Inaugurating a Reign of Terror on Yablunska

Death in Bucha's Gray Zone, part 7: 

Inaugurating a "Reign of Terror" on Yablunska

July 10, 2022

(rough, incomplete)

Perhaps the best case for a genocidal Bucha Massacre came on March 5, when Russian tanks rolled in to northeast Yablusnka street and "a Russian sniper began firing on anything moving."  Counting those with clear locations, at least 18 civilians were killed here between March 4 and mid-day on March 10 - most of them visually confirmed and geolocated - with as many as 15 of them on the 5th. 

I started with great skepticism over these killings pinned on Russia, but having learned more of the military situation, the scope for any "false-flag" operations appears quite limited. Russian forces are probably responsible for the vast bulk of the violence examined here, but not all of it. Some clear war crimes are described, including at least one field execution and several shootings by snipers, and these claims have some support or at least can't all be ruled out. However, most incidents are murkier and require some study to compare the stories with the other available evidence. 

Some early deaths at 203 Yablunska

First, some examples of what I'm not counting, but include as possibly relevant - as related in some detail at another Monitor post, a connected-seeming local Oleksandr Konovalov claimed, in a June report to RFE/RL, to have found 11 bodies in a cellar near his home at 203 Yablunska, something no other sources I've seen mention. 

Back on April 2 or 4, also speaking to RFE/RL, he only knew of 4 early deaths, buried and separate from the 11.  None of them has further corroboration, and only one has a clear date. Therefore, I won't count these among the 18 below. Pointing to building 203A, Konovalov says six men and four women were living there when the Russians came. "They killed three men out of six." over days. He leads with "[The Russian troops] came here on February 27," but "the first day" for killings might refer to their arrival as occupiers, given by a few sources as March 3. 

2/27 or 3/3: "On the first day, they shot Yevhen on the street for no obvious reason. No one knows why." No victim of that name known to me, and no deaths here are known on either day. Burial place, if any, is unclear.

2/28 or 3/4" The next day, they shot Leonid. That morning, he showed them his documents and said that he lived here. He was shot in the back when he turned around." (gestures towards graves). A man who lived nearby  - Entry 1 below, Valerii Kizilov - was reported shot by soldiers sometime on the 4th at his own and different home. On either day, Leonid too seems a new story.  

2/28 or 3/4, or a later day: "They killed the third man when they were drunk. They told him to hand over their mobile phones. He brought the phones, and they shot him and then threw a grenade at him. He was buried in pieces without his head. It was horrible." (points to graves) That's a strange story we've never heard. The guy blown up AND shot, admittedly for no logical reason ("drunk") ... after collaborating with the Russians by delivering the phones of locals ... perhaps he was killed by a mortar shell or the like, from the Kiev side, maybe aiming for the soldiers. Maybe an Azov Battalion drone was used, lessening the likelihood this collaborator was killed on accident. If so, it would have to re-branded as a Russian crime, and the dumber the better, from the mindless, corrupted and self-destructive "orcs" of Banderite fairy tales. Either way - what remarkably poor luck had this building, at the edge of Bucha's no-man's land and Kiev's defense by artillery. 

Finally, as what seems a side-note, Oleksandr adds "My brother was killed on March 5 at around 5 o'clock when he was walking to a cellar. He was buried over there," pointing east. That's a date, but no name or killing location. It sounds like a match with #14, Roman, except for a different burial location. If this refers to one already listed, I can't say which. I won't count it in the 18. But before counting, note this could add 3 or 4 to the area total, or even more if some of those 11 in the cellar were killed this early.

3/4-3/10 East Yablunska Killings 

As widely reported, a reign of terror with random shootings and tank shelling along Yablunska street was ushered in with a bang on the 5th, after a smaller start on the 3rd. This is one of the few places Kiev's forces would be most capable of operating in, by virtue of two nearby river crossings from Irpin into Bucha's east and south. But that may not matter in these days and with these killings. 

Here, we'll consider at least 18 people killed between March 4 and March 10 on and near this 2-block stretch of Yablunska street (2 happened a block south, one a bit north). As many as 15 of these killing happened on March 5, at least one was reportedly on the 4th, one on the 6th, 17 dead by March 7, all 18 by noon on the 10th. In this central area, there's a lot of information from dated visuals and reports to cross-correlate it all with some confidence. This post expands on and improves my early "Mortar Alley" starter post. This overview map improves on the one there, which had placed the roundabout one block east, stretching the scene - that's fixed here. (the killings at that roundabout are not included here, happening a bit past the present timeframe.)

What we know about the circumstances of these are related below, in mostly chronological order.

