the 22nd, and the well-known front line was still Ukrainian-held at that time. Maybe the Russians wrenched away control the next day and officials included that in their own "big gains" map of the 23rd or, otherwise, maybe this map isn't correct; maybe Ukraine held more of Irpin than shown. 

Secret Presence?

And maybe they were operating in parts of Bucha, if not in proper military control of any of it. Officially, it seems, the defense plan - where Bucha was a "gray zone" managed remotely with artillery - held through the entire occupation. Implicitly, there was no organized military resistance in Bucha, at least after some early attempts up to March 3 or 4. However ...

Background Type: There was a policy dubbed "comprehensive" or "total Defense," adopted in 2021, that aimed largely to militarize all of Ukrainian society in the case of an invasion, allowing military forces to be based in schools and homes and launch attacks from there, effectively making people human shields ... all kinds of changes to civil law - and the creation of a robust Territorial Defense Force, among many other things. 

Ukraine’s “Total Defense”: A Critique - George Woloshyn and Eugene Stakhiv Jan 19, 2022

"TD forces stay close to their homes and families defending familiar (to them) terrain. In fact, they are intended to be a regional force, subject to regional authorities and with a somewhat decentralized structure. When the enemy attacks the defenders will have access to prepositioned, clandestine caches of supplies and armaments needed for civilian resistance and resilience (such as counteracting enemy propaganda) and partisan-type armed operations against enemy forces. "

If this were in effect in Bucha prior to full Russian occupation - which is probable - there might be resistance fighters living there already, who could find an excuse to stay behind and help organize resistance activities. Many who stay behind would serve as informants, reporting Russian movements, etc. Here I mean people who shoot. They can call in strike locations, and then swoop in to finish off the survivors and secure a former Russian base, for example. 

Most would try to leave by the 4th or so, to work in full-formation in government-held areas. But between some who stay behind and some who sneak back in, with weapons caches stashed inside the city, they could form a serious threat. The degree can't be known, but these will be there - how many and how well equipped, how they were used, all remain unknown (to me anyway).

The Russians seemed very concerned about "Territorial Defense," looking for them or, generally, people who served in the "Anti-Terror Operation" in Donbas, who they think can be known by "Nazi" tattoos, and who seem to the be the backbone of TDF (as related). It seems the Russians executed a number of men on suspicion of membership. There many cases of this reported, mainly denying any militancy, but increasingly allowing that it was so in certain cases. There are other cases reported where I'm not convinced the Russians were involved at all. I'm still sorting the evidence for several of these (see around).

It strikes me that others who stay behind might be Russia sympathizers who wanted to connect with the occupiers, maybe assist them, and maybe to escape with them in the end. Ones aiming to resist will also stay and so both type of neighbors would be present to some degree, with only so much to keep them from killing each other. 

As for legal accountability, an expanded defense policy in July, 2022 "offers legal protections for any civilian in Ukraine who takes up arms against an occupying force, while offering the government options for disavowing or blocking counter-productive resistance." (Army Times) Would kidnapping or murdering a neighbor the volunteer ethnically hates count as "counter-productive"? Like if they posted a video of themselves doing it and it made global news? Otherwise, they could always just blame the Russians for it too. But that kind of "disavowal" option wouldn't be written into law. 

Chronology of the occupation of Kyiv region (babel.ua) - Vladimir Shcherbinin was in Bucha, heading "the public organization Buchanska Varta, which had existed since the Revolution of Dignity of 2014." Bucha massacre victim Zhanna Kameneva was a member of Buchanska Varta (see here). Shcherbinin would be her boss in that. "Varta" means "guard." He apparently coordinated with TDF in its resistance operations, mainly described as early; he himself fought the Russians near the Novus in north-central Bucha on Feb. 27, getting badly injured and hospitalized for it. 

For the span to March 5, Shcherbinin says: 

"Partisan work was in full swing, — says Shcherbinin. — I was in the hospital, but I was constantly updated about whatʼs going on. One sniper went and shot about ten of Russians. Then two more guys. One of our fighters went and burned the armored personnel carrier at night. He died, itʼs a pity, he was a good guy. But some traitors showed [Russians] who was where. They were riding with racists on the armored personnel carrier and showing who participated in the ATO [Anti-terrorist operation] and who was in the Varta. They [Russians] didnʼt even ask any questions. If they [these traitors] pointed a finger, Russians opened a fire from the machine gun."

