(rough, incomplete)
February predictions
I was recently alerted to an interesting report (props to Qoppa 999):
https://syriaaccountability.org/library/walls-have-ears/
Walls Have Ears: An Analysis of Classified Syrian Security Sector Documents" a report by Syria Justice and Accountability Centre, Published April 2019 in Washington, DC. A critical review post is pending, but one cited file ignited some old tinder I've been sitting on. The fire couldn't be contained, and had to be penned into this new post.
Said file is rather old, dated 2 February, 2012 - from Director of the National Security Office to "Comrade Director of the Air Force Intelligence Division." Approved, stamped, and circulated over the following days (Feb. 4-8), the memo is shown below and says (per the provided translation):
"We received information stating that the Libyan terrorists have acquired chemical weapons from the Libyan chemical arsenal.
The weapons will be shipped to Turkish territories to be used later in some Syrian governorates, especially the ones that are
facing unrest. This will be done in order to accuse the regime, in coordination with biased television channels, of using the
chemical weapons, in order to escalate the Syrian crisis and internationalize it after all the failed attempts to move the Syrian
crisis dossier to the Security Council.
Please review and do the necessary *
And long live our message
* Elsewhere, SJAC takes this phrase as likely meaning assassinate someone. In this case, probably not. Maybe it carries that secret meaning in no case.
But as far as most people know, there were no regime chemical attacks alleged at this time, nor in the following months, either to match a prediction or to prove some basis for planning a cover-story. Behind the scenes, it's worried they'll be used "later" and even at this blog, I tend to start noting CW allegations much later - only in November and December of 2012.
And so far I haven't tended to consider Libya's stockpiles. The sarin used in many incidents was more likely custom-made by or for Jabhat al-Nusra and their select allies. But that's not some firm law of nature, and even if its mainly true most of the time, this early on, different sources might be called on.
But whatever the source, there was some unexplained concern about the issue from probably the same week as this memo, but well outside the official channels producing it. Paul Wood noted in The Guardian, February 11, 2012 following on a recent visit to Baba Amr district of Homs. Then under siege but weeks from full military reconquest, Baba Amr was the opposition's top issue and prime focus for employing propaganda claims of this sort - the natural place for "Assad" to unleash any strange chemical nonsense:
"Baba Amr had been under siege for months. Jedi snapped on the third day after hundreds of shells, mortars and rockets had fallen. He walked back and forth shouting: "The army is about to use chemical weapons. They're already sending in ground troops." Neither was true. Under the constant shelling, people were becoming hysterical." (emphasis mine)Wood considered this to be "hysteria," not a reflection anyone's real plans or concerns. But the article also noted how "State television denied there was a bombardment. It told the inventive lie that residents were setting fire to rubbish on their roofs to give the impression of an attack. The official media also said that most of the violence was caused by the rebel fighters of the Free Syrian Army – "terrorists", "criminal gangs" or "agents of Israel" in the language of official spokesmen.
This could refer exactly to Danny Abdul Dayem, who worked with the armed fighters, coordinated fake videos with them, and called for foreign, specifically Israeli, military intervention, notably over the government offensive in Baba Amr in February. He was famously caught out on this, though to be fair, I'm not sure of the date of the incidents or their revelation; less than a month after this Guardian article the story was out, with Dayem even challenged on-air by a peeved Anderson Cooper at CNN. Likely the Syrian authorities referred to him, as well as less-famous others engaged in the same kind of activities. That's some "lie" to invent its way to being true like that.
So Mr. Wood didn't know everything, including whether there was or wasn't reason to expect chemical weapons usage, in Baba Amr, in the first half of February, 2012. And as it happens...
February chemical attack(s)?
… there was an allegation around this time, or a string of them - sooner than the memo suggests and perhaps unrelated, but perhaps not. I've sort of glossed this over as too vague and isolated to consider, but I had seen it listed in a 2013 report assembled by professor Julian Perry Robinson - an excellent resource, with this early incident I didn't know about
ALLEGED USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS IN SYRIA, a Harvard Sussex Program Occasional Paper by Julian Perry Robinson, June, 2013
http://www.sussex.ac.uk/Units/spru/hsp/occasional%20papers/HSPOP_4.pdf
Incident [L2] February 2012, Homs (Bab Amr): Use by the regime . On 21 February 2012, Istanbul Hürriyet Daily News reports having just been told by Lt Abdulselam Abdulrezzak, “who used to work in the chemical weapons department in the Syrian army and defected to Turkey last week”, that “chemical weapons were used against civilians during the military offensive of the Syrian security forces in Bab Amr [a neighbourhood in Homs]”. … The newspaper also reports him as saying that “Syrian soldiers were given gas masks recently in order to protect themselves from the chemical weapons that would be used against the protestors in Syria”.
