Assessing HRW's Latest Chlorine Report

Syria Chlorine Allegations: Assessing HRW's Latest Syria Chlorine Report
Adam Larson aka Caustic Logic
February 16-18, 2017
last edits Feb. 20

Note: a rough post, to get in there while people are still paying attention, now fairly complete, but may be added to.

On February 13, Human Rights Watch (HRW) issued a new report alleging the Syrian government used chlorine gas against civilians during its re-conquest of eastern Aleppo in November and December last year. "Syria: Coordinated Chemical Attacks on Aleppo" urges in a by-line: "Security Council Should Impose Sanctions." This has been done a lot already, and just seems to encourage "Assad" to keep doing it more. But oh well ...

Villains that they are, Syria and Russia both deny the allegations, calling them fictions spun by the Islamist, interventionist "opposition" to scuttle upcoming negotiations and keep regime change as everyone's goal. (Reuters) There's much logic to that, and precedent for it. But they don't seem to have the specifics to explain the evidence, meager though it is, or to counter the charges like we'll try to do here.

HRW is of course notoriously biassed in against governments that the United States has been trying to overthrow. Their reliability as judges of fact vs. fiction is dubious in such cases, which obviously includes Syria. I'll skip a fluff re-explanation of that here (but see as needed Alternet: Nobel Peace Laureates Slam Human Rights Watch's Refusal to Cut Ties to U.S. Government), and get right to testing it by the specifics at hand.

The report notes how the eight "confirmed" attacks on rebel-held areas (out of more alleged) preceded government advances in that district. HRW's Ole Solvang is quoted saying this suggests the attacks "were coordinated with the overall military strategy for retaking Aleppo, not the work of a few rogue elements.” 

However, it's not explained and not at all clear just what purpose these alleged gas attacks would serve in that strategy. Collectively they got 8 dead civilians, and no rebels affected, or apparently aimed at. Aleppo was cleared of the "terrorists" by cutting supply lines, enforcing embargoes, standard fighting and negotiated surrenders. It was not at all due to some random chlorine plumes. Their interactive map shows a reported chlorine drop in a district, and then a few days later the government takes that over, as they were doing across the whole area, with predictable directions. To me, the sequence HRW is more consistent with Rebel false-flaggers about to flee their districts, anticipating government moves and coordinating their claims - but guessing too soon in most cases.

Further, chlorine gas has little reasonable use, to kill or otherwise. In some combat situations, it can be used to deadly effect, if the gas can be concentrated, the victims are pinned in by gunfire, or so much is used the cloud is huge and inescapable (some cases are mentioned below). In a gas chamber, it could be a sure and horrible death, but a slow one. But just fired into a city from a distance, in a couple of rockets giving off limited plumes, is not likely to do much to anyone. 

Chlorine is very common and easy to fake. But surely that's not why "Assad" is using it... It must be because by now, there's a strong record of acceptance that the Syrian government drops chlorine on people. They do it routinely, it's accepted, since mid-2014, with a number of improvised methods and always aiming for civilians. HRW brags that they alone have "published reports on the Syrian government’s use of chlorine in May 2014, April 2015, June 2015, and September 2016," all reaching similar conclusions to this fifth installment. The logic of it doesn't seem to matter - HRW knows a war crime, and this is a deadly friggin' gas. This is like WWII Nazi stuff, totally banned, and people need to be held to account.

1) Said vs. Seen (and heard)

The report states:

Identifying with certainty the chemical used in the attacks without laboratory testing is difficult, but the odor, signs, and symptoms that victims and medical personnel reported indicate that government forces used chlorine.

Words were reported to them. They cite people describing a smell like cleaning products, as if that proves they really smelled chlorine, and they couldn't make it up or be coached to say that. But anyway, there was some real chlorine, in at least one case, so maybe they did smell it. But how was it delivered, and by whom?

Over and over witnesses describe in detail seeing the helicopter, seeing objects falling, knowing where they landed and seeing how they didn't explode. But as usual, no one was able to put a camera lens between his eyes and that event - no one was able to provide video of these objects falling from the helicopters in any of the cases.

