More Details on Possible Liwa al-Islam Volcano Launch Site

Ghouta Chemical Massacre(s) - More Details on Possible Liwa al-Islam Volcano Launch Site

April 18, 2021

Following on the findings related in the recent-ish post "Do Videos Show Liwa Al-Islam Launching the 2013 Ghouta Sarin Attack?" - I've been revisiting and improving our explanation of the rocket flight paths. Some further details that seemed too much to include in full relate to the possible launch spot we found so close to where predicted. This will take a blog post, but in quick form as I wrap up that report. The exact launcher-firing spot within the identified field is still in consideration, with analysis and modeling I'm not involved with. But here are some thoughts to enter into the record.

First, a preview of the findings in a new crossover areas map: green marks the crossover of all eight impacts' broad estimate flight paths (some of them are very broad, but "site 4" keeps them all on a fairly tight leash), and they're allowed to run up to a possible 2.25km (which isn't all that far, including "wall 2").  A small red triangle marks the crossover of all 8 "most-likely center" estimates, up to 2km. "Wall 2" - magenta path - ends here, so a magenta bar (exact distance a bit fuzzy). Suggesting ranges a bit past 2km are plausible, a longer red area to the NW seems like a best place to look in (and near). White-outline = best-suggested field. The big one just north has interesting clues. But the exclamation mark just outside the red zone on the west side is the place we've been wondering about. 

From the videos, a quick Field-of-View study lining up trees between 2 views - just approximate. A blue box for rocket ignition fireball as seen (center line based on optical effects - the pole there happens to line up). Light/glare involved hugely, the actual fireball will be probably a bit smaller than it appears here, but then may have expanded a bit wider than seen as well. Wherever this firing occurred, the grass under this should be burned in a consistent area along consistent lines of sight. Red = actual launcher within that blue zone, just to the right of the rocket tails and ignition center - small white triangle.

Next I set these 2 views scaled and rotated, set at an approximate angle across the line of sight, matching lines to those objects at each. It's not quite right, but I adjust the following lines to improve that. The full wide tree 1 is seen just to the right of the launcher, with the smaller #2 just slightly overlapping - that seems the best view guide here - pretty much the only usable one. 

This is the approximate angle of view then, perhaps some degrees different in reality, and maybe a bit closer or further back. As established, the camera moves 44 steps/20-25m from the launcher (in one video - similar in the other) and gets on hard pavement before the launches. Next, the third image adds orange for basic fireball scorch area, as suggested by the satellite view (a bit unclear over bare earth). It nicely fills most of the blue span. Launcher line of sight in red - placement along the line: center of the orange. Considering the rest, this circle is probably set a meter or two too far south, but the graphic is good enough. Note how the remaining burned grass, outlined in yellow, runs to the north/northeast from the orange zone. Wind is most likely to explain that. Wind in the rocket launch videos, as seen with the smoke plume: away from the camera and a bit to the right: north-northeast. Now isn't that uncanny?

Color enhancement of the burned area: unusually consistent blue-purple south of the suggested launcher spot, and purple-magenta coloration centered just north of it. The trees just E-SE of that might also have too much purple and magenta shading right there. (note: I put a faint white mask over everything but the green field in the right-hand image) The same colors pop out at random in the shadows all over, but that patch on the trees might be a clue, and the patches on the field almost certainly are.

The scorched area might be roughly circular whatever the angle of fire, or it might be elongated in that direction. And if it's the latter, numerous directions will create a circular arc between them. For comparison, I drew in the 2 most extreme reported angles coming from this spot: 110° to impact HRW9 and 334° to LCC1/HRW1 (both unverified). All others verified and reported would have angles falling into the range between those.  The orange area just seems circular, as far as we can tell - consistent with these lines and ones in between, but not exclusively. 

What's really neat about this spot is how all the mapped and analyzed impacts line-up. Its proximity to our red area already hinted at that, but here's a table from the upcoming report to compile readings from here to all those impacts, based on the spots I have pinned. 

If this were the firing spot - and it just might be - that is abut how far off our estimates would be. "Barn" at least could use a little better set-up than it's getting even now. We thought 301 would suffice to within 2 degrees, but that would be 2.7 degrees off. Set aside in red, it was the only one to exceed our most-likely center estimate by more than the predicted deviation. It had the greatest role in limiting crossover to just avoid the "green field" and on review had some set-up limitations (a building skew to the east vs. exact ground placement, possible deflection on first impact, inclusion of secondary wall impact on the same exact trajectory, when it might have included 2 deflections) that are most likely to have shifted the estimate CCW, and thus more in line, if I had taken the time. The issue is noted but not corrected in the new report. First order of business for any next version is to re-visit the exact set-up of impact "barn."