Clashes at the Continent Center

Death in Bucha's Gray Zone, part 10: Clashes at the Continent Center

August 11, 2022 (still rough and incomplete, but huge)

last edits August 14

The Continent combined residential-commercial center is a new addition to Bucha, begun only in 2018 and still not complete when Russia invaded. It's one of the places they occupied, with military vehicles seen ... I wrote about this earlier in part 1, using vague, distance images underrating the damage to suggest Ukrainian forces spared it just because it was nice. And no towers will need torn down, but what's more interesting is the serious damage it DID suffer and what that says.

A Continent Mall starter page on Facebook shared designs with a darker color scheme into mid-2018, with no photos of it for real. Current Google Maps satellite view shows 6 buildings mostly done, just the foundation of another building south of those, and one of 2 town houses on the west done. By 2022 both town houses were done, and the tower at the south end of the complex was nearly finished. (some background images here) Correction: Millennium State is off-frame to the SE. This northern part is called Millennium City.

Above: reference map, from a dated satellite view (Google Maps) with more recent additions marked roughly in white. 11-story towers 1-6 (my numbers) completed and occupied before the invasion - a 15-story finishing block to the south was nearing completion - final plan was to have it look like this from the south (right). 

Continent center was still occupied by Russian forces on the afternoon of March 29th - or in a drone image posted that night (possibly taken on a previous day, in what seems to be overcast early afternoon sunlight) - LiveUAMap - Twitter

But they were apparently in the process of vacating: "In Bucha, Russian troops moved everything what they've looted in Continent residential complex towards Blystavitsa - property owner" - as if they were now gone, or were partly gone - taken as "confirmation that some Russian troops indeed leaving positions in Kyiv region."

Checking my pretty inclusive archive of satellite and drone views, there are none from before March 23 that show this area, in much detail or at all. Azov Battalion drone views show it variously between March 23 and 30, from a distance at the same angle where we can see external activity along the west side. AFVs and military trucks are marked in red (5 total), mostly appearing the 24th, One seen in the above image is at the pink box here, where it may not be present yet (this image was taken earlier in the day). Some cars are marked in gold in gold, another left in the entrance in lime green. On 3/30 the cars remain, but just one tank remains (green arrow) - it moved a meter or so and it was left. 

Just a few signs of violence are visible from here - building 2 hit (red box - smoke stains present by 3/23), and some damage in the street below it that has a likely crater visible the whole time (orange dot), and some greasy splatter around it that's maybe just clearer when it's rained (3/30, orange box), or it might be newer. Unless something was added, the violence behind these marks was all done before the 23rd. There's other damage we'll look at that's not as clear, but most likely also complete by the 23rd.

So they apparently left by driving, not getting blown up. But it's when they arrived and what happened after are the subjects of interest here.

First Arrival

What's more interesting than Russians shooting at the Continent center is their military occupation of the buildings, whereafter shooting at the place should logically be by the Ukrainians. Russian forces reportedly arrived nearby on March 3 and then seriously occupied the area, and the whole city, by the 5th. But they may well have expanded their presence at certain spots after that. 

Carlotta Gall, New York Times, April 11: "Russian reinforcements arrived several days later in an aggressive mood. They set up base in an apartment complex behind School No 3, the main high school on Vokzalna, or Station Street, and posted a sniper in a high-rise building still under construction."

The time frame is specified in the article as March 5 (several days after the massive defeat of Feb. 27). The "apartment complex" probably refers to the Continent center, just north of the school, with its unfinished high rise at the south end. It sounds like they arrived there on the 5th, but that isn't spelled out like it is (in other articles) with their arrival at 33b Tsentralna, where they would set up a local headquarters. 

In fact, all we have for Continent specifies a later arrival. A Babel.UA timeline includes "They came here, it seems, around the 9th [of March], — says Oleksiy, a resident of the Continent residential complex in Bucha. — At first, around ten people came. Most likely, it was an assault brigade. And in four or five days [approximately March 13-14], mortar teams arrived. There were six small mortars and seven small infantry fighting vehicles. They placed their infantry fighting vehicles between the houses. Only shells were brought." Eventually we would be at least 10 AFVs and a few trucks, so more may have arrived after the 13th-14th. 