HRW considered 8 cases here, and the best they got is a video by Aleppo Media Center from November 20 22, This shows a helicopter above (no sound - it's very high), then a cut - to a different day for all we know. And there's the green gas cloud appearing as seen here, as the cameraman says Allahu Akbar (supposedly in horror, like "oh my god").

The actual drop of a munition isn't shown. That makes zero for eight. Maybe he got bored before that and stopped filming, or the long fall was deemed boring later and edited out. We're to presume the scenes really do go together, but they might not.

There is an audio clue here - a faint whoosh, and a light explosion sound, from a distance, right after the cut. It could be a falling gas tank, maybe, if it had fins and got going fast... but it sounds more like a driven rocket to me, but maybe a light one. The quick cut suggests the duration was short - maybe too short to be from such a long drop. The bang doesn't sound much like the non-explosion most cite. (I'm not an expert, but I'll ask around...)

"In two attacks, journalists nearby captured the smoke on video," the report notes, adding that "Chlorine is yellowish-green in its gaseous form." Throughout the report, alleged witnesses describe chlorine exposure symptoms somewhat accurately, either because they saw them or just know what to say. They describe that color, the smell (akin to chlorine bleach), and the heavier-than-air quality, sinking into basements. This is accurate enough. But the visuals that should serve as proof are half-wrong. 

1.1) November 22: A Bogus Scene

HRW's headlining image is this still from the Aleppo Media Center video linked above. It looks like colored smoke, rising high and drifting on a gentle breeze, with no sign of falling back down, This was noted by Charles Shoebridge and readers on Twitter. Chlorine wouldn't do this. It could be blasted high, but would drift back down, and wouldn't wisp around on the breeze so easily.

As noted by Shoebridge et al., the color is also suspect, a bit too rich of a green hue. It seems debatable in the Aleppo Media Center video, but this appears a bit red-tinted. At right is a comparison of that, on the left, and adjusted on the right. By this, it seems not yellow enough, not pale enough - and of course not heavy enough - to be chlorine. This is some kind of green-colored special effects smoke, not any chemical weapon.

That's not to say there was no chlorine, but ...  A family of six reportedly died earlier this day, every one of them, in another chlorine incident nearby that didn't get filmed. (It happened around midnight). This plume video is from hours later, in the afternoon. It's supposed to help clarify this is a chlorine day, and that's why a family just died. But instead, it shows people trying to make it look like that, which is actually suspicious, (oops: this is from November 22, the family died November 20. It's not quite that suspicious)

1.2) December 8: Some Real Chlorine, at least

Another video showing chlorine gas, of two cited by HRW, by On the Ground News (Bilal Abdul Kareem) has similar audio. No helicopter is heard (again, perhaps it was too high). But there's a loud roar, almost like a passing jet, or an incoming rocket, capped with what sounds like a fairly heavy boom in the mid-distance. 

Someone on screen knows "he's dumping chlorine!" almost as soon as that thud is heard. Peeking around the corner a few seconds later, there's the green cloud, creeping along the ground. This is how chlorine behaves, and the color seems correct - pale yellow-green. It might be originating closer than that impact happened, and already creeping before that. This slow-creeping field of the stuff goes back meters, and has been rolling for a little while. And the blast sounds distant. Coordinated?

They're saying "no one should breathe" "go up on the roof." But it's only heavy an inch or so up, and has only mild effect a few feet higher and a few feet back. The effect is likely real, but only so strong. Note how they respond: No one faints, and after documenting it, they get away from the gas. Not everyone does that, reportedly. Some people inside houses filled with the stuff allegedly sit there and die. (see below). There was that family of six on November 20, and it's said two people died from chlorine in eastern Aleppo on Decembe 8, as this better plume was witnessed. (it's said they died from a different plume in another district, however, maybe at a different time).

The OGN video appears to show the real deal, chlorine gas hugging the ground like it should. But how it was delivered, with that whooshing noise, deserves more careful study.

1.3) The Yellow Tanks

There have been several types of alleged chlorine bombs used since 2014, starting with gas cylinders, graduating in 2015 to barrel bombs, where chlorine precursors are mixed inside upon impact (which is very unlikely, by the way - the impact and/or explosion would disrupt the mixing and produce no gas). Cylinders inside barrel bombs and other types have been dropped in front of rebel cameras in between and since.