The cited Hürriyet article is still available but adds little to Robinson's citation. The date of any incident seems unclear - just then, the 21st? Abdulrazaq was interviewed on 19 February (per Robinson), after defecting shortly before that. Is it something he learned of before or after this? It should be before if he ran away in disgust over the event and another one planned; besides CW use in Homs, "They wanted to also use it in Zabadani [on the Lebanese border] but they made an agreement with the Free Syrian Army forces at the last minute and they backtracked. I couldn’t stand all these and ran away."
An earlier Jerusalem World News article cites al-Arabiya interview on or before Feb. 14 (image source), where he claims a nerve agent, likely sarin, has already been used somewhere in Homs, was threatened or planned in Zabadani too, so he seemingly refers to the same incident(s) in Homs, which happened prior to Feb. 14, at a time the Guardian's Paul Wood felt the claims were not true.
Military actions in Baba Amr (Baba, Amro, etc. - in red on district map below) were alleged and actually happened all during February, with Government control announced at month's end. A sizeable and maybe final militant retreat south to Abel to discover a sizable massacre there (just before their arrival, they say) on Feb. 27. (just off the bottom edge of the map)
The agent(s) and effects
On the 14th, Abdulrazaq was cited as claiming deadly nerve agent like sarin was used in Homs. It's Israeli experts who decided he meant sarin, but he did say "“A little amount of this is enough to carry out a mass extermination."
https://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/02/14/194585.html
Cited interview, also says "nerve agent," also planned for Jabal Zawiya and Zabadani - sounds like the same story about CWs in Homs. Initially, a very deadly nerve agent was used. But no mention of deaths... also no specifics on dates of use, symptoms suffered by how many, etc. Terrible, but vague.
But on the 21st he told Hürriyet Daily News the toxin employed in Baba Amr was, rather, “BZ-CS, Chlorine Benzilate, which damages people’s nerves and makes them fade away." The reference is a little confusing, but Julian Perry Robinson adds: "Chemically, BZ is 3-quinuclidinyl benzilate and CS is o -chlorobenzalmalononitrile, so it is not obvious why ‘BZ-CS’ should have been glossed as ‘Chlorine Benzilate’. Nor is it obvious that either agent would have brought about the signs and symptoms described." He also notes it's the first time BZ has been mentioned as part of Syria's CW capabilities. Is it something the Libyans had?
This "BZ-CS" apparently refers to two agents in combination: the incapacitating agent BZ and the common irritant tear gas CS, and shouldn't have a combined singular name like he gave. These symptoms combined might be similar to that described, but as Robinson notes, not an "obvious" match, especially for the strangely delayed onset of signs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3-Quinuclidinyl_benzilate
Effects: the following may occur from inhibition of central muscarinic receptors: disorientation, agitation, tremor, ataxia, stupor, coma, hallucinations and seizures. Other effects on the nervous system inhibit glandular secretions and sweating, causing hyperthermia, flushing, dry mouth. Vision problems, tachypnea, nausea and vomiting, paralytic ileus (intestinal), and urinary retention may also occur.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CS_gas
Effects: "The chemical reacts with moisture on the skin and in the eyes, causing a burning sensation and the immediate forceful and uncontrollable shutting of the eyes. Effects usually include tears streaming from the eyes, profuse coughing, exceptional nasal discharge that is full of mucus, burning in the eyes, eyelids, nose and throat areas, disorientation, dizziness and restricted breathing."
later sources add to the picture, but complicate the timeline.
https://rosealhomsi.wordpress.com/2012/03/29/chemical-weapons-in-baba-am/
Documentation of injuries possibly caused by the use of chemical weapons on civilians during the attack and siege of Baba Amr, Homs. March 29, 2012 · by rosealhomsi
During the last 2 weeks, the hospitals in northern Lebanon have received and analysed several injuries, injuries on those who fled the neighborhood of “Baba Amr” in the city of Homs. The injuries were caused during the brutal crackdown and siege led by the Assad regime prior to the regime forces storming on land. The injuries and illnesses only deteriorated..."
This describes symptoms including: "neuropathy, arthralgia, joint pains, amnesia, skin rashes, hair loss and abdominal pain" - "a raise in temperature and night sweats" - irritation, boils on the face, mouth ulcers and, strangely, hair loss from the head and body, besides constipation and urinary retention. The signs had a slow onset, only noted "3 or 4 days" after leaving Baba Amr, perhaps longer since alleged exposure.
As noted militants left and attacks should have ended before March 1 - chemical incidents blamed were "prior to the regime forces storming on land," so more likely back in mid-February. But these cases of alleged poisoning linked to that campaign were reported only from mid to late March and into April.
Robinson:
A video said to have been filmed at a hospital in Homs on 6 April 2012 and distributed by networks supporting the Syrian opposition shows a doctor displaying a video of a patient and denouncing “the use of chemical or biological weapons against the civilian population of Baba Amro, a neighbourhood which has remained for months in rebel hands, and so was heavily bombed by the Syrian army”.
"tiredness and fatigue accompanied with muscle pains across the body. The patient felt weak especially in the lower part of the body, as well as joint pain, pain around the joints and pain in the lower back."