1) Valerii Kizilov: Reuters and Digital Journal report Russian forces first arrived in south-central Bucha on March 3. commandeering the home of Vitalii Zhyvotovskyi. As told, they made him and his daughter stay in the basement, while they lived upstairs and brought people who were beaten and sometimes executed on-site. The first reported killing came on their second day, March 4: Valerii Kizilov, 70, stepped out of a cellar where he and his wife were hiding, across the street at 64 Vodprovidna. His wife, Lyudmyla Kizilova, 67, "heard shooting, then silence and an order shouted to her. “If there is someone down there, come out or I’ll throw a grenade in." She came out, was allowed to live and stay with the Zhyvotovskyis in their basement. 

Mrs. Kizilov says she later found Vitalii's body, shot in the head, and the Russians buried it in their garden March 9. She and the Zhyvotovskyis managed to flee on the 10th. Photos of the Zhyvotovskyi house with the Reuters report match with Vodoprovidna 55 (not numbered on Google Maps or on Yandex maps but logically it would be 55). Another article includes a photo "Lyudmyla Kizilova ... outside their partially destroyed house in town of Bucha, northwest of Kyiv, on April 27, 2022. " It looks like Vodoprovidna 64, right across the street.  Her house was still intact March 12-13, had been shelled and burned by the 23rd (Azov drone views), along with #55, with fires and escape tracks across the field behind. 

We don't have visual confirmation of the body or grave, but it seems likely enough, and it's dated with a name and story, the earliest such death in this area.

2) Irina Filkina: Catherine Philp wrote for the Times April 9: "The first to die on Yablunska Street was a female cyclist whose death was captured by a Ukrainian drone..." It was on March 5, not March 3, as the video initially claimed, so not quite the first. Her case has its own post here to consider the details. The time is not certain, at first seeming to me like close to the 5PM curfew, but reportedly in the morning, earlier than Oleg Abramov was killed. His wife (also named Iryna - I spell them differently to help avoid confusion) "said that she saw the body of a woman lying next to a bicycle a few meters from their gate, just after Russian forces shot and killed her husband." 

Filkina would be identified by her distinctive manicure, as seen in a close-up photo, and connected to a story related by her family members, especially daughter Olga. Irina was sheltering and helping at the Epicenter shopping center in western Kiev from Feb. 24 to March 5, when increased shelling had everyone departing the mall (which was apparently used by the military to launch attacks on Russian forces). She decided to go home to Mikhailovka-Rubezhovka, west of Irpin. She drove - apparently by bicycle - to the Romanivka crossing, then had to cross the river on foot, as the bridge was destroyed, Then she secured a bicycle (or a different one - unclear why) and continued towards home. But she didn't go directly to the west. There was a Russian offensive that day in western Irpin. She may have been directed north to avoid that fighting. 

A man from Irpin told Irina's daughter a woman fitting the description "rode a bicycle through the "Ukrainsky" checkpoint in the Buchansky district" at the north end of Irpin and the bridge to Bucha. Then she "turned around the corner, and the Russian military shot at her." Checkpoints should be manned, by people who seemingly waved Iryna further north to die, rather than turning her back, like Olga recalls trying to do. They'd say they were unaware of the Russian offensive all along her route, or the column of tanks that just arrived across the river. But an Azov Battalion drone was watching that column as it sat parked on and near Yablunska; it would watch her cycle right towards them, up Vokzalna street, and film the fatal shot just around the corner where she finally turned west. 

On the video, 2 tanks are seen firing, one primarily and starting before she was visible. It also seems that was aiming more up the street (see below, entries 5 & 6), rather than at her. The second tank fires just once, moments later (and thus likely in reaction to her), sending up white dust near the fence, likely including concrete dust from the impact that killed her. That might be the same one that knocked down a light pole, but it looks more like that already happened. Otherwise, I think, it would be visible in the yellow box above.  

The armored column responsible for that is presumably - but not certainly - Russian operated and part of their general expansion from the city's southwest. It could have just been surprised by her appearance, taking it as a threat. But they have much more to (allegedly) answer for.

3) Oleg Abramov: This too has a dedicated post, to be updated. Irina Filkina was shot right in front of the home of Volodomyr Abramov, his daughter Iryna Abramova, and her husband Oleg Abramov (who took his wife's name). Sometime in the morning, after Filkina's killing, one of the same armored vehicles pulled up closer, and in most versions, they tossed a "grenade" in the window, or perhaps fired a tank or even mortar shell ("projectile"), starting a fire. There's also a gas generator being started at the time to consider, and fragmentation marks all along the fence still to analyze. Whatever it was, and/or some later event blew the roof and some upper walls away from about 20m square. That happened prior to noon on March 10 (satellite), quite likely on the 5th just after the drone footage discussed above, For all we know, a Ukrainian mortar crew tried to hit the Russian column but hit the house instead. 