(bolded because new) For the span after March 5, he mentions no such thing. But there were probably partisans like that, and others on Shcherbinin's side, but with no army present to assist them directly. And so we can never rule out that they might pick some finger-pointers or other enemies to drag from home and execute, with no army required. 

But anything involving a column of armored vehicles and Russian unforms probably is Russian; false-flag operations on that scale are a logical possibility, and one I favored initially, but the more I learn the more it doesn't seem likely. In general. 

Enhanced Resistance: More interesting is what I mainly focus on here with the map - how additional forces could enter to link up with any locals, bring in fighters from elsewhere, resupply and better weapons, and maybe even heavy armor, drawing on the massive resources handed to Kiev after the Russian invasion. With the areas north and west of Bucha occupied to some depth, such boosts would probably enter from government-held areas to the east or the south.

And within the "gray zone" there might be a no-man's land - as there was in Irpin, and maybe even more so - where you can't even pick up bodies, for example. In Bucha, this would be the exposed southern strip along Yablunska street, "mortar alley" as I've called it, closest to Ukraine's mortars and drones. Russians were there, in parts anyway, in tanks - would maybe clean up corpses like in more civilized parts of town, if they could, but they didn't so ... they couldn't? In fact, they didn't encourage anyone to go out, live in, pass through this area - A Russian embassy Facebook post explained "the southern outskirts of the city, including residential areas, were shelled round the clock by Ukrainian troops with large-calibre artillery, tanks and multiple launch rocket systems." Generally or totally, that fire came from Irpin to the south. But still, the Russians may be quite limited in their management here, and they could easily be challenged in it. They might be chased from or might give up on stretches of it. 

And consider for Ukraine to run an area, they might need only a local withdrawal of Russian forces, forced or voluntary. But then, Russian bases west of the tracks not reported to vacate more than perhaps a day early. All I've seen is the Russians left around March 30, suggesting that applied in each area discussed. On Ivana-Franka, for example, in the far southeast of the city, the Russians were there until, suddenly, "on the morning of April 1, they were gone" (Der Spiegel)

 Chronology of the occupation of Kyiv region (babel.ua) supports the official line, perhaps:

March 23—27. The Armed Forces encircled Irpin, Gostomel, and Bucha, cutting off the occupiers from their logistical routes. Fighting in the region intensified. — At some point, somewhere in late March, we had to hide in the basement again, — says Iryna Levchenko. — Our guys began to give them [the Russians] a proper trearment. [sic]"

March 28 — 31. The mayor of Irpin said that the city was liberated from the occupiers. Russian troops began to withdraw from the occupied territories. — A combat order to move forward has come, — says Ihor Kim. — Reconnaissance was conducted on enemy positions in Bucha, and I was informed that yesterday [March 30], they were still there, and today they have already withdrawn. Even part of the armament was left. I didnʼt understand what was happening. There were still quite active battles. I had one guy killed before they left. It turned out that they [the Russians] were not provided with supplies and suffered very heavy losses.

If the Russians were out of Irpin before the last day, where were these ongoing battles? Maybe in Bucha? Only undertaken then, at the very end? Since the 28th? The 25th? The 22nd? The 19th? 

The Russians don't mention false-flag gangs plaguing the southern outskirts, but it seems entirely possible to me the Ukrainians had small crews of likely extreme people operating in some areas - sometimes moving in cars, sometimes on foot, harassing Russian supply lines or engaging in sabotage, attacking the Russians directly, and maybe attacking them with false flag allegations as they eliminate some of their own undesirable citizens. 

So far, there's no especially amazing case for that, just some evidence both for and against. But it's the kind of possibility I have to look into here. 

If there was any presence, it would be secret. They probably wouldn't advertise it with shaded areas on a public map. They might be seen or reported anyway, and there is nothing I've seen that clearly suggest as much. But then they might just move at night or in disguise, citizens were discouraged from reporting Ukrainian movements, and most had their phones confiscated by the Russians anyway. 