There was some early violence here, evidenced by broken windows at the offices of internet provider Best. Mainly just outer panes were broken, except one that was all removed, since boarded over. Best ISP owner Oleksii Zinevich shared the photo. (Ukrainian National Rada) The same scene was also photographed by local Dmytro Tkachuk, perhaps on his way out of Bucha on March 6, and maybe earlier, but not later. (euromaidanpress - props to Qoppa for noticing both images) 

Location: deduced by Qoppa as on the northeast corner of tower 1's ground floor, on the north face (views of tower 1 recessed, 2 roofs, presence of circular planters lacking on the east side). Olga Reznikova's video shows a sign and a wi-fi booth by an entrance on the east side of the same corner.

The Rada article comes with a narrative, referring mainly to the linked offices of the "TV company" Pohliad. Its title was "“They came not to steal, but to destroy” – how the “Pohliad” (“The View”) media outlet was shot in Bucha." According to this, "the russian invaders shelled the residential complex “Continent”, where the premises of the Buchan “Pohliad” were located, during the first days of March." Seeming to flash back, it continues "A column of tanks, which was then destroyed by the Ukrainian troops at Vokzalna Street, passed by the residential complex and managed to shoot at the house." That will be Feb. 27. IMI.org reported "Russian troops blitzed the studio of  Poglyad TV channel on February 27. This was announced on February 28 by the National Council of Television and Radio Broadcasting. According to the National Council, the company is now setting up broadcasting from another location." "After that," the Rada piece continues, "the staff still sewed the broken windows of the TV company office with plywood..." - as was also done at Best - "...but in a few days there was already a ruin." 

Indeed, much worse damage to that north face would come later than that image of the 6th or earlier - possibly as said in the "first days" of March, so soon after, so anywhere between the 1st and perhaps the 10th, depending. We'll come back to this. The window that was just damaged before is gone, but it was on the left here. 

Rada Pohliad article: After that, "On March 15, the russians entered the premises of the TV company." The last guard who was inside was able to escape and go out unnoticed on March 20. The man reached our people and succeeded to left the city on foot under the bullets. ... The journalists and employees of the “Pohliad” managed to escape timely. They left Bucha, Irpin, Hostomel in early March. The latter fleet on March 12." 

"The russian fascists robbed the entire residential complex “Continent”. The loot was taken out of the town by cars, the owners of the apartments were thrown out of the windows, shot in the yard." Sounds pretty trustworthy source, from a national pariliment's article writers, who childlishly refuse to capitalize Russia(n) - the place and its people are not even proper nouns anymore! Boy, doesn't that make a point? 

Anyway, it also says "the russians installed their cables and equipment in the TV company. Near the “Pohliad” there was a communications vehicle of the occupiers, to conduct radio surveillance," and

"the barbarism in the premises of the “Pohliad” lasted for two weeks" [~3/15-3/29] 

Pohliad location: apparently intermixed with Best: the Rada article shows a photo of "The robbed office of the Buchan “Pohliad”" with the Best logo on the wall. They had a greenscreen 3D studio.  Green panels along the windows seen from outside on east and north sides of the NE corner (Reznikova 6:31). A 2020 video show the north facade (video route was projected onscreen like that) with a sign in the middle saying Pohliad, in Cyrillic letters Погляд - which I'd render Pohliyad, and which I get for "Polgyad" meaning "view." That helped me notice just I had gotten it wrong as "Polihad." 