Then, as the story has been told many times now, the soldiers shot the gate with their rifles (it was unlocked), stormed into the yard and ordered everyone out, asking over and over where "the Nazis" were. No one knew. While the house burned, they had Oleg take off his shirt, presumably to check for Nazi tattoos. Finding no tattoos, facing no resistance, the soldiers shot Oleg in the head right there on the corner, killing him. They then sent Iryna and her father away, after a 3-hour interrogation, having them walk southwest on Yablunska, away from the frontline, where they found some shelter for the coming weeks.  

Iryna says she "always thought of [the Russians] as our brothers," being half-Russian herself. Of course, she changed her mind about that, thanks to the described events. Iryna says "She thinks they [executed Oleg] to scare others in Bucha into submission." The message would be "this is what happens to people who don't resist, have no known weapons, no military service, no Nazi tattoos, no Nazi addresses to give." It would not be in the Russians' rational interest. This sounds like up-close execution for no reason by villains in full cartoon mode, with a strong dose of suspicious irony. We're probably missing part of the story, but even after some closer looking, it's not clear just what. To be continued.

4) Another Body (and Maybe Another): Iryna Abramova saws she saw "bodies" already on the street when Oleg was killed. Irina Filkina was one (on the sidewalk next to the downed pole), and only one other is seen right there later. That body (seemingly adult male, with a white armband) is visible by satellite on March 10, in drone views on March 12/13 covered with a white banner, then uncovered by March 25 to April 2 and then moved to the sidewalk. The body was originally near a car that, by the drone video of the 5th, had already been shot or shelled and was partially crushed - maybe by a heavy truck as opposed to a tank. "On the night of March 4, [Iryna and Oleg] heard huge trucks passing in the road." It's not clear whose trucks, nor driving which way. Video analysis suggests all the marked items were down like this prior to the Abramov killing. 

The car seems to change positions from the March 5 image. Different ways to read that. 

Not mentioned: another body inside the Abramovs' gate. Iryna mentions a male cousin lived there, but never said if he was involved in the events of the 5th. As of March 25 anyway, a body is visible inside their gate (marked above as "??"), and can later be seen in views like the above, inside the gate laying next to Oleg's motorcycle. If the cousin were away, or had evacuated like most, anyone else is more likely to get killed here later. We'll count this death as an undated maybe, 4b on the overview map due to possible incident connection, but excluded from the count and "at least" tallies.

5,6) Volodomyr Brovchenko and another Man: The tanks in front of the Abramov house had already been doing stuff seen on video, like shooting cyclist Irina Filkina. The lead tank fires five times, and in one case, a glowing tank shell is visible (Qoppa). This can be approximately lined up with the tank's cannon turret and the line extended to estimate where it was aimed - not at Filkina but more straight down the street. The drone view doesn't go far enough to show an impact, but I marked features on a wider view that did and skewed that sketch until it fit here, to extend the view (approximate). It roughly intersects with a tree that was splintered and downed in front of 221 Yablunska, apparently on March 5. That should only require one shell; it's not clear where others might have impacted.

Immediately next to that tree is the corpse of a man with a blue bicycle, in some views guarded by a loyal dog.  He was most likely killed in the same strike that splintered the tree. I have previously written that this was "probably" hit from the southeast, mainly because other nearby impacts showed that (see "Mortar Alley" starter post). But the fence damage mainly to the east of the tree and runs for a ways, plus the way the tree toppled (see images below) fit much better with a tank shell fired from the west, as suggested here. 

AFP, "Death on Yablunska: Four lives that ended in Bucha" (one posting at The Star): Volodymyr Brovchenko, 68, was "shot dead while pedalling up Yablunska around March 5. A neighbour tried to pull his corpse from the street, and that man ended up getting shot too" but not fatally (and maybe somewhere else, really). "Brovchenko thus lay on the pavement with a blue bike for weeks." The other bicyclist in this stretch, with orange gloves, is named in the same article, and he died on the 6th, so this one with a blue bike must be him. 

Another man with no details is dead just on the other side of that tree, probably killed in that same shelling, collapsed with a small bag of groceries (maybe just baby potatoes). I've seen no reports with details on that one. but Mr. Brovchenko ...

A CBC News video (3:00) shows the same man and says "Volodomyr Brovchenko was killed by a sniper around March 5, according to neighbors. He was on his way to work at an orphanage in Vorzel." (Vorzel is just west of Bucha). Catherine Philp, The Times, April 9: "It was March 5" exactly, when "Volodymyr Borovchenko stepped out on Yablunska Street ... to reach the disabled children he cared for at an orphanage in Vorsel." He kept stepping, they heard, not pedaling. "...he moved gingerly. But he walked into an ambush. A sniper had been lying in wait, determined to keep the street clear of all human life."   

