A December Week of "Russians Shelling Themselves" in Donetsk

December 7, 2022

(rough, incomplete)

updates Dec. 9, 11, 14, 17 ...

latest updates 2 January, 2023

Central Donetsk, a city in Russia, has recently seen intense, renewed shelling, damaging buildings, injuring and killing its citizens, including children and civic leaders. Again, there are claims that try - but with little effort - to blame the Russians or DPR forces for shelling their own, yet again, presumably just to make the noble Ukrainians look bad. 

Previously, I looked into a string of attacks over a month from August 23 to September 22 ... Monitor on Massacre Marketing: One Month of "Russians Shelling Themselves" in Donetsk (libyancivilwar.blogspot.com) Counter-claims dissolve in the face of ballistic reality. Of 7 attacks, one seemed to originate from Russian-DPR areas (possible accident, or maybe a penetrated front line), and six clearly came from the Ukrainian-controlled northwest, targeting local administration, emergency services, public transit, public markets, and manifestations of Russian or Soviet culture.

I had a quick starting review of what seems to be 6+ attack dates in just over a week - Nov. 29 to December 6 or 7 (if the 7th yields much to add). That's almost daily shelling, with several shells on some days, and that's probably incomplete. 

I hardly did any geolocation for the first few scenes I'll start with. One scene was familiar and so I identified that one (6C below), and I was looking for others when I noticed other people - notably a "Mike Papa Whiskey" (Cosmonaut19 on Twitter) - had already placed the ones I was looking for. So I double-check to confirm, then do the ballistic analysis. No surprise, these shells tend to come from the Ukrainian-controlled northwest, as they have been since 2014. 

Clearly, this area needs to be demilitarized sooner or later. But then, creating that impression is why some people think the Russians/DPR keep shelling their own people, making the case for 8 friggin' years now. But then, how do they keep doing it from the Ukrainian-held northwest? 

arranged below from most recent back - for now just filling in the big one from yesterday, with at least 8 11 attack spots to consider. 

See also: Donetsk December shelling 

week 2 https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/12/another-long-december-week-of-russians.html

week 3 https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/12/who-was-behind-christmas-eve-shelling.html

w4 f/c

December 6 attacks 

Still from a video via Dan Kovalik https://twitter.com/danielmkovalik/status/1600156072798392321

It was Ukraine's Armed Forces Day on December 6. It seems they had a celebration. Denis Pushilin, acting head of the Donetsk People's Republic (#DPR), says Ukraine fired more than 130 artillery rounds that killed 4 people and left another 19 wounded in Russian-held cities in the region. Later reports would claim at least 6, and then 8 had died just in the city of Donetsk, and the shelling there went on overnight. 

Among those killed was Maria Pirogova, a 29-year-old MP in the local people’s council and civic volunteer since 2014 (RT) along with Vadim Labuzov, frontman of the band Rezonans, were "among 8 civilians killed at the DNR Youth Centre, Donetsk, today, in continued  shelling by Ukrainian forces." (John Moran) 8 dead at one spot would mean well more than that total. But that's not clear. I've heard at least 3 died there.

These impacts are all in the hard-hit central Voroshylovs'kyi district of the city, or in the southern Kyiski district just north of that.

6A: Youth Center

"At least 8 people were killed and 11 injured after the shelling of Donetsk by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, purely terrorism" (photo of where Pirogova was killed at the Youth Center) Russian bot #Z on Twitter

Geolocation: 47.989902, 37.803953 - southern Voroshylovs'kyi  district

https://twitter.com/Cosmonaut19/status/1600154863413104641

Given that location - which I can confirm is accurate - it's the building's north side that was hit, so the projectile had to come partly from the north. The band of heaviest fragmentation damage starts low at the doorway and slopes up to the left or to the west. See combined video frames, and in the photo, see the pattern continue further to the left. Some lighter marks like slices can be seen higher up, sloping down to the right. There will be a band of these sloping up to the left above the heavier marks. The munition trajectory will be roughly perpendicular to this sloping band of damage, or an impact from the right = from west of north or northwest.