Note: "During the occupation, the Internet service provider “Best” had been heroically fighting. The ISP employees and the owner Oleksii Zinevich personally saved the networks so that Buchans and Irpinians would be with the Internet for as long as possible. Even when there were battles, Zinevich and his people, overcoming fear and risking their own lives, established transmission lines. They promptly restored the networks affected by the explosion of the Romanivsky Bridge, and already under the russian occupation, their guerrilla tactics in the zone of great danger let restore the Internet, where it was possible. On March 25, they had to escape in order not to be captured by the russian invaders. Unfortunately, not everyone was able to get out of the occupation – the driver of the company died, there is still no connection with some employees of the ISP, their fate is unknown."

"Heroically fighting" is meant figuratively, but might have also been more literal. Is that related to their windows getting shot at on the 27th, or to the demise and disappearance of others?

So the Russians arrived the 9th or so, expanded their presence the 13th or 14th, took the TV studio on the 15th and then trashed it. Rada: "They smashed the furniture, the kitchen, the offices with sledgehammers – everything had been destroyed." It probably wasn't them with sledgehammers that wrecked the place they would later use. Mainly it's windows and panels blown in and the ceiling collapsed, like a powerful storm blew through. That was probably by a Ukrainian strike on Russian tanks just 40 meters from the windows. Russian hands may be involved, like severed ones flying in through the windows, along with some other parts of them.

Electric Station Attacks 

The strongest blasts in the area may have predated this arrival around the 9th, at the electricity sub-station just north of Continent, where at least two armored fighting vehicles were obliterated. It's possible these were early attacks, by Russians against Ukrainian tanks based there. But there's no word or sign of that, and it happened roughly as or after the Russians were in control, so it's probably a Ukrainian attack on Russian vehicles. 

A massive drone view Qoppa had saved shows the area in April, with my labels added. 

A basic idea of debris spread from both tanks hit (stars), with pink circles for worst fragment spread (circles assuming no directionality), plus the other likely hits. 4 blasts along the fence, some with radii overlapping - and this placement is just approximate -  might help explain the wall damage. But otherwise, blast D isn't even certain - it just looks possible and makes sense.

On the right, there were at least two and probably three major blasts inside a formerly walled area, knocking out the concrete fence almost totally, with just a teetering remnant of coulns at the bend. Probably some kind of powerful rocket, missile, or heavy artillery was used. Spot C had an AFV, with a large remaining piece - mainly the left side wheels and tread - visible in a closer photo at right  -  one building was directly hit, visible in the background there.

Below is a better view of the intact portion up close - composite from Nagorny video, 6:52. The same video also has a view from the other side of the "guts" left close by, at 7:04.

Much of its debris wound up hitting and piling around a shed, or roofed area of electrical equipment just to the north. As ween here and around, the central building's rickety old roof was widely damaged as well. Буча. Главный символ преступлений российской армии в Украине - YouTube 

Spots B and D were apparently empty so just soil and trees were impacted, which might limit the last wave and fragmentation a bit. The left blast A obliterated another AFV, along with its own explosive ammunition, some time after the first blasts; the fence is only blown outward - some debris lands on the collapsed wall. Other debris spreads widely in all directions, perhaps more to the west - Bucha Shock video shows the grounds (22:30 ) with the gun and much other debris. 

On the west edge along the entrance road is a bit of extra chaos - a van that veered into a tree after suffering damage - that and another tree broken low - a totally smashed sign - tracks from another vehicle that was left there for weeks and moved more recently (debris accumulation) - an abandoned car is in the road just behind us was likely it (in the 3/23 to 3/20 drone views above: it's marked lime green). This may all be from the nearest tank blast, or there might have been something further that happened here.

As mapped above, the blast radius is just very large, and not clearly stronger in any direction - as if they used a missile that comes straight down. Therefore, I drew circles instead of some kind of oblong. I could be wrong in that, but I can't say which way, so ... And as that shows, these blasts could well have caused perhaps all the damage seen on the north facades of Continent buildings 1 and 2 -  impact C is in the best spot to have damaged the office space of Best ISP and Pohliad TV.