Small tears visible on his coat - similar to but denser than those seen on Irina Filkina's coat (and bicycle seat?) Apparently that's what this kind of tank shelling does. 

Confirming that 2 men were killed here, and killed first, TBS News Dig (Japan): A man on Yablunska said "When I looked through the hole in the wall on March 5 and 6, there were already bodies," In an accompanying video report, at 2:40 a video is shared, with a date shown as March 5, 12:04 PM. What's visible vs. what's blurred suggests the tree and 2 men are down; the whole areas is covered with one wide blur. They blur bodies in Japan, and can show brush like this, but one blur was easier. marked here with 2 white circles and a blue curve, for bodies and the tree. 

The van might be present, but likely is not (green box) Not present yet: The spilled oil from the burned van, and probably the van itself - an oil streak from another attack on a car - the apparent driver of that car, executed on the street. If the time on this is correct, all those things happened after noon of March 5.

7) Mykhailo Kovalenko

The body missing from that view was probably that of Mykhailo Kovalenko, age 62, going by AFP's "Death on Yablunska" report:  "While it was still possible, Mykhailo Kovalenko, his wife and daughter tried on March 5 to escape Bucha by car."  Their route apparently included west on Yablunska, towards the Irpin crossing. It was just before that left turn that Artem, the boyfriend of Kovalenko's daughter, says Kovalenko ""got out of the vehicle with his hands up" to present himself to a checkpoint manned by Russian soldiers." Nonetheless, Artem says, "the troops opened fire." His wife and daughter were able to run away, Artem says, even though the wife was shot in the leg as she ran - not injured in an attack on the car. No such attack is included in this telling; it sounds like they stopped voluntarily upon seeing the checkpoint, and were shot individually from there.

A later AFP report: "On the right in a black coffin is Mykhailo Kovalenko, 62, a father who was killed by a Russian sniper as he tried to escape, according to his grieving son-in-law." This indirect witness is the only one we've heard from. 

Handy description from "Death on Yablunska": Mr. Kovaleko's body lay on its side, dressed in a "blue parka and smart beige trousers." That's probably the body seen here, just behind a van he wasn't driving. But it seems that he was initially next to a car, the one his wife and daughter fled from. 

Some violence stopped the car there and caused a leak, with oil or whatever adding a stain on the pavement next to Mikhailo's body. As shown below (Azov drone, 3/25), that built up right there for some time (hours?) forming a large puddle, then a trail following the car as it was pushed back and off the street. This happened before the earliest images of March 6 or 7 including the burning van (next entry). Off the street, the car was then ransacked. Basic evacuation stuff is seen, including women's clothing. 

It wasn't mentioned, but the car came under attack. Some damage from this: bullet holes or fragment marks from maybe two angles, or from ahead and to the left; both driver's side windows shot out, marks along the driver's door and at the back end, an oblique tear - some others shattered the windshield, a couple in the hood, and at least one into a front tire. This would likely be prior to their stopping, and it might have caused injuries prior to Mr. Kovelnko stepping out or his wife running. In fact, it seems quite possible the attack was somewhat accidental and caused all these injuries, and the story was embellished to clarify criminal intent.

There's another body closest to the car, with less blood on the pavement than with most. That itself could suggest he had bled in the car, but the story has no room for a different or a second man in that car, and it may be a coincidence. In fact, it looks like the car was steered away from him as it was rolled back, set to perhaps run him over. That body remains publicly unidentified, and is counted below as simply before March 7 (in the image below, both bodies possibly connected are boxed along with the car in pale blue.)

8, 9, 10, 11) Three Women and a Girl in a Van

Now to that burned-out van. It's reported that three women and a girl (the only child whose death is considered here) were killed inside of it. This deserves its own post, and then a summary here, but for now ...

An early report from April 11 focused on the driver, Zhanna Kameneva, born 1985, a patriot from Bucha who had volunteered helping the military since 2014 and, with the public organization "Buchanska Varta", she "brought assistance to orphanages in Donetsk and Luhansk regions." Photo: Zhanna Kameneva during one of the trips to the East, from ZN.UA.

After the Russian invasion of 2022, she helped evacuate people from Bucha, according to a military man with "Buchanska Varta," Bogdan Yavorsky, who confirmed Kameneva's death: "According to Yavorsky, on March 5, she was carrying her employee from Bucha to Kyiv with her 14-year-old daughter and neighbor when the car was shot from armored personnel carriers and, probably, with assault rifles, as a result of which the car burned down and all four people died." According to Yavorsky, According to the activist, Zhanna labeled her car "children" and "evacuation." The van was identified by the VIN code in April. Kamaneva's remains (presumed - it seems no DNA testing was possible) were buried on April 9. 

