Okhtyrka: Deadly Strike on a Kindergarten and Destruction of the Power Station

<< Is Russia Hitting Civilian Targets in Ukraine?

March 5, 2022 

(somewhat incomplete: last updates 3/7)

Introduction to Yet Another War Crime

1A) As CNN reported "A kindergarten in Okhtyrka was hit by shelling on Friday (Feb. 25), according to several public officials. The mayor Pavel Kuzmenko, claimed the shelling was carried out by a Russian Uragan multiple launch rocket system, injuring several children." Amnesty International heard the building was reportedly being used by locals as a shelter they thought would be safe from shelling. But sadly, it was shelled, and some of those people were torn to shreds. Amnesty heard 3 people died right away, including a child. Later it would be reported that six people died, including a seven-year-old girl Alisa who died later from wounds (so at least 2 children), and her grandfather was killed, reportedly trying to shield her. 

And it's reported as near-fact, and then read as total fact, that the Russians were the ones who did this, for no reason that needs explained. 

Drone video of the scene: https://twitter.com/3TrAmvL026aJRar/status/1497195337089490945

Seven apparent impact points (clearer on closer views), three into the roof, one nicking it, three hitting the ground out front, along with two apparently dead adults, and some spray and pools of blood. 

Amnesty International reported on this incident in some detail. 

https://www.amnistia.org/en/news/2022/03/20419/ukraine-cluster-munitions-killed-a-child-and-two-other-civilians-in-a-presch

"A preschool in north-eastern Ukraine was hit on the morning of 25 February with widely-banned cluster munitions while civilians took shelter inside, killing three of them, including a child, and wounding another child, Amnesty International said today. The attack appears to have been carried out by Russian forces, which were operating nearby, and which have a shameful record of using cluster munitions in populated areas."

"Amnesty International has confirmed that a 220mm Uragan rocket dropped cluster munitions on the Sonechko nursery and kindergarten in the town of Okhtyrka in Sumy Oblast, where local people were seeking safety from the fighting. The strike may constitute a war crime."

“There is no possible justification for dropping cluster munitions in populated areas, let alone near a school,” said Agnès Callamard, Secretary-General of Amnesty International. “This attack bears all the hallmarks of Russia’s use of this inherently indiscriminate and internationally-banned weapon, and shows flagrant disregard for civilian life.”

They do note one "possible justification" - "A logistics storage yard 300 metres north of the school may have been the target of the attack," so it may have been an accident. "However," as they rebut, "Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), like the 220mm Uragan rockets used in this attack, are unguided and notoriously inaccurate, and should never be used in civilian populated areas."

So whatever level of criminality was involved, the attack "bears all the hallmarks of Russia’s use" which are specified as" the criminality of it (because Russia - like Ukraine - has never foresworn and uses cluster munitions, meaning it's not really criminal like a violation of an agreement would be) and also because of some supposed details "first reported by the open source investigation organization Bellingcat," which they accepted, and at which we'll now have a look.

The Visual Record and Some Ballistic Analysis

Invasion of Ukraine: Tracking use of Cluster Munitions in Civilian Areas. Bellingcat, Feb. 27. https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/02/27/ukraine-conflict-tracking-use-of-cluster-munitions-in-civilian-areas/

This mainly involves video geolocation, which they usually do well, with sporadic, useful bits of further analysis. For example, in many cases "We have also been able to determine the probable direction from which the missiles came, providing a clue as to who may have fired them." But in the case of the Okhtyrka Kindergarten, that didn't yield immediately useful results.

Okhtyrka location: south of Sumy, some 100km west of Karkiv. Kindergarten strike at 50.309797, 34.869819

They start with the drone video showing the killed or wounded and "tell-tale black splashes" where the sub-munitions went off. Then "Bellingcat was able to geolocate a 9M27K cargo warhead ... approximitely 200 metres east of the kindergarten." Coordinates: 50.3086824, 34.8723472. The video details are scant and the satellite view used is unclear, so I can't yet verify this, but it looks plausible and they usually get this kind of thing right. "In this case, the direction of origin points to the north-west-west, indicating it passed over the kindergarten," and as they note, the shaft seems to angle back in that direction.