Impacts F, G & H in the map above (along north wall): F & G seen in stories of survivors video at 44:34 (F = NE wall, direct and massive damage, likely 3 impacts (at the gate and behind each wall panel) and 44:37 (G = north wall). F's angled line suggests an incoming angle roughly parallel with the wall. G's angled line seems to curve, so it's not parallel but less than 45 degrees from that. The wall is near 45 degrees different here. Both cases suggest the same - incoming fire from the southeast.

H: Rebuild Ukraine Bucha damage report shows damage at spots F and G and at least one more clear impact H (top, left of center), taking out some fence and starting a fire inside, as happened at impact F. The direction of artillery fire isn't clear from this, bur likely the same as the others.

Finally, a dead man lays just outside the electric station, east of the damaged areas, - this seemed too far to connect, was outside the intact wall, but the red car was probably affected, and its bumper ... flew almost to him, as if ricocheting after the tank blast hit it, some other debris flew past (a jagged bit, lower left), and likely some flew right into him. 

How? Never mind the bumper - they came over the fence. A small tree just ahead of him was decapitated. He probably had the same happen. Or got to keep most of his head, just not enough to stay alive. 

When? This man was killed and laying there prior to drone views of March 24, probably before the murkier March 23 view. Again, I haven't seen any earlier views to even check how long before that he was there. But this is handy; those drone views never show the area of the tank attacks; it seems they should have occurred by then, and this body confirms that.

As said, the Pohliad office was "shelled" in the "first days of March," a "few days" after February 27. But it clearly happened after that photo where there is no such damage. Most likely it happened soon after. This might inspire a move any armor they had there in between the buildings - to make it harder for long-range artillery to hit them, and costlier if it did. But then just ten soldiers reported coming on the 9th, with AFVs, or new ones, only coming later. Still, this lesson would hold - they would want to nestle into the Continent complex.

Short-Range Mortar Strikes?

One last detail of the electric station attacks: besides likely missiles from no discernable direction, there are at least two smaller and clearer craters on the grounds west of the station - a pole is down from another impact, not as clear just where ... debris from the craters spreads a bit differently between the two.

The similar but divergent angles of fire suggest a close range to the NNW - in fact these approximate lines converge about 52 meters away near a small patch of trees along Vokzalna street. Let's says it's about 56-60 meters, among the trees, which only make sense as visual cover for a mortar crew of maybe 2 or so. The area is crucial, being next to central Vokzalna street where it crosses the railroad tracks (one of just spots the tracks can be crossed). It should be secure and this cover is only 2-3 trees deep, so it wouldn't be easy. But it's also not impossible, and the evidence suggests it happened, sneaky as that would be.

Consider in the map above, points F, G and H correspond to probably 5 artillery/mortar strikes from the SE. That might pin down soldiers based along the station's north wall, giving a chance for a mortar crew to sneak past them, on the way in or out.

The issue or plausible ranges came up, so I had a quick look. Wikipedia says: "Modern mortars ... are short-range weapons and often more effective than artillery for many purposes within their shorter range. In particular, because of its high, parabolic trajectory with a near vertical descent, the mortar can land bombs on nearby targets, including those behind obstacles or in fortifications, such as light vehicles behind hills or structures, or infantry in trenches or spider holes."

Minimum ranges I see around for popular models include 70, 100, and 200 meters. In general, 3 views from a Reddit discussion put the minimum mortar ranges much shorter: "minimum range is like 10-20m" - "Minimum 15" - "According to my experience, the minimum range of mortar is around 36m." Shortest range almost seems to be how safe you feel with it coming down there.  

So a sort-range, probably light mortar, with shells of limited power, as far as I know, is the best explanation for these craters. They can't take out tanks, I presume, but might kill some Russian soldiers, perhaps ones who came out to check for survivors after one of the tank attacks. It also might have happened later, or earlier. Sneaky things can be like that.

Especially at these short ranges, mortar shells can arc high and descend almost vertically, so when targets are hit in between tall buildings, very few angles and only the shortest of ranges can be ruled out. 