This conquest-coordinated series of attacks is a special sub-set, unified by the use of a special and well-documented canister, when any kind is identified (five of the 8 cases). "In all five incidents, the footage shows the same type of yellow gas cylinder." One of those is shown here, from an AMC photo cited in the report, damaged supposedly by its fall from a helicopter. I haven't noticed this exact kind used, but I haven't followed it 100% (2014's were similar at least). We see no engines, nor even fins attached. They don't seem very heavy. Would these make that whooshing sound? And would this bending metal cause those booms we heard on video? I don't think chlorine gas is explosive...(update 2-18: CDC lists numerous explosion hazards with chlorine - ruptured cylinders can even "rocket," but reactivity is rated at 0, so...???)

By size and shape, these seem like these 44-liter cylinders and painted the standard color for chlorine. "A label still visible on the remnant from one attack shows a warning that the cylinder contained gas." A label that remains partly covered in mud, has Roman and Arabic lettering, as posted on Facebook by Lebanese Zaman al-Wasl. The company is apparently based in Jordan, making chemicals for civilian use, not weaponry. This might have been imported earlier, or smuggled in. Zaman al-Wasl asked the manager how "the company's weapons" (products) came to be "in the hands of bashar al-Assad's regime." (from auto-translate). A response might be forthcoming.(links, etc...)

In Syria, chlorine was also made at the Syria-Saudi Chemical Company (SYSACCO)..., in al-Safirah, Aleppo. I hear it's Syria's only chlorine production facility. Rebels seized the plant in the summer of 2012, and Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra seized it from them around December 6. It had some 400 giant one-ton barrels, destined for water treatment plants across the country, and painted the same golden-yellow. The terrorists took video of the place. I tried to get the barrels all in one panoramic view, but had to leave it at this majority view. (Monitor)

They had plenty of time to re-bottle and relocate and perhaps produce fresh stuff during their long tenure as de facto managers there. (It's been back in government hands now for some time). Also, someone had some chlorine, or empty tanks anyway, from a Jordanian company. We don't know what this means.

Also, the regime allegedly has lots of chlorine, runs the SYSACCo plant now (if it functions, unclear), and drops it from helicopters. No one knows why, but it's criminal.

Pending proof these tanks fell from a helicopter, or that they didn't (I haven't seen it yet), let's get back to the Islamist opposition's narrative, and a major problem with it no one has noticed so far.

2) The Dead Make Little Sense

2.1) No, Chlorine Doesn't Make You Pass Out
Relevant fact: chlorine does not cause unconsciousness, nor paralysis, nor even confusion or sleepiness. It's effect is mostly mechanical; it turns to hydrochloric acid on contact with water or wet tissues. It causes red, irritated eyes, perhaps skin irritation, lung damage, severe coughing, possible nausea, headache, and later on in severe cases, cyanosis (a blue color shift in the blood and skin, especially in the lips).

From the inside, the patient feels burning eyes, severe coughing and - most pressingly - an acute pain in the chest, with tightness and labored breathing, causing agitation or even panic, and a strong desire to get the hell away from this gas.Dizziness can occur, and sometimes an odd weakness in the legs tempts the victim to lie down. But they remain alert and aware of the need to get away. If you doubt this, go look it up. Most good sources relate to World War I, but the molecules are still the same.

Update 2-18: This does deserve more explaining, besides double-checking: I'm doing research now, and will post a piece soon, with a link added here. Update 2-20: that explanation, for the doubtful.

Most choose to move out of the gas at first chance, are able to, and wind up surviving just fine after a rough spell. People can die from chlorine if they're trapped somehow - like in World War I, pinned down in a trench by enemy fire, or put into a huge cloud they can't even walk out of before succumbing, or just from getting a very concentrated blast. The damage is done during exposure, however intense and however long that is. Death only come later, as the damage and the body's often fatal response play out. At the very end, the victim gets weak, loses consciousness, and then dies. But this is after a while of enduring it, when the coughing gets too difficult and breathing stops, and as the body is shutting down.