A more detailed report from ZN.UA ("Mirror of the Week?") in May includes a photo looking inside the van to show less than four peoples' worth of carbonized tissue in 4 seats, the rest of it probably nearby. The victims are listed as: Zhanna Kameneva, Maria Ilchuk, 14-year-old Anya Mishchenko and her mother Tamila Mishchenko. 

Zn.ua spoke to Zhanna's bereaved husband Gennady (Kamanev?), who has served in the Ukrainian Armed Forces since February 24. That day, she evacuated their children. After nthat, "Joan [Zhanna] in Bucha transported people's products from our store and, if possible, took out friends and those who asked for help. ...On March 3, she told me that people would come and take the last products. On the 4th, she came home to Bucha, moved to the night and on March 5 she already wanted to go to Irpin." 

It's not clear exactly how to read that passage - what "products" there was in whose "store" in Bucha the "last" of which was so urgently needed in government-held Irpin? "People" would take it, but we hear Mrs. Kamaneva herself "was carrying food to Irpin." Gennady and Zhanna are both described as "volunteering." In his case, it's with the Ukrainian military, and perhaps in her case as well. The nature of this March 5 mission is a bit unclear, in a way that might be very relevant.

"On the morning of March 5, Zhanna called me and said that she had come to Bucha and saw how enemy equipment came to our Lech Kaczynski Street." What he calls "our street" is the location of the same day's killing of the Chikmaryov family reportedly by said tanks, at 7:15 AM. It's unclear if she had been there overnight or came in the morning, but either way she might have seen that event, or the aftermath of it. If so, she doesn't mention it. "I asked her to be careful and she said, "I love you very much."

Ilchuk (the "employee"?), was ill and suffering in the cold. She turned down an early evacuation offer, but now "agreed to go with [Zhanna] when she saw what atrocities the occupiers were committing in Bucha." Tamila Mishchenko was apparently Zhanna's employer, and not a close neighbor. Her son, and Anya's older brother, Evgeny said "it so happened that my mother's employee Zhanna, who was a volunteer, was carrying food to Irpin. She called my mother and said that now she would go past Tarasivska Street and would be able to take us out. ..." Yandex Maps shows Tarasivska street a bit north of east Yablunska. The 3 areas and basic suggested route are mapped at right. 

"Then from Irpen there was still a train on which it was possible to get to Kiev." The rail bridge was blown, by the "Rashits" as told, but from the Kiev side, sometime that same morning. And they never crossed to Irpin anyway, although they apparently got close. 

Evgeniy refused to go, Anya reportedly didn't want to go, and their family in general had encouraged them to stay put until there was an agreed "green corridor." Evgeniy explained how their home was unusually safe, but he says "panic and fear worked. My mother wanted to save my sister, so she took this step" and accepted the fatal ride to Irpin. He also says:

"On March 5, I texted Zhanna with the question: "How is my mother?" In response, she wrote a short word: "Norm." And when I called Zhanna's number after lunch, I heard in response: "This number does not exist." My mother's number replied: "At the moment, the caller cannot accept your call.""

Damage Analysis: Zhanna's husband Gennady was convinced that the Russian military killed his wife, from a "checkpoint" on the corner of Vokzalna and Yablunska streets. Seeing the van, Gennady thought it might have been hit with a Rocket-Propelled Grenade or the cannon of an Infantry Fighting Vehicle - less than full-on tank fire. In my assessment, the main impact was through the windshield - an extra-scorched arc across the hood might mark its detonation ring - a pressure wave bulged out the roof and driver's side, tearing out on the passenger side - a number of fragments and/or bullets tore into the hood and windshield frame - a separate shell impact to the grill, driver's side. There seem to be more punctures clear in the back of the van, and some are clearly visible from the back. The van may have been shot from the back at one point, as well as from the front. Damage from later fighting can't be ruled out.

Timeline Issues: At the ZN.UA article, a sort of death certificate is shown, saying Zhanna Kamaneva died March 5. But as far as I can see, that's not clear. Gennady said it was that morning when "sometime around the 10th hour, I received a text message from her: "Enemy tanks are coming at us."" The location was not specified. "She called me, but I didn't have a connection then, and the message came at 11 o'clock. After reading, I immediately began to call her, there was a call, but no one picked up the phone. Perhaps their phones were taken away before they were killed."

The way it actually rang seems to have tipped him off that the phone wasn't destroyed. I'm not sure how that works, but Evgeniy says he got a message that the number doesn't exist - but that was "after lunch." Otherwise, the direct assumption is that they were killed by sudden tank fire on the van, which would have it ablaze by 11 AM, and probably earlier. 

