December 4, 2022
The gears of justice never stop turning, but they sometimes turn in reverse. The United Kingdom's delegation to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) recently tweeted a reminder that "The UK will continue to work to hold Syria to account for its use of Chemical Weapons. Independent investigations by the @UN and/or @OPCW have established eight occasions on which the Syrian regime used chemical weapons, with more attacks being investigated" An attached plate gives eight incident locales and dates, with a lot of wasted space. All these were ruled chemical weapon attacks by the Syrian government against its own people. Some were said to employ sarin, some chlorine, and some were implausibly said to use both at once.
Aaron Maté understands the issues and had a good response: "Translation: the UK will continue to stonewall accountability for the OPCW’s Syria cover-up scandal, and use the OPCW to falsely accuse Syria and whitewash NATO-armed sectarian death squads."
My own alternate translation: The UK will continue to absolve Islamist proxies in Syria for their use of Chemical Weapons, instead punishing the Syrian government and the people relying on it ("holding Syria to account").
The touted "Independent investigation" by the OPCW into the Douma incident of 2018 were pressured by the United States to find for a chlorine attack (Counterpunch), for example, after the evidence for that had become an issue inside the organization. This & other controls might explain suppressed contrary findings for Douma (an engineering report discrediting an aerial attack was buried and replaced (see here), an expert toxicology assessment discrediting chlorine death claims was ignored and replaced (see here)). Such might also explain the OPCW, apparently, providing a grossly erred trajectory for Ghouta 2013 (30 degrees off, but pointing right to a Syrian army post, at a distance 5x the rocket's maximum range - see the author and associates on PushBack, via this GrayZone article.) The OPCW have generally dismissed Syrian reports of insurgent sarin attacks on their troops (e.g. Khan al-Assal, Jobar, Daraya - one example from Jobar) On many occasions they have quietly corrected insurgent disinformation in order to accept their claims (see some examples below).
The OPCW's first Director-General, Jose Bustani, has expressed concern over these apparent distortions. "serious questions are now being raised over whether the independence, impartiality, and professionalism of some of the Organisation’s work is being severely compromised, possibly under pressure from some Member States." (GrayZone) He was himself forced from office in 2002 under US pressure for complicating their drive for war on Iraq, reportedly involving veiled threats (by John Bolton) against his children. (Monibot 2002 - RT)
Against this backdrop, the OPCW & UN "have established eight occasions on which the Syrian regime used chemical weapons," And that's supposed to mean something about reality?
Over 300 chemical attacks have been alleged in Syria. The UK delegation mentioned "more attacks being investigated." The mentioned attacks in Ghouta & Douma are in the latter category. On these other 8, I made use of the wasted space in that graphic, added some more space, and used that too, to provide a brief overview of what it seems actually happened in each "confirmed" CW use by Damascus. Fuller explanations follow beneath.
Sources I have on-hand to explain are mainly my own dated blog posts, some from the ACLOS wiki I did a lot of, and the Working Group on Syria, Propaganda and Media I'm part of. Newer, maybe better findings are also around.
Issue notes ICI, ICSB, IM4, LAM come up frequently. Thay stand for: implausible chlorine immobilization, implausible chlorine-sarin bomb, implausible M4000 sarin bomb (alleged) and likely absolved murder. See explanations below.
21 April, 2014 - Talmenes
Two chlorine "barrel bombs" (harness-fitted) reportedly dropped by helicopter, with 3 killed at 2 sites. One alleged impact may have been poorly staged, per OPCW-consulted experts, with buried explosives (below: they said that crater was caused by a chlorine cylinder just hitting the ground), That reported attack site was discounted, while the other one was accepted as a Syrian military bombing. Syria says a rocket fired by oppo. forces to the south hit that house. Damage seems to be from a powerful blast coming from the south, not a gas cylinder impact. The cylinders, each deformed in some other fall, were probably added at both sites. Anomalies w/victim stories. and timelines, etc.
see: https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/12/talmenes-chemical-incident-21-april-2014.html
https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2019/08/4-21-2014-cw-incident-victim-questions.html
see also: https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2018/12/2014-chlorine-attacks-and-opcws-loss-of.html
OPCW arrives to investigate 2014 chlorine attacks in Hama/Idlib area, is given info on local makers of chlorine "bombs" in these attacks, but militants arrested the OPCW team and sent them back. The OPCW never tried a site visit again until 2018. For years they let the locals arrange sample collection. Strange things ensue.
16 March, 2015 - Qmenas and 16 March, 2015 - Sarmin
2 binary chlorine barrel bombs (elements inside combine on impact), 3 deaths. Diagram circulated at the time in an OPCW report (PDF). R22 refrigerant canisters are implausibly re-filled with hydrochloric acid (after given a plastic coating inside?) and mixed with dry potassium permanganate.