Signs: quite a few marks of shelling between the building, analyzed below - mostly minor, like little bullet holes, and fairly random, hard to read patterns with - likely because it's short-range fire with little incoming angle, which is how I estimate direction of travel.

Cars were intentionally flipped as barricades, propped up with timbers, and not for no reason - they saw shelling attacks, and might have expected close-quarters gunfights. Some barricades show how they did their work. The Russians might pick out cars already damaged to flip, and then they suffer new damage that only makes sense in this position (yellow - might be dented on the driver's side, prior to the damage all along its hood and roof), The black van probably took a few hits as a barricade, after some as a vehicle.

Another thing they devised: a likely dummy air defense system (a logical opinion) - It apparently didn't attract any direct hits - just some fragmentation marks are visible. 

 

As noted, minimum range can be in the low tens of meters - buildings about 23 meters wide, 33 meters long - it might be possible to fire over the tower from its very foot and hit the very foot on the other side, though it's doubtful anyone got that close. More plausible distances from neighboring buildings (100-200m) would be a snap to hit with slightly less vertical descent. Here's the idea. It's pretty basic.

Now Ukraine could only hit them with short-range mortars, but you can't do that from Irpin - that would take getting up close. 

Getting Up Close? 

Officially, Ukrainian forces were not in control of any part of the city after March 4 or 5, and implicitly had no military presence at all, although they don't explicitly deny it that I know of, and I wouldn't believe the denial if they did. I can't prove that armed groups of them capable of mayhem were present anywhere, but assembled a case for it ... In Death in Bucha's Gray Zone part 9, I mapped possible areas on control or operation and considered fake Russians might have been running the base at 221b Yablunska and east of there - depth of cover suggests they'd try to occupy buildings to the east and attack from there, if they were to attack the Continent complex.

As noted there, a CBC video report related (at 1:48) how in the area around the Continent center "the Russian attacks on civilians intensified on March 18th." A video filmed by local Volodomyr Lyzovsky is shared. It shows the Millennium State area seen from the south, with Continent just off frame on the left. The audio track has bursts of automatic gunfire - the kind that usually comes with up-close battles. Light gray smoke fills the air across the whole area like the sounds do. It's not clear exactly where the noise and smoke are coming from. But what is pretty clear is that two hostile military forces are operating in this area, at this time, which should be on or soon after the 18th of March. If the 18th, it's just 4-5 days after the Russians established a serious presence at Continent, for what that's worth.

Where: Video filmed from the third house from the south on Nazariia Yaremchuka St. (Google Maps, Yandex don't give an address). Yellow, with detached garage.

Time of day: it's hazy, down here, but lit facades at Millennium State are more on the south/SE ends) and above the smoke, sunlight on clouds says the same, shining roughly along our line of sight - azimuth ~168 = around 11:25 AM if it's on or near the 18th of March (NOAA solar calculator). 

If it's the 18th, an execution of up to 4 men happened just 3 houses down on Yablunska the same day. That's the famous case with 3 bodies seen next to pallets of paving stones, one with his hands bound by white cloth. Purported video has sunlight suggesting that was earlier - around 10:30, +/- 15 minutes (az ~152). A Maxar satellite view of roughly the same time (logically a bit later) shows the bodies present. If it's the same day, this apparent battle is raging about an hour after that execution, for what that's worth.

Also, if it's the 18th, the last security guard at Pohliad would still be at Continent during the attack, according to the Rada article, only managing to escape on the 20th. 

Back to the video: as Lyzovsky steps back to take cover, he also turns to look to the west, between 2 houses over on Oleksy Tykoho street - as if something there might relate to the attacks. Blocked from view but right where he looks is a house on the local Russians apparently used as a base, where he says he was beaten by them later, on the 29th. Just south of that and across the street, a local base at 221b Yablunska ... did the Russians based there have something to do with these clashes?