I'm not saying anything like this happened, but it might have. And if it did, it might follow patterns like this.

Map

From what I've learned in months of research, a city map with notable events, points of possible clashes and changing hands, mapped and dated, atop some speculated areas of possible Ukrainian control or of mostly-unchecked operation.

Wheeled forces from Irpin could cross the rivers at any of 3 points: Left to right: Vokzalna/Soborna (Ukrainian-barricaded: barricades could be moved, and operations by foot are possible), via the Hostomel's'ke Hwy from northern Irpin (a crossing and general area I have seen ZERO videos or photographs of or reports about. This quietness alone might suggest something relevant was happening there), or by the exposed and likely guarded, damaged but somewhat passable bridge at the E373 from Kiev/Horenka (one lane was passable for civilian vehicles, anyway, and could possibly allow tanks/AFVs). All entrances would be variously guarded, with the eastern ones probably harder to guard; penetration into the east side is more likely. The rail crossing at Vokzalna would be needed to connect east and west areas of operation, and this should be well guarded - the Russians needed it for the same reason. 

Special sources: 

Building damage: Map detail | UNITAR building damage assessment up to March 31:  https://www.unitar.org/maps/map/3522 

Fire Map - NASA | LANCE | FIRMS - (Most fires don't seem to appear, especially on cloudy days, and sometimes the ones that do don't correlate with any notable damage. Visible fires could be from an attack on Russian forces in general, from a distance in the usual gray zone fashion - or the same and maybe from closer, with an aim to chase the Russians out and take over, or after some degree of takeover, an attack on Kiev's forces to halt their advance or stop or punish attacks aimed north or west.)

Drone footage: all AFAIK from Azov Battalion - relevant views for 3/12-13 via CNN - 3/23-30 downloadable videos via Meduza.

Notes for areas of interest

Listed as: numbered entries) spots lettered on the map)

1) A) ~3/13 at the new roundabout: shelling from north (roundabout crater + frag marks on facade to the south), possible deaths from that (body 1 - maybe present 3/13?) - 2 other deaths nearby (bodies 6 & 7) before midday 3/12, another not yet - maybe the 13th, definitely by 3/18, next to a crater, from a shell fired from the north (by fence damage). Russians were to the north. Was there someone new in the area worth firing on? An armored vehicle ("tank") has driven down here ... to kill people? Or maybe to investigate mysterious events involving dangerous people? Early drone views enhanced and sharpened, March 12 also rotated 180 degrees. 

2) B) 3/16 Karina Yershova, missing since 3/10, is brought here badly injured by apparently Russian soldiers and, per a witness, is executed alongside a local couple for totally mysterious reasons. https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/05/who-killed-karina-yershova.html

3) C) 3/17 Likely Territorial Defense fighter Vasyl Nedashkivskiy rep. executed at local command post at 33B Tsentralna, established there on March 5 (Reuters with some addresses that took some further decoding - at right). Another executed man was found in the same spot, less clear story and not dated, maybe killed earlier.

4) D) 3/17-18 fires noted by NASA system across the Hostomelske bridge - one on the 17th is the only one in Bucha - 3 nearby follow the next day.

5) A) 3/18: 4 men rep. executed - one may have been killed already by shelling - video exists to suggest 1+ execution mid-morning - the video claimed a date of March 25, but detailed accusations claim the 18th, and all bodies seem present in satellite views of 3/18 and 3/19 (see 1 above where I already numbered them for some reason) - one body w/hands bound, white armbands suggested -  dedicated post long overdue - this mass execution was blamed on Belarusian civilian (as far as we know) Sergei Kolosei in what seems to be a major, unacknowledged blunder. https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/05/sergei-kolosei-bucha-massacres-first.html It wasn't him. Who was it? Were they even with the Russian forces at all? Who was really killed there and why? I looked into that some a ways back, and will come back to it. Until then and even after, there will be some open questions here.

Full March 18 satellite view of the area, taken quite shortly after the video mentioned above:

6) E) Starting 3/18: "the Russian attacks on civilians intensified on March 18th." CBC - shared video: apparent clashes with gunfire - the kind that's usually from up-close battles - heard, filmed sometime around/after the 18th, implicitly, Sounds seem to be in the Millennium State area to the north, here generally labeled E. Same witness says door to door searches, with shots heard in some cases, happened in the area south of that, from 3/18 at least to 3/29 (see 25). 