But that was not the case. TBS News Dig (Japan) heard from a man on Yablunska who said "When I looked through the hole in the wall on March 5 and 6, there were already bodies. On the 6th or 7th a car was burned and there were four bodies in it." He's not clear when the people inside became bodies - presumably at the same time the van was burned, presumably in an attack. But as shown above, a video shows that, as of 12:04 PM on the 5th, the van hadn't been attacked yet. It might be present, but in a different position if so. That's about 2 hours after that tank was reportedly headed for them and at least an hour after contact was lost.

The final attack might have happened in the early afternoon or evening, or as said the following day or maybe even on the on 7th. What transpired in the hours to days in between, after their phones were perhaps taken, remains unclear. The van was clearly blasted here; it could hardly drive from anywhere else in this state ... Possibilities: killed here and blasted all at once - killed here while driving the 5th, bodies left inside, or taken out and killed, then put back inside, and then blasted later to burn the evidence - the same but killed elsewhere, then moved here and blasted - no clear motive for the Russians to do that, no clear reason to suspect anyone else - no witnesses to any manipulations - nor to the actual attack, for that matter. Just one external witness mentions it, but he doesn't even clarify the date. 

It would be handy to have this story lead to this spot on the morning of March 5, and to that tank column already seen there and implicated in other apparently senseless killings. The final message and van location would seem to seal that up. But the connective evidence doesn't seem to reflect that sealing, instead revealing an unexplained gap. 

Bucha prosecutors shared with CNN some photos taken mostly on March 5, 6 and 7. One image including the van recently hit, intensely burning like it was hit just minutes ago. Mr. Brovchenko lays dead and Mykhailo Kovalenko pours blood on the pavement, and his car has already been pushed aside. But conveniently enough, they didn't give a specific date for that image.  

So we can only assume a date range of the 5th to the 7th, but I've listed them by the official date and implied time, and more follow on the 5th in the same alleged sequence ... 

12,13) Two Sisters: NYT month of terror:  "On March 5th, a Russian sniper began firing on anything moving south of the high school. ... A retired teacher known as Auntie Lyuda, short for Lyudmyla, was shot midmorning on March 5th as she opened her front door on a small side street. Her body lay twisted, half inside the door, more than a month later." "Her younger sister Nina, who was mentally disabled and lived with her, was dead on the kitchen floor. It was not clear how she died. “They took the territory and were shooting so no one would approach,” a neighbour, Serhiy, said. “Why would you kill a grandma?”"

AFP: "According to her death certificate, Lyudmyla Bochok, 79, was killed by a bullet to the head and the back on March 5. Her body was found lying on the doorstep of her home at 87, Peremogy Street in Bucha." "Bochok's mentally handicapped sister Nina, 74, was found dead in the kitchen: she died of heart failure, according to the death certificate seen by AFP. But her nephew Yevgen Pasternak believes she died of fright, loneliness or hunger, after the Russians executed her sister." 

No such address "87, Peremogy Street" exists, per Google or Yandex Maps. The NYT mapping probably equates to #13 on the corner of Peremohy (Peremogy) street and Peremohy lane. A satellite view and distant street view seem consistent, but not verifiable. This is 2 blocks east and one block south of where the tank column was seen, It's just one block east of where a shelled-out tank appeared just before the bridge to Irpin between March 4 and 10 - likely on the 5th but maybe later. It may have been another Russian tank trying to cross, hit by the Ukrainians. It's not likely to be the other way around; the barricades set by Ukrainian forces are moveable, but comparing them, it seems like they probably weren't moved.  Also added between 3/4 and 3/10 on the Irpin side right in the path of evacuees, is a badly destroyed civilian car and a mostly-intact male corpse next to it. 

Point being: this is almost at the crossing to Irpin, the one place in the area where Ukrainian fighters might still operate, on foot at least, even despite a Russian incursion. Therefore who's around to shoot or to inspire shelling is not so clear as it is right on Yablunska. Their neighbor Serhiy, for example, might know more about this.

I tried some scene analysis from the 4 photos I've found. Outside: a window is broken, several possible marks to both visible walls (from 2 directions, and I can't say which 2), some of them on the obliquely-viewed wall on the left (maybe facing north?) seem to have singed the wall in a way I don't think regular bullets do. Shelling? Less marks appear on the other wall (facing west?). 3 marks are visible on a corner inside the door (a wardrobe?), maybe from bullets at a distance. It could be a shell impacted, and when she came out to inspect, someone shot her. We can't see any marks on Lyudmila's body, but another photo I've seen in clear she lost some blood across the pavement. That photo also shows the interior marks better (inset here).