"the symptoms began to appear at the same time as the Assad regime attack on the named neighborhood, Baba Amr." So presumably the mean during February. from Facebook, content unavailable - a 2-page Arabic document is shared here, presumably relating the same details as below. It's from "Syrian Refuggees Coordination" and also dated March 29. https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.414955381863454.118487.241475429211451&type=1
also shown - chapped, bandaged, yellow hands with dark patches - a man with pixelated face, oddly yellow skin visible at the forehead and ears, very thin hair fallig out over his pillow - a woman with sporadic red irritation of the cheek, burned and peeling lips. Still, any clear pattern of correlation is far from obvious.
Fatalities?
Robinson: "The doctor refers to twelve cases, including two people who died..." prior to April 6.
No clearly reported deaths at VDC, but... Thamer Mohammed al-Saud, from Guerran Hasakeh killed somewhere by "other" (no toxic gas category at this point) with the notes: "He was suffocated by tear gas "
Maybe coincidence with Mr. Saud, but a Saudi - Ayman Hweti - died 3 days later. A non-civilian, he was tasked with whatever by his group, Al-Qaeda franchise Jabhat al-Nusra (well prior to its future ISIS members peeling away), until he unusually died from "other" on the 23rd, with no explanation.
- Salman Abdul Qader Othman, age 27, from Turkman Bareh, Aleppo, killed 2012-02-25 by other: "He died in hospital affected by the gas which he suffered two weeks before during his participation in a demonstration in Salahidin district." That would be around Feb. 11, but up in Aleppo, not in Homs, where folks like Jedi were fearing such use in those same days. And they heard it literally took two weeks before Mr. Othman died instead of recovering. That can happen, depending on circumstances, but it seems strange.
I looked into dates through March and April, but nothing more compelling than these three emerged by way of deaths recorded.
In context (Somewhat disorganized patterns and speculation)
Again, this event or cluster of events and vague allegations seem disconnected from the mainstream of them starting late in 2012 and running up to the Ghouta massacre in August, 2013. Julian Perry Robisnon 's report agrees, has the one entry only for early 2012, as [L2] - following [L1] about CW allegations against Hafez Assad way back in 1982, and events resume only with [L3] in Homs, December 23.
My further research has prior events, all in the Damascus-Ghouta region, on Dec. 22 and Dec. 6, following on three quieter events in November, and claims - from defector Abdulrazaq - that CWs "were tested in eastern Aleppo with the assistance of Iranians" in late October or early November. This was preceded by propaganda activity including the founding, in Turkey, of an "office for documenting the chemical file in Syria" in October (now CDCVS), warnings from pre-White Helmets "civil defense" in Douma of impending CW use (mid-Sept. - 2 months before first reported use right by Douma) - some expressed concerns over Syria's CW arsenal sparking president Obama's Red Line threat/offer, first stated on August 20, and again on December 3. Further, "on August 29, a Syrian channel stated that it learned of a plot involving Saudi Arabia, the Al-Arabiya media outlet, the U.S. and (then-government of) Yemen that involved rebels using mortars to carry out a chemical attack." (Clarion Project)
But from August-December was a time of build-up, but from here back to around March is a bag gap of little to no alleged chemical usage by the Syrian government. This was the span of marketing the sectarian mega-massacre narrative - broadly Houla to Haswiyeh (Homs), massacres from March up to in January, 2013 described an arc from horrified acceptance to growing skepticism and concerns that maybe it was actually Sunni terrorists hacking up Syria's families.
So who was it putting a pause on their chemical weapons narrative in order to focus on this other big project? They resumed from December to March, 2013 as the massacres narrative stopped bearing fruit. They were on to things "only the regime" could pull off. There was a scud missiles phase in there too.
When attacks resume, mixed-unclear methods, then BZ or similar would be one theory for one set of symptoms reported in December, again in Homs city - 7 men reportedly died. My analysis here explains how both BZ-type symptoms were cited, as well as sarin signs. Reports clashed: pupils were both dilated and constricted, patients responded well or adversely to atropine. Similar confusion to Capt. Abdulrazaq above claiming one or the other or noth were used earlier in Homs. In December, it sounds like the effects were immediate, as they should be for an incapacitant, an irritant used to disperse crowds now, or clearly for a nerve agent that operates in micro-seconds. Unlike the earlier BZ-CS-GB incident(s), the signs werenot delayed by 3-4 days or a few weeks. smoke grenades were blamed - no images, but possibly the same modified tear gas grenades used by Jabhat al-Nusra for sarin attacks in April, 2013.
Also note: in between, back in Libya where the seized chemicals may have originated, in October, 2012: reported chemical attacks by "revolutionaries" against holdouts in Bani Walid - a doctor who was soon reported killed first helped break this story, reporting symptoms including: difficulty breathing, secretions from the mouth, muscle spasms, and blurred vision.