7) F) by 3/19 Checkpoint has appeared since 3/13, and has witnessed a greasy battle, might have been overrun? Briefly complicated anyway? Maxar satellite images of 3/19 - street (see below, upper right),  dark smears of what looks like a former front-line at Yablunska and Vodoprovidna - in better views, like a March 25 drone video (big view below), we can see this is all around a tire barricade as for a checkpoint - fences have been smashed, perhaps to allow driving around a clogged intersection - some AFVs parked by the barricade made of tires that was attacked, likely jamming the intersection with wreckage and hence the backyards driven through until it was cleared out. 

The above also cites a 3/3 video, since found the (probably) March 5, where these signs don't appear. Since then, drone footage from 12 and 13 March has emerged, apparently showing the 2 bodies but none of the barricade/battle signs - no barricade, no grease, no smashed fences. As of 9/19 we see all of it. Something happened here. Note how the mess smears more to the west. Damaged vehicles may have been pulled (or pushed) back to the west.

Checkpoint as seen in April. Note destroyed house behind it, pieces of it in the street.

8) G) 3/19 2 fires just off the E373 west of the river - this suggests fighting over the crossing, as if someone wants to cross ... or just did, and wants to advance, or is launching attacks from here, and is being frustrated in that. Or it could be Russians getting shelled from Irpin wherever they happen to be, for no special reason.

9) H) ~3/19 new likely shelling death. El Pais: Oleg, a cook aged around 30, lived at 62 Vodoprovidna, the 9-story one - set out on March 19 to get firewood. ... "It was the last time his neighbors would see him. His body appeared 10 days later with his hands tied with plastic." ... local Yaroslav was able to reconstruct "the most-detailed account" where Oleg was pressed to cook the Russians a barbecue on the 15th, and "they may have been dissatisfied with the result," as Yaroslav speculates. That might be why "Fearfully, [Oleg] told them that he had a wife and four-year-old daughter." Still, when Oleg went out 4 days later, "Yaroslav heard him shout: “I’m a civilian, I’m a civilian, don’t shoot!” At the same time, five shots rang out as the Russians told him to stop." Handy witness.

They were telling him to stop while his hands were already tied? Did he try running from them, so they shot him in the back? Or did they tie his hands after the shooting, to make it look more like an execution? "They never saw the cook again until his body was found face down next to the building on the day the Russians left. They don’t even know if he was there the whole time. Yaroslav explains that when they rolled over the body, his guts fell out." So he was injured in the front, and quite a lot - not in the back as he ran ... "In Oleg’s apartment, on the fifth floor, his wife Natasha chooses not to speak." That might be smart. “No one understands why they killed him,” says Yaroslav. “The Russians are barbaric and inhuman. He didn’t behave aggressively and he was an intelligent person.” Admission: the allegation is pretty absurd, but he assumes most of us will buy it without reservation, because everyone knows Russians aren't human.

Also a house used by Russian troops and another across the street (55 and 64 Vodoprovidna) were shelled possibly by the 19th, definitely by 3/23.  Reuters report has alleged details, a house photo that matches with a house Vodoprovidna 55? (not numbered on Google Maps or on Yandex maps but logically it would be 55), located here with "tank tracks" out the back, from the south, etc. And it's been wrecked. At 64, a man was killed early on, the wife moved to the same 55, I believe, in the basement with the owner, until they all fled on the 10th. (Digital Journal) (photo allowing geolocation to 64 found here) Her home was likely occupied too. It was then partly flattened and burned. 

Adding: I've found reports to clarify the next house south of 55, on the lower right and off-frame above, was also occupied, with claims of 6 tortured bodies in the basement, and is perhaps the neighboring occupied house where an Instagram handle tagged on the wall allowed some sleuths to identify a specific Russian soldier. This house - Yablunska 215 - was not shelled. As it happens Ukraine preserved those clues - maybe even enhanced them, for all we know. A Milwaukee Independent article I found has photos showing Bucha resident Ivan planting trees in the vacant lot between houses, seen here marred with tread marks. lot seen here. Ivan says he "was able to escape before the Russians occupied the city on February 26. ... All the doors of Ivan’s home were broken, and his valuables were stolen or destroyed. ... "There was a trench in my garden, where the Russian occupiers hid their equipment. And there were graves. In my basement, I found the bodies of six tortured people. It was the same situation in many houses around the neighborhood,” said Ivan. “Eventually, the relevant government services came and took the corpses away for identification and burial.” I don't believe these alleged six have been seen or reported about at all. 

