More COVID19 Curves

May 19, 2020
incomplete

More COVID19 graphics, later in the game with a clearer picture now. They were all new when I took a bunch of screen-grabs a few days ago, on May 15. These are just to show the curves, especially of new cases, not the sheer numbers or timescale, nor to class lockdown (yes, no, type, compliance), nor to claim completeness of data (all should be at-least numbers, with unverified cases varying from few to several times the confirmed number. All of these employ some kind of limits on the virus' spread, most of them known or presumed to be in some degree of "lockdown,"but with varying strictness and compliance. Don't take this as showing what doesn't work - but they can help get some idea.

Some graph about like unchecked exponential growth of any virus - this will eventually reach so many it will start finding less hosts and level off. But in this case, it has a long way to go, and there will be a lot of deaths and crippling illness in the meantime. But even in these actual examples, growth is moderated by at least some measures - otherwise the curve would have a sharper, earlier rise to a significantly higher number than anything seen.

more explanation tomorrow...

Brazil: mostly local distancing and lockdown orders, only frustrated by national government - perhaps fastest growth of new cases and deaths in the world:

https://www.bing.com/covid/local/brazil?vert=graph
The rest follow the same format: orange line represents new (confirmed) cases, while the gray line show related fatalities, coming out far lower, naturally, on the same scale.

Others look similar despite tying not to. Take India - strong efforts at lockdown measures, but violently challenged in many areas, especially rural ones. This is a bad pattern playing out in a good chunk of the world's population, but so far, confirmed deaths aren't that bad:

People's Republic of China: a good pattern playing out on a bigger chunk of the world's people. The archetype of virus spread halted to nearly absolute zero, after absorbing the worst surprise attack on everyone suffered by any nation. This holds, and protects some 1/6 of the world's population. That's good news in itself. Notes: the sharp rise in cases (orange line) before the flattening is probably a big batch of existing cases they confirmed at once upon wider testing - a late bump in the fatalities line is adding 1,290 prior deaths in Wuhan left un-counted 'til then - not a spike of new deaths. The had reached zero on most days well before then. There's been just one fatality added in nearly a month since then. Out of 1.3 billion people. That's effective zero, on an extremely relevant battle front.

Belarus: a famously non-lockdown nation, with likely mass under-reporting of cases, and suspiciously low death toll compared even to reported cases:

Belgium: maybe the world's highest per-capita death rate (see fat gray curve), perhaps inspiring the measures and compliance causing this near-approach with horizontal zero growth.

Canada: 

Cuba: in on the Bill Gates-NWO lockdown plot?

Germany:

Ghana: (added 5-20)

Iran: in on the Bill Gates-WHO plot? Good early containment with lockdown type measures, but never flattened, still slow-to-mid boiling cases and deaths, maybe deemed tolerable. Not clear on current policy or situation. Sanctions couldn't help the epidemic, but may have had little direct effect - people can keep 6 feet apart for free. But the economy may have to be extra self-healing, extra-compelled to limit the costs of lockdown and walk a fine line between letting the virus rage like it wants to and letting it cripple their economy. They'll continue to reject both options.

Iraq: on this issue, it seems/I guess Iraq is a luckier but lazier Iran, with a steeper climb, probably with less shielding of the most vulnerable, less capability to save the hardest-hit, a higher proportion dying, but a lower proportion of those reported.

Israel: subjecting their chosen people to disaster via needless lockdown? Whatever they did, looks like it's about done - for the time being at least. Do they learn from cautionary tales like Iran? Will we hear about their hopelessly trashed economy now, or not?

Italy: (added 5-20)

Japan: (added 5-20)

Netherlands:

New Zealand: this is effective zero, on a less crucial and less representative battlefront. They must have had good starting luck and used early containment measures, besides the lockdown they added to possibly overdo it. High confirmation found less than 1,500 infections out of 4.8 million people. There may have been three times that, but they didn't herd-immunity saturate the place. The vulnerable to protect were defined well broadly, and protected - unless 21 dead as an apparent final answer is a major under-count. (note: the day 4-26 where suddenly no one died is clearly a glitch)

Nigeria: (added 5-20)

Pakistan: added 5-20

Peru: a creeping trouble spot - situation and policies unclear

Russia: steep climb in cases lately, now #2 in the worked at about 300,000 confirmed. Alt. media is bigger there - I bet half the people are sure it's a common flu and lockdown is a plot. O did the Kremlin shift to herd immunity, without my hearing about it? Death toll still not too bad: about 20 per million as I just crunched it. It was 15/m a week ago. You can see how it's bound to rise at least a bit.

Saudi Arabia: The king will order what the western scientists say makes sense, it so happens that it does make sense, the clerics wall say God wills it, and people won't do it anyway. Predict beheadings for breaking lockdown?

South Africa: not doing so good, but not as bad as it could be. Note initial strong flattening at March 28, then a steady, moderate exponential growth from there, death toll kept quite low. Likely undercounted by a margin, it might be about that low; it wasn't flu season, and all sub-Saharan Africa took good early containment measures. When I first checked in March-April, S. Africa fared the worst, and even that's not terrible - they had like 38 cases to 0-1-0-2-0-0-1 across the continent south of the equator. Since then, see 5-20 adds for Nigeria, Ghana, Zambia

Spain: Instructive to see how much better people comply when they REALLY get to know what the virus can do. Spain was once the hardest-hit nation, long holding the #2 spot after the US for sheer number of cases, and doing badly for deaths. They managed to get this under control, and now others ae getting harder-hit. Russia just took #2 with about 300k cases, and Brazil will be rivaling Russia any day, letting Spain slide to #4. But then a cautionary tale: see Iran.

Sweden: They're not tying to make this flat, just not too steep. Among the shocking and credible claims in this article is that the death toll is under-counted so Sweden's rulers (same ones that kidnapped Julian Assange for the Americans) can keep bragging about their no-lockdown herd-immunity (herd-thinning) strategy: https://theindicter.com/how-deceptive-non-epidemiological-and-anti-human-is-swedens-covid-19-strategy/ Hidden costs.

Turkey: initial resistance to economy-altering shut-downs, a climbing case rate has shifted Turkey to a more managed approach. That appears to be consistent and really starting to work. Then it's back to re-building the Ottoman empire.

Venezuela: well-contained, just turned bad (added 5-20):

Zambia: same (added 5-20):

UK: you know who you are. The rest of you: remain and carry on and stuff.

United States: We never claimed to be that smart. about 1.5 million confirmed cases (about 1/3 the global total), about 90,000 fatalities.

Some states - which ones do you think have more compliance with effective policy?
California:

Illionois:

North Carolina: just surpassing Washington for number of cases

New York: The Hubei of the US - those who dealt with it for real really deal with it.

Washington: first cluster of US deaths, first lockdown measures, lax enforcement, middling compliance

New Jersey: the smaller half of NY-NJ hotspot once accounting for about half of all US cases (added 5-20):

Texas: Not gettin' messed with as much as some states.