Video: https://twitter.com/_BABACAR/status/1600665117690974208

Two people at the door seem to hear something coming, move to the car, seem to look up to the right. The rocket hits, blasting one body back a meter or so to where it's seen, and otherwise the fireball and smoke all rolls well to the left or east. Same conclusion.

6B Chelyuskintsiv st. impact 1 

geolocation: https://twitter.com/Cosmonaut19/status/1600099871805276160

Destroyed cars after strike in the centre of Donetsk, Donetsk Oblast.

Geolocation: 48.014034, 37.807681

Fragment splash pattern is sharp and clear - from the northwest. Marks higher on the wall ahead, but spread out and including some lower marks, is consistent with that. 

6C Chelyuskintsiv st. impact 1 

shops and parked cars damaged and set ablaze - intense fires raged for hours (chronic water shortage routinely hampers firefighting efforts)

Geolocation: https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1600440815859298304

a ways south of 6B at the markets where a bus was hit back on September 22.

https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2022/10/one-month-of-russians-shelling.html

A photo after the fires (my source) shows the impact crater, apparently, and what should be some grooves from underside shrapnel - it seems incomplete, with a crater elongate compared to normal, and also points almost due west, not northwest like other impacts. The forward ascending arc of heaviest marks is partly clear, showing a serious westward angle - maybe exclusively west like the pavement marks suggest.

6D Shopping Center - 1 killed 

https://twitter.com/ivan_8848/status/1599791025597210627

https://twitter.com/Cosmonaut19/status/1600076471485489155

https://twitter.com/Cosmonaut19/status/1600076412295446529

A civilian killed during an artillery strike near 'Donetsk City' shopping centre.

Geolocation: 48.030522, 37.789545 - on Artema street just south of Donetsk City shopping center, in the Kyiski district (just north of Voroshylovs'kyi)

Crater at north corner (local orientation is some 45 degrees), ruptured up a bit on the west side, damage all up the nearest (north) face, and more to the NW sides (right) than the NE sides (left) plus a fatality to the east = probably from NW, or somewhere in the shown range. 

6E Pushkin Blvd.

geoloc: https://twitter.com/Cosmonaut19/status/1600108941937364993

Rocket arrived, 33 Pushkin Boulevard. Donetsk, Donetsk Oblast. Google street view from 2011.

Geolocation: 48.007764, 37.801875

The building's west face was hit, so the shell came partly from the west. Damage pattern angles up to the right (south), so it came partly from the left (north) = from northwest. Also the embedded rocket tube remnant points slightly to the northwest (slightly left if the middle view, where that's a mix of west away from the wall and north away from the camera).

6F department or clothing store, a woman killed https://twitter.com/dana916/status/1600200637332869121

Would have to check store layout to say the direction. Let's just say it's presumably the same as the others. Placement for mapping: f/c

F possible location: Yellow shopping center - 47.9895945,37.8036886 - Google Maps - this was mentioned as a strike location, and has orange trim and curves like seen through the crater, but I can't identify an exact spot or angle. Below: crater view vs. photo from the north - we might see the raised area visible in the photo, which faces north. The damage inside seems to angle right to left, or from the west. If this is all the case, that means an impact from the west or northwest.

6G Orthodox temple, woman injured https://twitter.com/UKRAINEC_DNEPR/status/1600130497115365376

Svyato-Preobrazhensʹkyy Kafedralʹnyy Sobor, Orthodox Church

Location: about at 48.0102689,37.8036801

Add Dec. 9: images and analysis.