Inside, kitchen wall - unclear how it relates to the doorway seen above: one possible bullet or fragment mark of the regular type has cipped the wall, one that hit on the wallpaper also burned a ring around it. Nina was found curled up just below these marks, dead of heart attack in a reported coincidence. She could have been hit, but it's not clear why that should be denied.

Something strange about her hands could have a mix of causes including, but not limited to, decay and frostbite and prior medical conditions.

14) Roman: 

The final entry for the 5th is the only one specified as not in the morning. This one gets half of a dedicated post. In summary, RFE/RL reported from an anonymous man "a sniper started shooting in the area on March 5 ... When we left our house before the curfew time that day, a sniper killed my son-in-law." HRW reported the location as NW Yablunska and the time as "about 4:30" (curfew was 5:00). "[T]hey opened their front gate to assess the damage. As Roman stepped out of the yard, his father-in-law heard a muffled sound and Roman fell to the ground." He was pulled back to safety. "Roman’s sister-in-law, Tetiana, said they tried unsuccessfully to call a hospital and the Ukrainian territorial defense forces for help. Roman suffered all night and died the following morning at about 8 a.m.." 

NYT Month of Terror: Referring to March 5th: "That afternoon, a father and his son stepped out of their gate to go for a walk." Here the father is named Ivan, Roman left unnamed and called son, not son-in-law. Ivan says “They shot my son ... It would be better if it had been me. ... It’s very hard to bury your child.” Roman “died at 8.20 am,” and "the family buried him in the front garden under a huge mound of earth. “

Assuming son-in-law with added affection, the stories track well. Drone videos don't show a mound in the garden, but it might be hidden under trees. There is a mound of earth outside the fence, where the sniper was supposedly at work, but that may be coincidental.  

How did Roman get shot? It seems possible he and Ivan were seen as a threat, maybe stepping out to record the Russians' position or even to directly attack them. Calls were placed to Territorial Defense - because they come and help random people, or because they were Roman's secret employers? If so, the family might be quieter about the incident, to avoid drawing attention to it.

15) Mykhailo Romaniuk: UP March 6, archived: Verbatim city council: "The enemy continues to shell houses, cars, kill civilians and even children, ...A significant number of residents are in basements." For example, Yablunska 17 was hit late on the 5th, after the local water tower had been destroyed - fires raged uncontrolled all night, destroying many homes. No injuries or deaths mentioned. (will be covered in another post) But the day's one reported death was reportedly by shooting.

AFP, Death on Yablunska: "On March 6, at 10:30 am," Mykhailo Romaniuk, 58, was accompanying his niece's boyfriend Oleksandr Smagliuk, 21, on a visit to the hospital where Smagliuk's father was just wounded in whoever's shelling of the city. Romaniuk hoped to charge his phone at least, besides offering support. They arrived on Yablunska, seemingly headed west. "Then the shooting started," Smagliuk said. "We didn't see anybody. I didn't realise until the end where the shots came from. I just heard gunfire and saw him fall." He doesn't say where the shots came from, or how he decided that, or why the shooters didn't shoot him too. We hear these Russians were "determined to keep the street clear of all human life."   

"Romaniuk's body remained for 28 days on a stretch of pavement with a yellow and white curb - his swollen face turned to the side in a grimace, orange gloves still on his hands." This is apparently him. (below: #8 in a gold box) 

"[Romaniuk's] death certificate cites "ballistic cranial trauma, caused by a penetrating bullet... multiple cerebral lesions and fracture of the cranial cavity", and concludes: "automatic weapon injury with intent to kill." Not to call a Ukrainian official death certificate fake, but I would expect these injuries were caused by "shrapnel" from the mortar or artillery shell that obviously impacted the ground less than 5 meters east of where he fell, forming a crater. It happened, and would spray many metal fragments in his direction, to lacerate the skin of his head, cause a skull fracture and another penetration to the back of the head, as he was positioned. And they do say "cranial," not "facial," There may be other injuries not mentioned here, like more "bullets" in his back. Mr. Smagliuk, if he had really been there, probably would have been hit by some fragments as well, but that isn't mentioned, as he defies the evidence to claim shooting. 

Or did the crater possibly come later? The March 7 video is unclear, with the blur seeming to just cover the impact area. A still provided to CNN by Bucha prosecutors is also unclear - in a batch dated March 5-7, the one of Romaniuk just crops off the crater area - some of the ejecta seems to be visible, faintly, as a line of slightly darker patches running from above his handlebars to the right, maybe including a branch, but also more dark debris, I think that means the crater is already made.

Satellite views offer little clarity - see comparison below - 3/10 unclear but might show it - drone views 3/12-13 not clear, but perhaps DON'T show it when they would - but extra bright noon sun and sidewalk glare might wash it out in the low-resolution views - it's only clear by Maxar's enhanced view of March 19, but quite possibly there since the day Mr. Romaniuk died, and probably related to its cause, as I always assumed. 