I can't see how, but perhaps there's a way chlorine would knock you out right away in some fluke circumstances. But here, people in the bomb damaged houses seem to just die instantly, or instantly become inert, loose consciousness or "fall asleep." And it happens in perhaps every case where the bomb allegedly lands in someone's home.

In fact, if one passed out from something else earlier, the chlorine would likely have the same effect as smelling salts, and snap the victim awake to get the hell out of there. But not in these stories. Like poorly-scripted silent movie heroines, they lay down in the sleepy fog and await rescue. But the gas makes them unreachable to rescuers, who claim to lack gear, and to sometimes pass out themselves... and so the implausible victim slowly dies inside.  This happens regularly, as if to keep the reminders fresh.

Is someone locking them inside these houses? No. Who could get there quick enough after the bombing? It takes just seconds to get out the door. Were they maybe locking people inside some unrelated place we might call a gas chamber? Some evidence says this is quite likely, and has even been the norm, down the line from the earliest alleged CW attacks to the present.For now, let's just keep an open mind and note the provided explanation doesn't make sense.

We're presented here with about the same formula we've seen since the start of the chlorine allegations - a bomb-damaged house, often looking long-abandoned, with the alleged delivery device in there, said to be filled with chlorine, and the family all just sat there and died.

2.2) November 20: The "Baytounji Family"
In HRW's report are 8 dead civilians verified, and at least two more reported, out of just 8 incidents. I knew about those listed by the VDC, but that didn't include the bulk of these: an entire family of six, killed November 20 in al-Sakhour district.

A witness said this chlorine bomb was dropped shortly after midnight, early on the 20th, impacting a house near a vegetable market. "The smell was like the liquid we use when we clean the house.” Videos show a house in ruins "and remnants of a yellow cylinder amid the rubble." It's said the family died here; A medical activist told them he "put a wet cloth over his mouth and went out to check the neighborhood," finding in one house "five dead civilians, a mother, father and three children. Their faces were blue."

Other activists and reports agree with photos and videos, citing six dead and showing 4 children. The man is seen in some cases, but the woman isn't. I haven't watched the videos yet. That will get a special space if I do. So a better resolution image analysis forthcoming. (Update 2-19: that's done - see here.) Here's a still from a clip of it in HRW's video, with too little detail to say much about the poison.

They seem to be two girls and two boys, maybe 3 boys and a girl. They show no sign of being trapped beneath the rubble (light dust usually, torn clothes, injuries, etc.). They may be a bit dingy and smoke-stained, which is a different sign (abusive captivity). But they weren't pinned down under the rubble. So why didn't they flee the choking gas? Four different children, and two adults ... between them, no one thought of a better plan than to just sit there and die?

Was it because they didn't have their shoes on? It's not clear why they're off here, but they're often removed before an Islamist executes you, and maybe as they start to process you. They did get out of bed and get dressed up in daytime clothes, pretty quickly after this "shortly after midnight" attack... strange that. But shoes or not, they didn't get out the door in time. Note: hostages aren't given pajamas to sleep in, and don't even have to die at the stated time.

Reuters heard these were members of a Baytounji family. "Human Rights Watch has not been able to independently verify the names." There seems to be no record in the VDC martyrs database of people of this name dying, perhaps ever (it's hard to be sure what spelling they would use, and I don't have the Arabic spelling). Unless they were listed under a different name and a different cause, it seems this usually exhaustive source missed out on this mini-massacre.

Update 2-18: The family may be listed, but the VDC didn't get the name. I may have assembled the name in Arabic ( بيتونجي ), and found just one result: a man named Ibrahim Hajjar Baytounji, from the Syriac Christian community in Aleppo, helped fund the building of a church or a roof for one in or near Aleppo, back in the 1930s (Arabic essay). I found no other info, just this indication Baytounji is a rare name in rotation in Aleppo's Christian community. This strengthens the impression this Aleppo family might've been hostages of the Islamists, being Christians, and were killed before the terrorists left the area, since it couldn't be done after... Explained here at ACLOS. 2-19: See also Monitor analysis here. I can summarize like so:

A likely Christian family in Aleppo with captivity clues was likely hanged upside down and murdered with some horrible gas and/or smoke. This happened as Islamist rebels liquidated property before fleeing to Idlib in the amnesty deal, and as they sought (always) to blame the government for fresh crimes. The mother might have been killed differently. There's no reason to suspect any aircraft were involved in this tying up and gas-roasting-??, aside from that yellow tank in someone's home and the story behind it.