This bizarre alleged bomb was said to fall exactly down an air vent its own size, filling a basement apartment with magenta liquid and chlorine gas that killed a family of 6 (ICI). 3 children seen w/no signs of chlorine exposure, instead appearing overdosed with a CNS depressant and left comatose. The youngest child is still breathing, w/no assistance, until the doctor stabs him in the chest with a syringe and twirls it around without injecting anything. murdering the boy on camera (LAM). Early appearance of "White Helmets" releasing "rescue" and "clinic" videos jointly with Al-Nusra Front.
see http://www.acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Alleged_Chemical_Attack,_March_16,_2015
https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2015/04/what-killed-talebs.html
https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2020/02/on-codastorys-attempt-to-discedit-swedhr.html
https://twitter.com/search?q=Taleb%20(from%3AMichaKobs)&src=typed_query&f=live
24 March, 2017 - Ltamnah
sarin bomb attack (M4000) - no deaths.
This was the first supp. sarin attack since 2013, but no one mentioned it at the time, & some effectively denied it (see 30 March), strongly suggesting it never happened. The attack may have been invented to explain sarin traces that turned up after the next-day chlorine attack. But sarin breakdown products and active sarin were found on samples OPCW only received 313 days after the incident (19 Feb. 2018), and had analyzed after a further delay. That's implausibly late, unless the sarin was added just before the handover. One bomb fragment was finally produced, a M4000 scrap previously shown as part of the 30 March attack (see below: the fragment shown from 3 views at lower right is the one that got re-assigned). The 2-bomb pattern is same as for 30/3 attack, just shifted a bit south. Symptom reports also suggest borrowed story details from 30/3: each attack produced a set of exactly 16 agitated, drooling sarin patients with pinpoint pupils who both lacked other symptoms, and varied just in reported effects on the airway.
https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2019/11/sneaking-in-sarin-allegations-24-march.html
https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-opcws-iit-issues-its-first-report.html
25 March, 2017 - Ltamnah
chlorine cylinder by helicopter (or sarin-chlorine), 3 killed - 4 chlorine cylinders said dropped w/one penetrating an underground clinic, killing a surgeon, his patient, & a militant commander/first responder. Sarin was also reported & traces found, later explained by patients from the day before treated at the clinic (patients from the attack well to the south, were brought here and washed off roughly at impact site 2 - allegedly hit by a chlorine cylinder (not shown) the following day - allegedly to erase the signs? Because they know about that "nullifying effect"? (see issue note ICSB).
see https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2019/11/more-on-alleged-chlorine-attack-of-25.html
30 March, 2017 - Ltamnah
sarin bomb attack by jet (M4000) or helicopter-chlorine-sarin (both were reported, with the former prevailing). 85-169 affected, 1 woman, 168 males, incl. 12 farmers, prob. 176 militants. No deaths.
Said the 1st sarin attack locals had seen (so none on the 24th.) Well-documented scene. Possible sarin release (black splash - see here), but recognizable bomb fragments on site may be planted - they seem shredded by HE blast that would have destroyed any sarin. Identified as M4000, used by the Syrian army filled with conventional explosives.
https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2019/10/opposition-access-to-syrian-cw-bomb.html
4 April, 2017 - Khan Shaykhun
sarin bomb attack by jet (M4000) - nearly 100 killed
Nearest jets on radar reportedly ~5km out, too far away to carry out the strike (OPCW FFM: "the closest to Khan Shaykhun that the aircraft had flown had been approximately 5 km away."). Some blasts occurred, apparently fuel-air explosives, with some indicators that was cause by rockets fired from the north. The sarin "bomb" that landed on the highway was apparently another rocket from the north, but with a black splash instead of an explosive crater. This impact vs. where people died when the wind carried the sarin SW into their homes was made unusually clear. However, the wind observed on video is to the northeast - exactly opposite of in the many lodged stories (someone confused blowing from with blowing to or vice-versa). OPCW helped erase the problem by deciding (contrary to video) that there was no wind and topography drove the spread, but to illustrate that, they had to show it modeled with the sarin released from a different spot.
A widely-told false story leaves ~100 deaths unexplained. Those we see display little sign of sarin exposure (cyanosis, SLUDGE syndrome) and aren't seen where they fell, which could be some gas chambers for all we can say. The victims might include primarily Shi'ite civilians kidnapped from the area in recent high-profile raids or even earlier. Lodged victim stories, even with social media support, are just a few, and could still be false or extremely incomplete. A leading story is especially troubling: Abdelhamid al-Yousef's story of family loss and rescue efforts is full of holes and bad acting. It turns out he's an unacknowledged militant sniper, liable to help his team explain away any mass murder of people he might have helped kidnap.