(possibly forthcoming: video scene, and maybe analysis)

They draw a red line between these point angling to 310 degrees NW, which is more to the north than the pins call for. Assuming those are placed pretty exactly, a better line is added in blue (304 degrees). 

Next we consider how far out along that line the attack might have originated. A Russian-made BM-27 Uragan (Wikipedia) was identified as the launch vehicle, due to the type of rocket/missile apparently used - Bellingcat identifies the spent canister as model "9M27K," citing BlueBoy1969 on Twitter.  Per Wikipedia (same BM-27 page), these have 3 variations K1, K2, and K3, which carry, respectively: 30 N9N210 anti-material bomblets, 24 PGMDM/PTM-1 anti-tank mines, and 312 PFM-1 anti-personnel mines. For what it's worth, the only 7 marks seen would make more sense for a model 9m59, which has nine "PTM-3 directional charge bottom attack anti-tank mines." If the scale makes sense and the canister matches just as well, that may be it.

According to that article, all of the rockets the BM-27 uses fly a maximum range of 10-35km depending (aside from one that's 8-35km). One source said a BM-30 Uragan was used, which it seems doesn't exist but could mean BM-30 Smerch (Wikipedia); its larger rockets have a maximum range up to 70 km. Charles Wood (@Mare_Indicum), a non-expert but knowledgeable source military matters, tells me these will usually be used at shorter ranges, between 5 and 20 km, for best effect.

However, according to the Institute for the Study of War, the nearest known Russian-held territory along this line was nowhere near optimal or even possible rocket range. As of late on the 25th, the nearest read area on that line was at Konotop, ~160 km away (ISW map). The image below is cropped from this, after scaling another map to match at all labels. It's interesting, but maybe coincidental, how Bellingcat's skewed red line points right to that best fit, despite it's being so far away. 

Note that ISW maps also show known Russian advances with red-white hatching, and nothing like that is shown here. The attack spot and all plausible launch spots are in totally white, government-held areas.

A maximum range of 35km, and more likely use at 5-20km, would mean the attack was launched from around the orange circle above (crudely placed, rough idea), or likely even closer to the city. It's physically possible a Russian unit could sneak a launcher that far in, but Charles Wood tells me that a normal military force like Russia's "will never put a launcher in advance of their front lines. Typically they will keep them 3 to 5 km behind line of contact. Even armour never goes ahead of the line. They always have a skirmish line of infantry to protect against enemy anti tank guided weapons." The infantry screen is "standard western tank doctrine" and general practice worldwide, as far as he knows.

To the extent this applies, we could almost rule out a normal attack by Russian forces.  However, there may be things the ISW mapmakers don't know about, and Bellingcat had some clues for a Russian presence right where they'd need to be. 

The Local "Russian Soldiers"

Belingcat: "There have been multiple social media reports of Russian troops in and around the city of Okhtyrka, before and after this attack, including posts claiming Russian soldiers were to the west of the city along the Okhtyrka-Zinkiv road and in the nearby town of Chupakhovka. "

For what it's worth, the improved blue line of attack suggested at the site points pretty closely to the mentioned Chupakovka, about 25 km out. Optimal range would be a bit closer, like just east or SE of there. So that would line up with any Russian forces out there. It could also line up with all kinds of Ukrainian forces with a well-known general run of the area.

Furthermore, they add "there appears to have been a significant battle in the  centre of Okhtyrka around the Heorhiya Peremozhtsya church 50.308362, 34.880200 on 24 February, where at least one Russian soldier was killed and his body filmed. There were also reports that multiple Russian soldiers had been captured there on the morning of the 25th February." That would be within hours of the missile attack in question. 

"As such it is clear that the area around Okhtyrka is contested," Bellingcat concludes, "unlike the area north of Kharkiv, which is under Russian control at the time of writing."

So ... groups of Russian soldiers plunged miles ahead of the established frontline to start clashes within Okhtyrka, getting killed and captured along the way ... presumably brought at least one launcher this far ahead of their lines, and used it ... either to strike a kindergarten and shelter, or to try and destroy some military gear, only shredding innocents by accident. I can't yet agree this is "clear," but it is reported anyway, and I'll try to take a closer look at the evidence in the coming days. 

To start: some photos of the "Russian soldiers" in question - four captured, one of those killed. Well-equipped elite forces? Some of their cohorts had an Uragan launcher no one stopped before it attacked the kindergarten the next day?

