Mariupol Theater Bombing: Shelled from the South

March 29, 2022

Russian forces have now taken control of the central square in Mariupol, including the drama theater and shelter they allegedly bombed on March 16. New images from widely-banned Russian media are somehow making the rounds, allowing closer glimpses of a scene that's now different than it was last we saw. RT drone footage of March 27 or 28, I guess. On first glance, it looks just about as bombed in the middle as it did ever since the disputed bomb blast nearly two weeks before.

Interestingly, that shows a neat pile of timbers in the front parking lot, seeming just the same as it did in aerial views of the 19th and 21st. But from this different angle, it's clear the opposite, east end has suffered a new collapse - compare solid wall casting a solid shadow vs. noting, in an image with almost the exact same solar angle as the first.

On-the-ground images are clearer about the extent of new damage, showing a direct hit from a powerful weapon. It flattened the middle of the once-intact wall, burying the elegant staircase. There's a clear difference in damage on the left/south vs. right/north, suggesting a missile strike from the south; the blast is in all directions, but especially in the direction of travel. New debris piles more to the north (yellow), including pieces that chipped the wall to the north (lime), some very big pieces that went north, and the northern half of the broken arch (orange) seems physically moved by the avalanche of debris. None of that is seen south of impact. (dome of church in blue, just to clarify the scene match)

All this we see outside the building also could suggests some east trend, although maybe not much - it also seems to have hit close to the edge, or right above the entrance. That would be a rocket/missile fired from at least a bit west of south, relative to the building. 

West entrance ... we see at least 2 or 3 sets of fragmentation marks from mortar shells or the like impacting nearby, like perhaps where Russian troops had just been advancing from the northwest. The angle evident in at least the one band of marks, maybe these other two, suggests a trajectory at least partly from the south. (incoming trajectory tends to be perpendicular to the resulting band of marks, because the fragments fly out perpendicular from the rocket tube). 

A few minor differences in the pavement might reflect where these impacted, but nothing obvious pops out to say where. Maybe a vehicle or something else since moved took the nearest hit. And it might seem odd this shelling did so little to affect that pile of timbers, but those really shouldn't go sliding around very easily, unless there was an impact very close to that discrete pile.  

It's not clear if these wall marks are new since the 21st, but that makes the most sense. They would have nothing to do with the initial bombing inside the building on the 16th, and were absent in a photo from shortly after the blast (note posters still up, timbers not piled together yet). 

Both basic angles given as ranges (not gospel), mapped to true north from the building: Distance is unclear and likely varied; the rocket-type and mortar-type fire were probably from different spots at different times, but in similar directions. 

everything outside the blue zone here should be controlled by Ukrainian forces. Neither side can control their area to the absolute exclusion of the other - especially of sneaky provocateurs. But they tend to do that pretty well, especially where heavy artillery is involved. Consider if these Ukrainians had fallen back from the center, the outer part of these red areas might be smart - depending how things go, they could retreat or regroup with others to the south, and/or link up to the east with their comrades in the Azovstal plant.

The shelling at the west end makes clear enough military sense, and hardly affected the building. But why should the Ukrainians fire a missile on the theater where 300 people were "feared" buried and possibly still alive? It sure couldn't help any Russian-led rescue or recovery operation, now that this is possible. But, of course, it could be blamed on the Russians. And that just might be reason enough.

But if so, it doesn't seem they have the ballistic evidence on their side.