The same witness Lyzovsky says the Russians conducted door to door searches in the area around his home, starting the 18th and running to at least the 29th, with shots heard in some cases. On the 29th, he says they came to his door, severely beat him at the indicated house trying to force a confession that he helped Ukrainian forces, then marched to Yablunska street to see the dead bodies, and mock-executed him. It seems Lyzovsky may be the one who identified Belarusian civilian Sergei Kolosei as his lead tormentor. This leaves open the question who was truly in charge of these late actions of "the Russians" in the area between east Yablunska and the Continent Center. 

Building Damage Analysis

Some cited videos: 

ЖК Continent 🏚 Як постраждав ЖК Контінент в місті Буча під час війни

Apr 13, 2022 (filmed April 12) by Шукаю Житло (Looking for Housing) channel of Serhii Nagorny (hereafter Nagorny video)

Bucha. What did I see with my own eyes. by Olga Reznikova Jun 4, 2022

БУЧА.ШОК.BUCHA.06.04.22 (Bucha Shock) 

Буча – что там произошло на самом деле? Истории выживших. July 25 (stories of survivors)

Буча. Главный символ преступлений российской армии в Украине - YouTube 

First, the north corners between 1 & 2 as already looked at: damage to north faces, east faces of building 2 to a point = from the northeast, likely from tank destruction. Note on the right two large tears in the gray wall of building 2 (corresponding to residential floors 1 & 2) and a large patch of cladding is gone from floor 5, seemingly right above that.

The two big tears in the cladding above are seen close up in Reznikova's video at 16:33 - exposed, small-seeming bricks beneath - we'll be seeing this a lot. The bottom one has a riveted piece of steel like from a tank embedded deep in the concrete. 

The other tear probably has the same cause, as do other marks in this area - the same that damaged this car and set it ablaze, leaving on the worst burnt-out wrecks I've seen around. 

However, the larger damage above those 2 scrapes - and most of the other damage throughout, is probably not from that, but from shelling directed at the buildings. Again, the complex was occupied by Russian forces, so those attacking them would presumably be some part of the Ukrainian armed forces, who officially had no such presence here.

8 "Scraping" Impacts

The east and south faces of buildings 1, 2, and 4 bear some explosive impacts - eight that I've noticed - with a characteristic shape: a sharp upper edge to the damage (a line of extreme damage with almost none above it) and a more ovular area of damage and peeled cladding beneath it. 

4 Scrapes on Building 4: east side, middle = at least 4 serious impacts floors 3, 6, and 8, lettered A-D below -  all with top lines angling a bit counterclockwise of horizontal.  I'll show these with red lines showing likely direction of fire - I'll explain this below. 

The opposite facade - west side of building 3 - has a lot of broken windows and light fragmentation marks, but as far as I've seen, no direct impacts like the 4 across from it. The clear suggestion here is fire from the east and not from the west. (Nagorny 7:13)

Building 2, east side: this spot is on the right line to suffer some tank blast damage, and it might have, but it looks just like one of the above marks transplanted onto the next building - again, a sharp start to the damage on a nearly-horizontal line, with a curving patch of cladding scraped away beneath that. Some bits fall away in later views.

1 south - the same patterns above don't quite apply - if the same direction does, then this impact from the east would be closer to parallel with the wall to the clean "upper" edge would be a right-upper edge. There's no clear line there, just where the cladding changes - an arbitrary local development.  after cleanup, some more cladding removed above - presumably damaged or loosened anyway - the kind of line I'd expect is more evident, but perhaps pointing more to the right than it should (more arbitrary local details?). Anyway, more or less: another hit from the east.

Building 4, south side, near the basketball court -  

This is similar to the above ...but even cleaner corner effect - impact with a south wall (right, oblique) and an east wall (left, more direct) - clearly closer to parallel than perpendicular - clean edge angles down, going with an incoming angle from the right, necessary to hit both these walls.

2 south, upper 10th floor balcony - yet another corner impact, this one taking out a balcony - not seen well and the pattern isn't so clear -  the balcony is just gone - some damage to the left seems to be on the same line - what we can see for the yellow line looks horizontal = straight-in, or limited on the left by the balcony above (probable). Some blurry damage signs to the right might connect, and are on nearly the same line but a bit lower = again a slope down to the right, albet milder here. 