10) F) ~3/20: In between satellite views of the 19th and 21st. in the block of Yablunska just east of the checkpoint intersection, 2 cars have been recently stopped, one with a body sporting a white armband appearing near it. (here I wasn't sure about the third car on the right - it was there in the intersection from March 5 at the latest)

One of these cars with apparent light shelling damage on the driver's side, one with no visible damage. Both may be brand-new, had signs in the back windows, affixed with corner stickers or velcro, now removed. Neither is marked V. One has a new body appear in the street nearby, wearing a white armband. There are different ways this could be read, and I'm not sure myself. The first maybe just shot, lightly crashed into, windows smashed manually right at the locks? Who were these drivers and what were they doing? What happened to the rwst of them? And for that matter, who was it that stopped them here? I've been studying this awhile, and haven't seen these questions answered. From a video (...), some views west-to-east:

11) 1) ~3/20 man in track suit shot dead near a Russian forces post, circumstances unclear - "On or around March 20, in the late morning, Russian forces occupying an apartment building on the corner of Poltavaska and Shevchenka. Streets shot an unidentified man wearing a black track suit. A man and his 14-year-old son who lived in the building next door said they heard the shooting." (HRW) It seems possible this was a Ukrainian fighter in civilian dress, killed during an attack on the Russian position. If so, his weapon was apparently recovered, but not his body. They may have been low-scale, operating just on foot. Besides, it could be left as proof the Russians were killing civilians. Also a sizeable fire was logged in the area on 3/20, about 120-180 meters NW of that intersection. But no serious building damage was noted.

12) J) ~3/20 Russian armored vehicle hit in Ivana-Franka area: Der Spiegel English (April 8), citing 13-year-old girl "Varya": "On or around March 20, as the fighting was getting closer to Bucha and an armored vehicle was hit, the violence on Ivan Franko Street increased. The soldiers started looking for someone to hold responsible and threatened Yevgeniya’s daughter. "They came into the yard," Varya says. "'Tell us everything! We know that you know something!' They started firing over my head and over my shoulder." ... "the fighting was getting closer to Bucha" = still not in it. Implied: the AFV was hit with remote artillery. But surrounding events suggest it might have been more intimate.

13) K) 3/21 Large fire visible in Maxar satellite imagery (in the middle of the image at right), but not logged on the NASA Fire Map. The location is an area filled with truck yards and such, right across the Hostomelske bridge.  https://discover.digitalglobe.com/

14) A) and nearby, 3/21: 2 fires seen by FIRMS, but no clear sign just what might have happened (more analysis pending: 3/18 sat. views vs/ later drone might set one, anyway)

15) L) 3/22 2-6 People killed by Russian troops mid-day on 3/22, as reported, but near shelled Russian vehicles, at or near some shelled houses where Russians were based, and the killings look more like extreme shelling deaths. Post, to be updated. 

16) M) 3/22 (app loc) Oleksandr Rzhavsky abducted passing Russian post at Victoria park. See also24) M). https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/05/who-killed-oleksandr-rzhavsky-and-who.html 

17) 3/23 a fire (no letter). I drew this part of the possible area before seeing this fire - same happened with the 3/17 & 18 fires - possible coincidence, but where clashes with clandestine Ukrainian fighters make the most sense, fires break out. 

18) F) and near to the west, 3/23: V-marked tanks ( One identified as BTR-D, two as BMD-2)  seen parked just west of possible battle at the checkpoint (see 8): Alleged new line: a block east, hidden behind fences: seen 3/23 to 3/28. Once the drone sees a BMD manned by Russian troops, or it sees Ukrainian men by a vacant BMD parked there just to be seen, to make sure the Russians can be blamed for any fresh killings in this area. They do vanish from the scene before 3/29, as if part of the general Russian withdrawal, but that could be a performance.