... (continued below)

2.3) The Other Suspiciously Passive Croakers
Dec 8 attack: "Al-Khattat said that the attack killed two people: Ammar Shohaiber, around 40, and Mohammad Abrach, around 50." Other sources tended to agree. But as HRW notes, the VDC lists Ammar Shohaiber and an unidentified woman - no ages given, but they seemed like a husband and wife - and the age similarity of the men is notable ... but whatever, in one or two locations, two people with decades of wisdom behind them had their houses fill with chlorine gas ... and they just sat there and died?

A 55-year-old woman was killed, November 2, HRW heard, after the chlorine tank smashed through her roof. No one could get close enough to help her open the door, and drag her out, because the gas was so strong you couldn't stand it. But she must have, you know, passed out. Neither HRW, VDC, or anyone that I've seen got her name.

An alleged two other people were said to be killed on Nov. 28. No genders or details were given. HRW couldn't confirm anything. Maybe that witness misread the memo, seeing 12-8 (when two died) as 11-28, and so he gave the wrong day? There was a reported attack of 11-28, but no one else mentioned any deaths.

Some sources also reported another five civilians killed after the December 9 attack (again, no details). HRW couldn't confirm it, but it's not likely to just be made up. Most likely, as usual, this is in one gas-filled home, where five more people just sat there and died from the chlorine gas that "Assad" dropped on them, for no good reason. That's a total of perhaps 16 implausible deaths, or even more, in this chain of 8 attacks.


HRW gives no explanation for how these deaths happened, or whether it's usual or expected. If they did, they'd point to precedent from Syria in the last 3 years, which is meaningless.  Did the nature of chlorine change recently? Is this a different chemical, or some combination, being dropped from helicopters? Or does the true story follow different lines entirely, ones that run along the ground?

Continuing with the self-quote above:

Totally unseen, a woman just sat there and died Nov. 23 (and she's unidentified by everyone), two people Dec. 8 (both men named, but some disagree on one's gender), perhaps two other on  Nov. 28 (unidentified and no age/gender specified), and perhaps five more on December 9 (unidentified and no age/gender specified). But the precedent set by these barely-named first deaths is not good, as we see people getting more and more vague about who's dying here.

Human Rights Watch refers to this same family death, with less detail, and to the other cases with almost no detail. They fill in the gaps with a nonsense story from Islamist activists, and make moral pronouncements as if they know the truth now. Ole Solvang, deputy emergencies director at Human Rights Watch, is quoted saying “The United Nations Security Council shouldn’t let Syrian authorities or anyone else who has used chemical weapons get away without consequences.” To back that up, "Human Rights Watch called on the Syrian government to immediately stop using chemicals as weapons," and may have offered complete impunity to the actual killers, as they left east Aleppo Scott-free in a line of green buses. 

3) What Else Did HRW Miss?

After the (fall / re-conquest / liberation) of eastern Aleppo, signs emerged of a rebel chlorine industry there - Press TV report on Saudi chemicals found stored there (relevance unclear). An RT report with Lizzie Phelan shows a former school perhaps used as a chlorine factory, with hundreds of large jugs of magenta-colored potassium permanganate, in a liquid form. Mixed with hydrochloric acid, this produces pure chlorine gas. That might be able to be bottled somehow. (ACLOS) This is like the 2015 Assad chlorine barrel bomb, but taken out of the barrel and put in a terrorist-run former school. Reverse engineering, or is it more the other way around? Hm...

Some executed soldiers, hostages rebels had killed before escaping on the green buses - seen in photos with no visible wounds or blood - these might have been gassed, though chlorine isn't particularly indicated...  (same link - one other might have been beheaded)

Human Rights Watch start their survey on November 17, but list the first incident on the 18th.  Their interactive map also starts at 11-17, and blank - no chlorine attack that day. But oddly, one was reported and condemned, in a prominent but shady string of reported events I'll write up soon (see here at ACLOS for now) Chlorine victims went to the clinic, which was then bombed, and babies in incubators had to be removed for their safety - all the babies lived, it was said - including the one that was already dead and stiff with rigor mortis before the alleged hospital bombing. Now HRW adds - the chlorine part didn't happen? What next? The barrel bombing of the hospital was staged?

