"Shesh-Besh" Strike in Donetsk

December 22 (rough, incomplete)

On the evening of December 21, a well-connected Russian named Dmitry Rogozin -  former General Director of Roscosmos (Russia's version of NASA) - was celebrating his birthday in the newly-Russian city of Donetsk. It was a grand event at the secluded "Shesh-Besh" restaurant/cafe/hotel/resort south of the city, on Donetske More lake. Others including innocent relatives, restaurant staff, and Vitaly Khotsenko, Prime Minister of the Donetsk Peoples' Republic (elected in June)  were in attendance when at least two powerful artillery shells - reportedly 155mm caliber - slammed into Shesh-Besh. Aside from material damage, at least 8 people were injured, two of whom died. Rogozin was injured by some reports and not so by others, while Khotsenko was slightly injured after his bodyguard was one of the two that were killed.

https://t.me/readovkanews/49419 with a vbrief report and a video from Ruptly (graphic but blurred) 

"In addition, it is specified that the head of the government of the DPR, Vitaly Khotsenko, who was also in the cafe, was slightly injured and refused hospitalization."

Ukraine-by-standers of course cheered and joked at an attempt on a Russian elite with the audacity to live another year - and/or the head of the local DPR "terrorist" government, in what would otherwise classify as a terrorist strike or illegal assassination attempt. They seemed ok that others were wounded and killed in this presumably Ukrainian strike, without even knowing who they are, like if any children were included. (See replies under FLASH on Twitter)

When someone points out that's not legal or acceptable, someone will claim the Russians killed these people themselves just to make Ukraine look bad. So for what it's worth, I'll again focus on amateur ballistic analysis

Google Maps labels lead me to a spot by a lake south of Donetsk city: coordinates 47.933442,37.7847399.  Not many views even in Google Earth, but enough to match the site. The labeled building is 2 stories, roughly 10m by 30m, with long sides facing west and east. The blown-in windows face onto a canopied area and then an area with gazebos and such, some of them lit - this appears only on the west side - exterior views clarify this, with views from the north, etc,.  

interior video: widely-posted - Ruptly via Readovka - basic scene:

That view faces northwest to windows A & B as I label them - beyond is more damaged, concealed by some ceiling paper that has dropped like curtains. But another impact occurred just outside to the left, somewhere around windows B and C. Panning left, here's B and half of C. Below: the fatality seen at the site was badly punctured near widow C.

A Russia24 video has an extended view around window/doorway D, at the hall's southwest corner. A corner doorway out to the left still seems passable.

https://twitter.com/RebeccaRambar/status/1605824740152729600

Note that mainly we're seeing the south half of the building in this interior view, with the "curtain" hiding a good bit that might be mora damaged. 

exterior video https://twitter.com/javierh02532765/status/1605878418133995522

https://t.me/wargonzo/9945

Yet to include here: https://twitter.com/IgorFedorovsky/status/1605886732385210368

photos https://twitter.com/shelaguia/status/1605923133965455362

https://twitter.com/ilmondoeditutti/status/1605910235801161728

Overview graphic correlating upper windows 1-8, and lower windows/doors A-D with two distinct impact areas, and possible firing directions, explained below.

A less-seen but dramatic impact on the upper floor apparently wiped out upper windows 2 and 3 and whatever was behind them. I can't call the firing direction with certainty yet, but the way the timbers flay out to the right (orange), that being to the side of an impact from the northwest makes the most sense. 

Minor exit wounds at the north end...

Upper window 1 intact, but past that, not so much.

Upper windows 5-8 intact, left of that less clear 

What seems to be window 4 is intact but misaligned on that flayed-out section. 

 

The bloody scene inside was probably caused by a shell that impacted the ground floor wall around windows B and C (the gray span above, across from the missing handrail). Outer cladding stripped away, various fragmentation marks, widows blown in, canopy blown open, etc. Windows A,B,&C lit (another to the left is dark) 

Impact point: unclear, but maybe on the porch just below window C, where the ground seems concave, but partly filled with debris. I'm not sure yet what direction the shell came from - left, right, or straight in. I can see indications for left and right, but at the moment, from the left or south makes better visual sense, as mapped above with a question mark. 

That would mean an attack from 2 directions at once. This is neither the most logical assumption nor that implausible. I'll see about securing a better reading. In both directions and plain west in between, about 20-22 km out lies the Marinka front line, where well-armed Ukrainian forces are losing ground daily, and probably using it to the maximum first with this and other attacks on the people of Donetsk. M114 howitzer that fires 155mm shells has a maximum range around 24-25 km. 20-22km in contested territory is totally use-it-before-you-lose-it range. And they had an extra-ripe target this time.

But then there is a lot of Russian/DPR-controlled space in between. Could it be they used some of it to try and kill their own leader and a well-connected Russian, just to make the Ukrainians cheer and also look bad? I guess it's possible, but I still suspect they look so bad simply because they are. That doesn't require any Russian conspiracy.