These and other images of this story on twitter - 1 - 2 - 3. Badly wrecked miltary vehicles litter a roadway that looks more on the edge of town than the center, and another supposed soldier who died from a bloody abdominal injury is seen dragged to the roadside. Comments say that a patch, said to be found on these guys, indicates the 4th tank regiment (consistent with the nearest units labeled on ISW maps), and some medical records are shown, along with a truck maintenance manual for one of their ancient, apparently second-hand army trucks. 

I'm no expert, and I realize this evidence convinced Bellingcat and thus Amnesty International. But I'm not so inclined and I'm not convinced these are real Russian soldiers. It seems there was a fight with them, or at least an attack on them, and that could mean what it seems. But as far as I can tell, it could be something else. For example, the Ukrainians could have some DPR prisoners of war set free in some uniforms and in some of their old trucks, and allowed them to drive away confused, just to come under shelling and get reported as advance Russians, on which any sort of crime could be pinned.

(possibly f/c: more on this to raise or lower my doubts)

Who has the Motive?

I partly concur with Bellingcat's conclusion; 

"Considering that Ukraine also operates the BM 27 and BM 30," and I have to add that they have and use these "illegal" cluster munitions as well, "and the contested nature of the ground, there is currently not enough information to demonstrate with absolute certainty who fired this missile." The means and opportunity to commit this act were available to both sides, and so these considerations are inconclusive, though it seems they point better to organized Ukrainian forces. And Bellingcat seem to agree, making an unusual appeal to motive; "That said, it appears extremely unlikely that Ukrainian forces would fire this type of weapon deliberately into their own cities, even if targeting Russian soldiers." 

Surely they wouldn't do it openly and claim the credit, and presumably most of those in Ukraine's armed forces wouldn't do it all, maybe even if they were ordered to. But some of those guys ... 

Just hypothetically now, what if some shady sector on the Ukrainian side was targeting Russians with a false-flag accusation? It seems unlikely to Bellingcat since the Ukrainians are, like, the good guys. 

But since the Maidan snipers and the US ambassador midwifed this new regime in 2014, and forward through freely massacring their political opponents and blaming the victims (Right Sector et al. in Odessa - ACLOS), an anti-democratic civil war spearheaded by openly anti-Russian Neo-Nazis in the Donbas, they have been based, by and large, on lies, fakes, and murderous false-flag attacks (e.g. 2015 Mariupol market shelling - ACLOS - Monitor). 

Hypothetically, if they decided to do this, they might set up near Chupakovka, speak of and even show some "Russian troops" in the area, and then launch a missile right at a kindergarten in that well-known Russian criminal manner, and let everything else take care of itself. 

I'm not arguing this is the case, just making the case for consideration. And I'm doing it firmly, because such a sick trick almost certainly would work, and it seems fairly possible that it DID work; the possibility is not to be just laughed away. Details we don't know might boost or weaken the possibility. For example, was there a specific demographic to the people sheltering there that could make them easier for the perpetrators to sacrifice? 

For example, were they Russian-speaking citizens from a certain neighborhood? Or was their town set to come under Russian control? If so, would that even count as firing on "their own cities?" Temporarily, yes. But otherwise, it would make Okhtyrk more like Donetsk.

According to daily maps from the Institute for the Study of War, the Russians apparently DID take control up to a few kilometers from Oktyrka as of Feb. 27 (map), apparently including the town itself by the end of March 2 (map) and were pushing west from there by the end of March 4 (see slender, red-white hatched area on map). (Note that all dates are as of afternoon US eastern time, so representing, roughly, the end of the day in Ukraine.) Russian forces reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian military garrison with a massive thermobaric bomb on the 28th, killing more than 70 soldiers, as Kiev acknowledged (incredible crater afterwards). Government control would seem very tenuous by then at the latest. 

Using the same line-up from before, Okhtyrka made a gold dot and the attack site on its western edge made blue, and a possibly confusing overlap of red lines from ISW maps at four points nearing, including, and then surpassing the city. 