Other Impacts

An interesting impact occurred at the playground behind building 2, well shown in Olga Reznikova's video. There are a lot of different marks, but a clear pattern emerges with the heaviest marks that punch through fibergalss and metal and tear through wood like airborne buzzsaws - it seems this shell hit the slide - no explosive crater around - may have used a proximity fuze to detonate just before contact, so the slide impact is all mechanical and heat damage from the spent shell. Several oblique impacts due to its angle - wooden parts of the playground were cut the worst in a basic pattern of low to high ... all through the playground from there - slicing wood lower on the left/south, angling higher north to the back wall of 2, where it angles up right to left - continuing in the next image that shows some higher yet damage and a clearer view of the rising marks on the wall they go with - this band should be roughly perpendicular to the shell's incoming angle, which is partly aimed into this south-facing wall, but more so from the right, so closer to parallel with the wall = from local SE or actual east. 

In the same playground behind 2, west corner - almost at the base of a west and north walls, smashing some swings and something else, ripping up rubber tiles - line of fire must be from the southeast, east, or northeast. Some light fragmentation marks on the walls don't help me establish much.

Reznikova video 12:15-12:30 - pavement between 2 & 4 - a crude "splash" or "rose" pattern in bricks isn't terribly clear, but might suggest travel from back to building 4's NE corner, or pretty much from the southeast - frag pattern on near wall seems consistent (low and dense) - the opposite side not so clear.

Building 2, west side: there isn't much damage to the outsides of the buildings at all, from the east or the west. But there is this one puncture of a 7th floor window that started a big fire inside. Photo below was from a Censore.net article. See also Bucha Shock 22:40  Smoke stains visible in drone footage from 3/23 forward - some roofline damage above and to the right - if connected, that might suggest an origin from left of straight in. Otherwise, it could be fired from the west, southwest, or south. It's not clear this connects to the mid-March shelling. It might be a tank shell fired at some Ukrainian snipers, say on March 3-5, or possibly back on Feb. 27 when they were also shooting around Best ISP on Continent's north side.

2 SW corner, lower floors - cladding gone on both faces, but some intact between - no clear pattern or meaning.

The basketball court between 4 and 6 was hit on its west edge, not really clear from what direction, but probably from the west - the court's rubberized surface is all torn up and burned, with some arcing shapes.  (stories of survivors video, 24:17) The court is visible but mostly covered in the 3/29 drone image - the visible part doesn't look blackened, but the west edge does look roughed up.

3 north: possible hit on an AFV that was able to leave, but lost a utility box (red) and some other bits that scraped the walls and broke the windows. A very few fragments also hit the wall. Unclear to me. (Nagorny 6:09) 

Roofs and rooflines: one I cannot place yet, or call directions, so I didn't bother reading the splash pattern and crater (foreground, mostly covered), or the dense frag marks ahead of that, and the angled line of the removed cladding. 

4 NW upper corner roofline - likely hit from the west to northwest (not southwest) - may be early, as with 1 west, above - likely Russian fire, from before they ran the place.

3 east middle roofline - see below. 

Best ISP - east side - ground floor window hit on the bottom frame - otherwise, the east side suffered no direct hits like those seen on the inner faces. Most windows out on the left, probably from the tank blast C passing obliquely over this corner - but there's no sign of direct damage from that, even in a closer view, except north-facing surfaces. Maybe the blast just blew through these windows from inside. Some other windows out might result from the noted or other unclear blasts, or rifle shooting from the east.

There are other impacts, but most aren't clear and this seems like plenty for now. Anything clearly useful or especially interesting I notice will/might be added later.

A scene map with all noted impacts placed ... impact locations are a bit approximate, and shown angles of fire are mainly estimated, but should be close to reality - the most interesting ones - the scraping wall impacts are the red lines on the east and south faces - explained next. ...