At least 2 children seen alive are later seen dead with serious head injuries added. Others young children have serious head and face wounds from the first view. An older boy seems to have a bruised cheek and might have a serious but unseen neck wound that keeps leaking blood.
https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2017/04/idlib-cw-massacre-4-4-17-masterlist.html
http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2017/07/idlib-chemical-massacre-4-4-17-wind.html
http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2017/04/abdelhamid-al-yousef-proof-man.html
http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2017/07/two-smoking-gun-head-wounds.html
4 February, 2018 - Saraqib
chlorine-sarin bomb attack by helicopter - no deaths. One victim displays a strong, drugged disorientation not associated with chlorine or sarin. Bleaches grass suggests spread away from their given location. Affected "civilians" Were all fighting-age men, at least 2 of whom wore camouflage, and most of whom seem related. The only local civilian witness heard from seems to be another relative.
In this alleged attack, the chlorine would tend to neutralize the sarin (see below: ICSB), so OPCW decided on a simple chlorine attack, with sarin traces and exclusive reported symptoms (miosis, etc.) deemed coincidental and not explained.
See: https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-nonsense-gassing-of-militants-in.html
https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2021/04/two-toxicologists-on-saraqib-symptoms.html
Conclusion:
Over and over, the best evidence available indicates foreign-backed insurgents and their allies lodged false narratives to the OPCW. The trusted watchdogs seemingly responded by variously correcting then accepting the faalse claims, or accepting them as given. E.g. in Talmenes, a staged impact is dismissed quietly while other dubious claims from the same fakers are accepted. Islamist opposition or allies of theirs handled sample collection for all 8 cases here, after the OPCW's one effort to do it right led to militants attacking their team with a roadside bomb, then arresting them. With this trust, encouraged by the UK and other supportive states, militant-linked inspectors (White Helmets, etc.) routinely turned in samples that raise questions or even defy the known science, but this was routinely glossed over.
Between these 8 incidents, there were some 90-100 deaths at Khan Shaykhun and at least twelve others that remain unexplained. Some are evident murders, and others are likely the same. Only a fresh, balanced review of the evidence could allow for some kind of official justice. But this has so far not been permitted, presumably because the US, UK et al. would rather maintain false pretexts to punish Syria, strangle its economy, occupy its territory, and loot its resources.
That's not even going into Douma 2018 (ICI, ICSB, LAM, 43-187 killed), Ghouta 2013 (LAM, several hundred to 1,000+ killed, blamed rockets fired by insurgents claiming it's August 21 (the night of the attack), on videos geolocated to the ballistically deduced rocket firing spot - again, see here), or Khan al-Assal 2013 (locally-made insurgent rocket filled with impure "cottage industry" sarin - apparently the same used in Ghouta, Khan Shaykhoun, other attacks - ~20 killed including Syrian troops, Shi'ite civilians, and a treating doctor - see here). There is SO MUCH to say in those cases about UK-approved "confirmation" vs. actual reality.
Issue Notes
ICI = implausible chlorine immobilization - the science & literature and general balance of incident reports worldwide over the decades says NO, chlorine does not normally make people pass out, lay there and die. They usually flee the scene and seek help, and most of them survive. The kind of severe exposure that cause exceptions to that rule are usually not evident in the incidents under question (ie the victims rarely even have reddened eyes, suggesting little or no exposure). https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2017/02/does-chlorine-make-you-pass-out.html
About the same was said to the OPCW FFM by top NATO toxicologists (app. in Germany), in some of the good advice the investigation would up shelving. It was replaced with some more vague opinions less harmful to the absurd narrative handed in by the scientifically illiterate insurgents. https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2019/12/douma-toxicology-erasing-and-replacing.html
ICSB = implausible chlorine-sarin bomb. The chlorine would tend to break the sarin down quickly, making combined use useless, aside from questions of HOW the two could be combined in a single weapon. A 2018 OPCW report finally notes "the nullifying effects of mixing sarin and chlorine" but make no big issue of how that was alleged anyway, over and over, from 2014 to 2018. https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/2021/04/s-1943-2021%28e%29.pdf
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M4 = implausible M400 binary sarin bomb alleged - no evidence Syria ever used them for sarin, although that was the idea. They have used some as regular bombs filled with high explosives - opposition has intact copies, and most scraps seen appear severely fragmented and twisted by HE blasts that would have destroyed any sarin snuck in there. https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2019/10/opposition-access-to-syrian-cw-bomb.html
LAM = likely absolved murder - given liberally to every case with reported deaths. Some are essentially proven murder (Sarmin, Khan Shaykhun), while others are just "likely" on balance (ranging from compelling evidence to almost no evidence either way).
See also (general)
https://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2019/11/re-considering-iits-nine-unsolved-cw.html
https://syriapropagandamedia.org/working-papers/briefing-note-the-alleged-chemical-attack-in-douma-on-7-april-2018-and-other-alleged-chlorine-attacks-in-syria-since-2014
https://libertarianinstitute.org/articles/sarin-doesnt-slice-throats-the-2013-ghouta-massacre-revisited/
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