19) N) ~3/24 6 likely shelling deaths from 16) L) burned ~3/23 or 3/24? Near alleged Russian command post implicitly still in operation. (Le Monde English, April 10)

20) O) 3/24 Tetiana Eremenko killed passing Russian post at Lisova Bucha train station with her husband and daughter around 4 PM. Most likely the soldiers shot her, but they spoke up to say it wasn't them. Well, who else? And why? The Russians allegedly detained the father in a cruel episode, as described, but then gave the family a stolen car they had, so they could recover and bury Tetiana's body. (kotsubynske.com. April 20, NYT April 11) 

21) P) After 3/24: an older man with white armband appears dead just short of the crossing to Irpin. No visible injuries. 

22) Q) Dmitryo S. 3/26 Dmitro Stefianko, walking about 10 AM with another man who lived, when Russian troops opened fire, hit his backside, dragged him back and executed him, in front of another witness they held but didn't kill.  (ITV News) Video retraces route, allows geolocation to the dot Q. That's most likely under Russian control, but possibly not, and so - possibly - false stories had to be made up.

23) F) by 3/28 and 3/29: house behind checkpoint (Yablunska 334) IS destroyed between views of 3/25 and 3/28, along with lesser damage and burning to garage half of the adjacent house (332), where AFVs were seen earlier, but had already departed. The house remains a likely base for Russians trying to hold a line here. This goes against the checkpoint being permanently overrun on or before the 19th. It also goes against fake Russian AFVs deployed in the area. But possibly, this is a base for fake Russians with seized tanks to cover for their secret pre-clearance operations in this area. Directions of fire can't be quite so definitive by now, but worth more study. 

...that little shed was hit again by 3/29. Why? Evidence destruction? One further position noted, but it seems just 3 AFVs total, one of them getting moved. On the 29th and 30th, it seems one BMD-2 does not leave, just gets covered up? Why? 

24) M) 3/27 "Pro-Russian" politician Oleksandr Rzhavsky killed by a drunk Russian at home nearby (walking distance from a Russian base at Victoria Park, and on the same street) - or killed there after the Russians left, following a 3/30 phone call with some sober-minded Russians, in which he refused evacuation? That was advised to avoid being killed by Ukrainian ultra-nationalists, who may have already killed Rzhavsky's son in 2018. 

https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/05/who-killed-oleksandr-rzhavsky-and-who.html

25) A) 3/29 rep. mock execution here or nearby: CBC News video: on the 29th, the day before they would all leave, the local Russian soldiers came to the door of [Volodomy Lyzovsky?], a heavyset motorcycle enthusiast and mechanic, apparently 3 houses north of the roundabout. He says they took him to a nearby house and beat him to force a false confession of helping Ukrainian forces. He refused, so they marched him to Yablunska street - probably at the roundabout. "They brought me to an area where the bodies of people killed earlier were lying. They made me kneel there, they put a gun to my head, and they fired it next to my ear." 

But then they let him go. Lyzovsky had a phone full of videos, some of which he shows a CBC reporter. He did suffer a fractured cheekbone under the right eye. Still, motorcycle man with the broken eye had good enough vision, perhaps, to be the one that recognized a Belarusian civilian he saw on video, Sergei Kolosei, as his tormentor, the man who would also be accused of executing the four men there 11 days earlier. As I noted: "Separately, on March 29, Kolosei was accused of forcing another citizen "to confess to the fake activity against the Russian army," employing beatings, a mock execution, and "forcing him to smell a dead man." That was probably Mr. Lyzovsky. From the 18th until the 29th, even after the local tanks had left, soldier Kolosei (rank unknown) of whatever unit - the Mozyr Postal Brigade? - was running these cartoonish Russian terror ops in this area. Do we buy that? Who was it really? Were they even the Russians at all by this time?

26) R) ~4/2: as a reminder, though it's not early control - it was Kiev's extremists in Bucha when those five men were killed at the children's camp, probably late on the 2nd, hours after some of them openly admitted they were executing people without blue armbands. None of the 5 killed had one. One had a white armband. Was that really the first time they did this? 

https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/04/bucha-massacre-basement-executions-in.html