Frame comparison and Google Earth views help clarify it's the north entry shown slightly damaged (yellow box), and the northeast corner to its left impacted, seemingly just glancing. There's only very minor damage and perhaps no fragmentation marks, which might suggest a drone was used (I've seen similar at Energodar city council when it was twice hit with drones - blog post stalled, forthcoming). The sort of scrape (orange) and the burned patch (gold) are perpendicular, so one is the trajectory and the other detonation effects. At least since northwest keeps coming up, I show how this might point NW (gold) with the streak being the fragmentation band, or whatever passes for that in this weapon. The area isn't seen close enough to be clear what happened in that band. But to me, the southeast angle explains it better, as well as the apparent deflections on the inner wall and down into the recessed area (lime) and splintered door (green).    

No Ukrainian artillery to the NW could have a shell come in from the southeast, unless it were a drone or something that maneuverable. They could totally do that.

More thoughts: Frequent collaborator Michael Kobs favors a NW reading - raises questions about the smashed door - I'm not sure yet,   12/17 update: new view clarifies the light streak is fragmentatuion damage, so the church was hit from NW, not SE. (2) Adam Larson #EndtheOPCWCoverup #FreeAssange on Twitter 

6H high-rise hit high up 

https://twitter.com/elenaevdokimov7/status/1600148596648656897

Geolocation: 48.0166973,37.8107975, on Myru Avenue - north face impacted, so hit partly from the north, from an angle by elongated damage, but which one? Glass and light debris mainly fall straight down, and there might've been a breeze.

6I 50-richchya SRSR St

Ukraine's Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security - SPRAVDI - claims this strike proves the Russians were behind all of them. (Telegram post - echoed by RBC.UA, and another analysis on Twitter). "If you pay attention to the location of the landing sites [plural], it becomes obvious that the launches took place from the [Russian-DPR] occupied territory. The Armed Forces of Ukraine could not have struck such a blow from their positions [to the northwest]. After all, then the projectile would have to turn 180 degrees in the air, which is impossible."

That reads poorly after so many strikes coming right from the northwest or north, even with the one ambiguous case. But they have an oddball here. Here's their visual aid, and Elena Evdokimova had the video to check. 

The site match is not evident, but apparently correct - the building changed since 2011. Their arrow points to 48.0157569,37.8118218 (or it should). The Google Maps 2011 street view matches what they show (top, middle). The Honda shop is on the ground floor that looks similar, but all above looks different. Still, just to the north we can see a tall building, then the stadium, matching the street view. That means, as they say, this is an east-facing wall that was hit, so partly from the east. 

This view facing north (stadium at center) shows the debris spread - mainly across the street, almost like a bomb went off inside. But there is a slight north trend to it. 

The damage above is not straight in, but from an angle, I'd say from the left (south), especially noting the debris spread.

So ... is this proof the Russians did the attack, and did most of it from the northwest? Or is this maybe from a drone that came in and U-turned before impact? That's not impossible. Or did the Russians do it all with drones, having all but this one U-turn to come from the NW at the end?

More thoughts: the angle I see is about opposite of most. What if a rocket had hit the other side of the building from the northwest and this is it blowing out the other side? That could mean from NW, W or SW. But I'd expect major damage inside, almost surely with major fires, which there's no sign of. And there might be some view of the impact on the other side. It seems possible, so I'll include it that way on my big map.

6J Chelyuskintsiv st. impact 3

(1) Elena Evdokimova on Twitter - 48.0104174,37.8078585 - curbside impact next to the central market's dome, I'm pretty sure, with blue-tarp booths just inside that fence. This is a bit south of the strike mentioned above, which is seen burning moments earlier in the video - 2 damaged cars ahead just outside that fence, one of them a bit to the north of the impact, the other a bit further to the south.

A partially readable splash pattern indicates trajectory largely east across this N-S street, but angling a bit to the south, so from the northwest. 

K Supreme Court Building (add Dec. 11)

https://twitter.com/Cosmonaut19/status/1600462696247619584

https://twitter.com/Cosmonaut19/status/1600462731903381504

"Artillery hits the north side of the Supreme Court in Donetsk. Donetsk Oblast.