Earlier attacks: Sept. 6, east Aleppo, government blamed: 2 fatal victims, both seen, neither seems exposed to chlorine (Monitor).

Aug. 2, old city, Aleppo (government-held) a quick-killing CW inside a breached tunnel kills 5 soldiers, chlorine rockets after kill rescuers and civilians, a reported total of 13 killed - here's a rescue worker who died (via InGaza). He displays cyanosis (general purple color all over, his blood is in deep crisis, if he's even alive here), skin irritation (redness, and the mud suggests it burned, it might seem like mud could soothe that). Importantly, there's blood from the nose, and he'll have blood in the lungs, and maybe thick protective mucous now, complicating things. He also might have eye damage (lids would look swollen/puffy, and they might).

This was a pretty audacious chemical attack, but it went barely-noted outside Syria, eclipsed by a same-day alleged chlorine attack, from regime helicopter with a barrel bomb of course, on rebel-held Sarmin, but no one was lined up in time to die from it. (ACLOS)

April 7, 2016, Khan al-Assal Aleppo: Jaish al-Islam now operates around Aleppo? Their admitted chlorine weapons were fired - unauthorized, they said, and the  guy broke the rules would be punished - it's unclear if he was. 23 (all Kurdish fighters?) reported killed. One victim at right: bloody face, possible severe eye damage - maybe a strange facial injury, or a nasty dose of acid. (ACLOS)

Further back, the Taleb babies killed by chemicals on March 16, 2015 in Sarmin, Idlib province. Helicopters dropped a chlorine-mixing barrel bomb on the home of a family of 6, all of whom just sat there and died in their basement home. Grandma fell asleep on the stairs trying to leave the babies behind. Mom and dad passed out, but were alive and able to talk at the hospital before dying. The three babies were rescued later, at least 2 still alive. They were rushed to this clinic where they die on camera with poor assistance.

And it seems they were never exposed to chlorine, and died from something else ... white, calm eyes, pale skin, no blood, no choking, no coughing. In fact, they're barely breathing, not moving or responding, and totally limp - they're comatose, and then somewhere they slip over to dead. All this suggest most likely they were overdosed with a CNS depressant drug like moprhine, demerol, or other. (ACLOS, Monitor) This doesn't come from a dropped barrel bomb. It's hand-delivered by locals, with needles or pills, somewhere before this MSF-supplied field clinic, but perhaps from its shelves anyway.

Back in mid-2014, various displaced families, almost entirely, wound up under the chlorine bombs, and tended to die altogether, after just sitting there for never-explained reasons. (Monitor)

Back further ...  March 19, 2013, Khan al-Assal, Aleppo: a rebel rocket releases a yellow-green plume some say smelled like chlorine. But don't worry - it was sarin, all evidence suggests. That's why 20 people died and it makes perfect sense. That was fired by Jabhat al-Nusra, on a government-held area, aiming for an army checkpoint, but mostly killing nearby civilians (the village was majority Shi'ite, for what it's worth...) (ACLOS)

December 22, 2012: seven SAA soldiers die after inhaling yellow-green gas fired at them in Daraya, southwest of Damascus ... perhaps pinned down - and it might have been sarin, of the kind used in Khan al-Assal, despite the chlorine-like color (unclear at this point) they didn't show us this on Youtube, but did report it among several such attacks they wanted the UN and OPCW to investigate. (ACLOS)

The next day, rebels responded with a widely discredited allegation, a chemical attack by the regime in Homs, perhaps with sarin. Exactly seven men/rebels were killed, in what became known as the first deadly alleged chemical incident of the war. But U.S. and most official sources dismissed this, some seven men must have stood there and inhaled an entire canister of the non-lethal incapacitating agent BZ, after it was dispersed in the street. (Monitor analysis). That sounds silly and doesn't explain anything, but at least BZ is known to incapacitate people so they might just sit there and die, eventually. But again, the kind of chlorine that exists in the real world does not do that.