As I earlier noted and maintain, the crater and its ejecta to the northwest indicate the shell was fired from the southeast - Ukrainian-held territory. It hit immediately in front of what's later seen as a Russian base at 221b Yablunska. A spray-painted V, discarded ammunition boxes give that impression. It's not clear if it was even an alleged Russian base on the 6th, nor why it logically would ever be a worthwhile base - would later be involved in strange activities (A CBC News video).

2015 street view, crops too tight to show the relevant gate, but verifies the place, all near the area described by the witness.

16, 17) Two others by March 7

Another body lies near Mr. Romaniuk, a bit west and uphill from him, that might well have died from the same shelling - or possibly from something earlier. He can't be ruled out of the scene noon on the 5th (off frame), but likely came later, or else his body might have been shown. This man lost a lot of blood from the head, and as seen in April and by the 3/25 drone view, has had some of his hip torn off by hungry stray dogs, not in the fatal attack. 

Another is also close enough to connect, but two details raise questions - he's next to the car otherwise linked to Kovalenko, and he's shed less blood on the asphalt than the other victims. Logically, he may have been hit inside the car and only pulled out later. But the reports don't mention a second man, so that may be coincidence. (below, bodies 9 and 10 in the orange box) 

18) Another soon after

Another crater would appear in this same area, along with one more body to complete the terrible array we'd see in April, This final addition is the most visible in the famous driving videos, splayed dramatically in the middle of the street near an obvious mortar shell crater and a spray of dirt and rocks across the street. (#11 in red below, 18 on the overview map). 

The body and crater appear at the same time, as far as I can tell, on an unclear day - possibly after noon on the 7th, maybe on the 8th or 9th, or the 10th, but it seems satellite views show a body there at least by the 10th at pretty close to noon - body connects with pole shadow, but seems to be there - crater unclear, in shadow, but seemingly present - clearly present 3/12-13 and clearer yet 3/19 (see comparisons below). As with the March 6 crater and even more clearly, this shell was fired from the southeast, Ukrainian-held territory. 

East core area overview images

First, the best available view from a March 25 Azov Battalion drone video -  different numbers than used for the overview map above, by reported dates. Again, both bodies possibly connected to the car are boxed along with it in pale blue, along with its oil track. Another abandoned car at the right side surely has an interesting story, but it doesn't connect to any known cases.

Panoramic view from TBS News Dig of the street as it appeared on March 7 - just one body, one crater missing from the final array. Scene looked like that from March 5 ... a dated reading, superseded by the above. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_x25yKasPGo

at 3:48 ... shows filmed March 7 at 12:33PM. 

For the murkier cases with craters, early satellite and drone views March 10-19, no enhancements, compared - van marked yellow - upper right view has opposite rotation (viewed from the north): 

Review

Total March 4-10, east Yablunska core area: at least 18 killed. (1 girl, 6 women, 11 men). As many as 4 other men were killed in the same days and area, per Mr. Konovalov, but his narrative aside, they likely fit the same patterns as those with clearer evidence. At least one execution seems pretty sure (#3 Abramov with his shirt off). Others may have been deliberately shot, but often are near other shooting or shell impacts that might be what killed them. In my assessment, 7 were seemingly killed by "tank shelling" - something on treads with a cannon (#2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11), apparently Russian forces, from the west. 7 died by unclear shelling or shooting (#1, 4, 7, 12, 14, 16, 17). Most of those were officially listed as killed by "shooting," mostly reported as the "sniper" type. One reportedly died from heart attack (#13, Nina Bochok). 

Unprovoked acts of evil by the Russians are entirely possible, have been reported, and are widely presumed. But to my mind, this remains unproven. In some cases, a part may be played by misread movements, especially past or near curfew in these days outside of agreed evacuation operations. These could just be the kind of traffic incidents common to military forces occupying urban areas, especially where attacks are launched from civilian homes and cars - people round the wrong corner too fast in low visibility, for example, and the Russians shoot first, ask questions later. The number of such incidents seems alarming but might just reflect the scale of Russian operations here - a lot of traffic means a lot of incidents. 

It's possible, though not much indicated, that some victims were engaged in actual attacks on Russian forces, where the shooting was in actual self-defense, At least two were probably killed by attacks against the Russians, or even in a deliberate false-flag sense, with shelling from the Kiev side (#15 Romaniuk, #18 unidentified). Others might have been killed in the same and other such strikes or other false-flag attacks (e.g. Abramov house, body 4b), but just the two are fairly clear. That's not as many as I initially suspected, but that's how the learning goes here.