Geolocation:  48.013164, 37.808721"

Just off Chelyuskintsiv st, a bit SE of impact B.

Afternoon video, citing Telegram post from afternoon of the 6th. 

"Fragments of a Ukrainian shell turned a passenger car into a sieve near the building of the Supreme Court of the DPR in Donetsk.

The shell also penetrated the wall of the courthouse.

In the center of the capital of the DPR, the Armed Forces of Ukraine hit today from the Grad MLRS."

The north side was impacted directly, so the shell came partly from north - visually, looks like from the left or northeast, but it could be from NW or due north. The passing car - apparently driving south - was hit all across the driver's side, surely wounding the driver. That can't tell us much, but it fits slightly better with a trajectory from the northeast, but depending, could fit with the other angles as well.

Tidbit: a justice of this Supreme Court, Alexander Nikulin, was shot November 5 in an assassination attempt, but survived. "Nikulin previously presided over the trial of three foreign fighters -- two men from Britain and one from Morroco -- sentenced to death for fighting for Ukraine. They were later released in a prisoner exchange in September." - UPI /

All Mapped & Considered

A Youth Center, MP   NW

B Chelyuskintsiv st. 1  NW

C Chelyuskintsiv st. 2  W or NW

D Donetsk City s.c.  NW 

E Pushkin Blvd.  NW

F Yellow s.c.?  unclear, poss. W-NW

G Orthodox church  NW or SE

H high-rise on Myru  NW, N, or NE

I 50-richchya SRSR St  SE, NE or E

J Chelyuskintsiv st. 3  NW

K Supreme Court  NE, N, or NW

If a U-turn rules out one side, then whose rockets are they?

Apparet direction # UA U-turn RU U-turn

NW or WNW 6 0 XXXXXX

some north (NW, N, NE) 2 0 XX

unclear, poss. W or NW 1 ? ?

NW OR SE 1 ? ?

SE, E or NE 1 X 0

total     11 1-3 8-10

1-3 projectiles "would have to turn 180 degrees in the air, which is impossible" or would have to be drones, most likely. And Ukraine would never shell its own people, even when they're Russia's people.

OR

8-10 projectiles "would have to turn 180 degrees in the air, which is impossible" or would have to be drones, most likely. Because Russia would always shell its own people, even when it serve's Ukraine's war aims.

Fill-in on the remaining incidents will be incomplete. Newer attacks might be covered in another post. 

Add Jan 1 2023 Telegram posts with more photos and details from the 6th, from mayor Aleksei Kulemzin: 

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11618?single

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11608

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11593

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11585

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11577

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11574

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11568

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11515

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11511

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11504

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11503

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11493

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11492

Dec 5 

funeral home hit https://twitter.com/Cosmonaut19/status/1599776782378741765

https://twitter.com/Cosmonaut19/status/1599776699759333376

Video: Funeral services office hit on Postysheva Street, Donetsk, Donetsk Oblast. Geolocation: 47.988894, 37.805807 

Cited: https://t.me/wargonzo/9604

Trajectory quite unclear - roofs blown off, fire burning away clues that I haven't seen before or after. Likely the same as other area impacts... 

Church of the nativity https://twitter.com/dana916/status/1599860171043655680 

Geolocated just a couple blocks away, from view of "Green Center" 

47.9908139,37.8019341

Not the church but an attached building. 

NW corner impacted from the NW or WNW.

A Funeral home and a church hit at once by weapons designed to end lives, here maybe trying to mar the afterlife as well - whoever that was the NW may have been sending a pretty grim message. 

crater next to trolley tracks, Voroshilovsky district https://twitter.com/ivan_8848/status/1599694668962201600

47.9912521,37.8066407 - view faces south

The trolley runs because the debris has been cleaned up, swept together. It probably spread greatest to the southeast originally, due to the arrival from the northwest.