Reading the "Scraping" Impacts

The east and south faces of buildings 1, 2, and 4 bear some marks - seven that I've noticed - with a characteristic shape: a sharp upper edge to the damage and a more ovular area of damage and peeled facade below it - straight in would leave even circular marks - a highly vertical impact might create this different shape - crude sketch at right - the blast force is mainly straight out from the tube, but angled forward with trajectory - when this is mainly down, the overall force will project down the face, scraping it for some ways. Other parts of it, and its hurled primary fragments, will fly down and out, into the space here and the Russian soldiers and armor occupying it.

As for the clean upper line of these impacts - a flight path perpendicular to building facade would leave an upper edge of damage on a horizontal line (or perhaps really a faint curve, but it reads well end-to-end as a line). Most of these lines angle to the left or right, however, suggesting fire from left or right of straight (down and) in. I reasoned that if perpendicular = horizontal, parallel or sideways impact would form a vertical line, and the difference from one or the other in the upper impact line could be read as the difference from perpendicular or parallel.

The scraping impacts, especially those on building 4, seem the most telling. Here are the 4 on its east face skewed to match an orthogonal view and allow a basic measure of that sharp upper line. All appeared similar and they are, but I measured a real difference between those on the left (9-9.5 degrees counter-clockwise from horizontal) and on the right (both 13.5 degrees). These angles probably aren't exact, but to be so similar, the real angles must be fairly close. As drawn above, these are 9 and 13 degrees from perpendicular.

This difference makes sense for attacks from a common point. ... these exact angles, from the approximate impact points, converge about 95 meters from the wall, or 50m outside the complex. The true angles might intersect further out and a bit north or south. I'm not declaring a firing spot yet, but I'm sure it's in this small area, 100-200 meters out. 

So ... mortars fired from the east of building 4 - somewhere in, on, or near Millennium City, or even from the road or parking lot. The building 2 impact looks a bit divergent when I eyeballed its angle I on the same template in a throw-away image, and got that angle (11 degrees from perpendicular, I think it was). It might line up with a better reading, or diverge further and come from a different spot ...like the south end of the new shops. 

South faces hit from a different area a similar distance to the southeast - perhaps next to the unfinished building if that were possible, or the roads or fields nearby.

1 east - as noted - many windows out, no blast signs generally, so likely gunfire - mortar crews fired at, fired back  - across the way, in Reznikova's video, we can see perhaps some of the same, but not much sign of shelling damage in return - she thought they looked fine, but she noticed the shops got smashed in, maybe by looters, she says surely Russian - the shop on the right/south end seems burned out, its sign vanished, maybe like it was shelled, albeit with little structural damage we can see.  Millennium City is a bit far off to the right, no damage visible from here, and windows unclear - Tarasivska 8a in the middle, no clear damage, but a lot of open or missing windows - closer up, only a few possible marks appear - some missing window frame right behind the burned shop  (turns out it was like that since the 2020 video). Closer up, we could see more. That's just where the mortar impact on building 2 might have been fired from - that line, ~160m. Hmmm. Did they get this close?

On the left, in the distance, Tarasivska 10b, did get some hit and a fire (yellow) - off-frame in all my maps - on a good line for building 2 mortar fire as well - ~400m ENE of building 1 - but maybe too far to achieve the kind of descent needed.

That inset drone views show some tracks driven around this store prior to the 23rd, like the Russians drove up to counter-attack or to investigate later. But that could also be earlier and coincidental. Novus damage .... to note a bit more ... Qoppa has some images showing the hole blasted in the roof - I haven't clarified the scene or directional clues yet. but Qoppa thinks it came from the southeast. It's a plausible base of attacks on Continent to be hit in return, or maybe another Russian post the Ukrainians attacked - either way, Ukrainian forces capable of things like this were in here in mid-March. What else were they responsible for here? Where else were they, and what did they do in those shadows of Bucha's gray zone?