And these same Russians allegedly destroyed the Combined Heat and Power Plant (CHPP) in Okhtyrka sometime on March 3 - to facilitate their conquest? This left the (already Russian-held?) city powerless and without heat. Compiled reports at UKRgate say: "In the Sumy region, Russian aircraft bombed the Ukrainian city of Okhtyrka, bombed a thermal power plant." Citing the Facebook account of Okhtyrka mayor Pavlo Kuzmenko: "the Okhtyrka thermal power plant was bombed, the railway station was bombed and several more bombs were dropped on the city of Okhtyrka." "All the information will be a little later," he concluded, perhaps meaning after he settles in to wherever he's operating from now. 

But still on March 7, UKR Gate reports how Mayor (and doctor) Kuzmenko still allegedly "saves the city heavily bombed by Russian invaders during the day and operates on people at night," as Okhtyrka was nominated for "hero city" status, which it didn't get. It seems Kiev is yet to acknowledge losing Okhtyrka, and continues to complain of damage the Russians keep inflicting on "our city," or "a peaceful Ukrainian city," per head of Sumy region Dmytro Zhyvytskyi. "The bomb hit the CHP. Residential neighborhoods were shelled." (3/3) And then on the 6th: https://twitter.com/LIGAnet/status/1500653103351222274

Okhtyrka, Sumy region. On March 6, Russian planes bombed warehouses with food, building materials, and a parking lot for fuel trucks.

"The Russian army is doing everything to turn our cities and villages into a desolated hell," said head of the Sumy Regional State Administration.

After the base blast on the 28th, soldiers and civilians were seen grimly digging through the rubble. Here, they've obtained some images from the plant as shown, and a few quiet videos of firefighters at work, but that doesn't prove much as to who is in charge. ... however,  https://twitter.com/With__Ukraine/status/1500202572992421895

On March 5th, in Okhtyrka, #Sumy region, in between the enemies' shelling, rescuers along with city residents and employees of local business organization continued dismantling the debris" at the CHP.

Source: SES (State Emergency Service) of #Ukraine - which may operate regardless who's in charge. Men in camouflage assist, not much detail I can say as to whose. 

 

March 5: "It is impossible to leave #Okhtyrka, #Trostyanets, #Lebedyn, and other cities of #Sumy region. The occupying military is looting, looting and sometimes shooting at the cars of #Ukrainian #civilians, said #Dmytro #Zhyvytskyi, head of the Sumy Regional Military Administration." Now that they're accused of criminal actions on the ground, he admits they're in charge of Shown: a video of several vehicles searched, occupants somewhere else, tires slashed, left a the roadside - pink snow suggests gasoline leaking all over - no sign of executions here - didn't notice any bullet holes on the vehicles - overall traffic was not disrupted - just some were screened out? - not clear who was stopping who and why as people fled someone's destruction of these cities - said to be somewhere on the highway to Kiev, headed there or somewhere that way - into the white on the ISW maps. 

https://twitter.com/rednano3/status/1500199810971758592

Quite likely hospitals, schools, and many homes were damaged in these days of "Russian shelling" of the Russian-occupied Okhtyrka, and more civilians killed and wounded, around the time Kiev apparently gave up on this city (and likely some others). Making these cities into "a desolated hell" would give the Russian no military advantage, but would leave them with a ruined prize and a huge mess to clean up. I'm not so sure they did that to themselves, and I bet about the same is happening in many or most Ukrainian cities the Russians wind up occupying. This question mark is enormous, but most people are trained to see only a giant exclamation mark, preceded by "Russia."

Conclusion

Regarding the Feb. 25 incident, the main possible options remain: 

* Russian forces pushed far ahead of their front line to scuffle in Okhtyrka and to hit a military site, and along the way suffered some losses and simply missed on the latter point, hitting the kindergarten/shelter. 

* Same, but the Russian forces specifically meant to hit this protected site and kill innocents, presumably to sow terror and maximize the undermining of their own promises to NOT do things like that - a familiar pattern from widely-accepted allegations out of Syria and elsewhere. 

* Some likely neo-Nazi unit of the Ukrainian forces seeded some false reports of Russian forces about, using the reported clash and arrest of whoever that really is, and then made "the Russians" look really bad by murderously shelling a building they knew was full of civilians, perhaps to kill some of "Russia's" eventual people, but mainly so powerful outsiders could more eagerly justify all sorts of  intervention and hostilities directed against Russia, Russian occupied and separate-by-vote areas of Ukraine, and all of the people therein.