Telegram posts with more photos and details from the 5th, from mayor Aleksei Kulemzin: 

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11456

church https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11428 - https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11380

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11419

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11397

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11388

Dec 4 

https://twitter.com/TyheLyho/status/1599421369875562497

Explosions at intersection of Schorsa street & Mayakovskogo avenue in Donetsk city.

47.9953, 37.8084

Video films explosion at 47.9987, 37.7956

Sources: https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1599397858641588224 (geolocation)

https://twitter.com/typicaldonetsk/status/1599400260240932864 (explosions)

'That's how the shell hit the house.' A resident of #Donetsk shows the result of the shelling by #Ukrainian artillery using 155 mm shells. On December 4th, several houses were damaged. There is information about four wounded #civilians. 

https://twitter.com/bkeithb/status/1601964547417554945

Telegram posts with more photos and details from the 4th, from mayor Aleksei Kulemzin: 

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11364

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11361

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11357

Dec. 3 ?

Telegram posts with more photos and details from the 3rd, from mayor Aleksei Kulemzin: 

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11298

2 December

2A) Woman killed on Universytetska St.

https://twitter.com/Cosmonaut19/status/1600133966610464768

Civilian casualties from artillery strike in Donetsk, Donetsk Oblast. 

Geolocation: 48.027879, 37.788061 - quite near Donestk City shopping center in Kyivsky district, on Universytetska street. At least one person - a woman - was killed in this strike.

https://t.me/donbassr/31073

https://twitter.com/rst_like/status/1598626243661946880

https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status/1598607678674153473

splash pattern from left when facing across the street means from up the street = NW

Fragmentation pattern angles up to the southeast. That says the same thing.

Trying to set just where the impact is compared to the damage, and estimating the trajectory - fired a bit counter-clockwise from up-the-street northwest.

That comes out pointing to Ukrainian-occupied Vodyane.

2B) Car ablaze at apartment block 

Evening attack: Graham Phillips video Ukainian Shelling Pounds Donetsk (filmed just now!!) - YouTube - This shows a twilight drive to incident scene - a wounded person who shed a lot of blood is loaded into an ambulance and driven away. A car riddled with shrapnel burns intensely as firefighters try to put it out. 

also https://t.me/izvestia/113948

Geolocation: 47.9964406,37.808599 = 117 Chelyuskintsiv St? (not clearly labeled) - a 10+-story residential building of some length.

Setting that was possible from the view away from the building, ESE as it happens, to the lit sign for "ГЕРМЕС" = "Hermes" - I could find it from that, but I happened to see it first in another video (to move: video from December 4, with coordinates for the seen intersection, not the distant impact - but the intersection cited is correct - at actual coordinates 47.9987468,37.7958123). From there it clicked, although the view it's seen from took a few minutes to set. 

Impact analysis: I can't see where the crater might be, but it will be not far out from the lowest frag marks on the wall, but further out than that car's back end. That's probably too close to possibly have come over the building from the east. The band of heaviest marks on the wall and tree are clear in angling up to the right. On this west-facing wall, that's south, so the shell came partly from the left, or north, and not at all from the south. I think the whole arc of heaviest marks appears, meaning it came in not just alongside the building but a bit into it, or somewhat from the northwest. I can't say the angle except it's decent, something closer to 45 degrees than to parallel or perpendicular. Therefore, just northwest.

2C) Moloko store

https://t.me/dnronline/86889

From the place of arrival at the Moloko supermarket (former Moskva grocery store). There is no military expediency! Inhumans are hitting the center of Donetsk, residential buildings and civilian infrastructure.

https://t.me/dnronline/86891

https://t.me/izvestia/113951

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11298

The Moskva label brings me to the spot with all the seen buildings, recognizable despite differences from 2011 street view: 47.9957187,37.8045975, in the south of Voroshilovsky. It's a north-facing wall on "25-richchya RSChA Ave" that was impacted. There's wide, superficial damage with little to suggest if it came from the left or right. Precedent supports left, but I can't add to precedent here. 

Others:

woman and dog killed, a home damaged. I don't suppose this can be geolocated. With the right images, maybe. With this much sun and a good view of the impact, a direction of fire might be established. But not right now.

https://t.me/dnronline/86869

https://t.me/izvestia/113920

an impact on security video https://t.me/izvestia/113917

Telegram posts with more photos and details from the 2nd, from mayor Aleksei Kulemzin: 

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11285 

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11278

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11261 (seems to relate to a Dec. 1 attack - see below)

1 December

"Donetsk is being targetted by presumably Ukrainian artillery. It is reported that in Kyiv District the Department of Internal Affairs is being hit." https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1598355064036401154

"Beautiful" https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1598449846826029081

Meanwhile...

1 December, 9:49 PM in Donetsk (I think): "1 employee of Donetsk Emergency Situations Ministry killed in Ukrainian shelling of Donetsk Republic"

Izvestia video: https://twitter.com/ivan_8848/status/1598388934098227200

Clearer copy: https://t.me/izvestia/113860 7:58 pm. 

(seems to be on duty = responding to an emergency (artillery strike?) when another strike killed him =  "double-tap" - terrorist stuff).

Add 1/2/23: Mayor Kulemzin on Telegram, next day: photos of the scene from the video that I couldn't find before. At least 2 rocket impacts at Vatutina Ave. and Universytets'ka St. Scene:

1A) Universytets'ka St.

1B) Vatutina Ave.

So that's two from the west-northwest.  

1C) City Administration

Also from the same post, images of another impact just shy of the main Donetsk City Administration building. Impact near the building's south end, from the NW or WNW.

Reports

https://t.me/dnronline/86782

Telegram posts with more photos and details from the 1st, from mayor Aleksei Kulemzin: 

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11244

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11243

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11231

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11222

https://t.me/kulemzin_donetsk/11212

11/30

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1598331203207176194

https://t.me/dnronline/86749

https://t.me/dnronline/86733

11/29 & late 11/28

https://twitter.com/Cosmonaut19/status/1597626893381275649

https://twitter.com/Cosmonaut19/status/1597625382618169347

Citing a video 11/28 9:49 pm https://t.me/nm_dnr/9482

Initial geolocation, or explaining of a scene that's pretty evident from the downed streets sign seen at the video's start saying Myru 31a 

Telegram post explains: "Ukrainian militants again hit the center of Donetsk.

For the second day, Ukrainian militants have been hitting the center of Donetsk, intimidating and killing civilians of the Republic. Twice a day on the border of three districts of Voroshilovsky, Kievsky and Kalininsky regions, Ukrainian rockets of the MLRS "GRAD" fall. Unfortunately, a young guy died at a gas station." 

Another video helps: https://t.me/dnronline/86634

Employees of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation examine the places of shelling in the center of Donetsk.

2+ impacts in this spot, and perhaps 2 directions of attack. The first hit the station's north corner on both the NW and (roughly) NE-facing sides. That's unusually north or even NNE origin than usually observed. There's a splash pattern shown in the video, but not in spatial context with anything else. The car the man was in carried part of the pattern - a line of oblique markse into the front and driver's side - hard to read or fit with the rest, even assuming the car was moved a bit. Altogether, not so clear.

Clearer yet is another impact at an inexact spot - just outside the station on Myru prospect, or maybe a bit east  - approximately at 48.0167941,37.8204431 from the unobstructed, even telescopic view of distant hills and a house far off across the water. The splash pattern is incomplete as if part of it went into a swerving car (probably not the same one we've seen). The rest is clear in coming in pretty much right down the street, or from the west-northwest. The impact point looks square, probably because it's got measuring tools blurred in with it. I bet these guys got about the reading I just did, but more precise. I'm sure they read the other one better.