tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post3077338499659167098..comments2024-03-18T22:03:28.458-07:00Comments on Monitor on Massacre Marketing: 4-4-17 Wind Direction Explainer Caustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-24299519910029517292017-05-20T04:19:48.451-07:002017-05-20T04:19:48.451-07:00Returning to this:
"weak-to-nonexistent grou...Returning to this:<br /><br />"weak-to-nonexistent ground-level winds" - we don't see ground-level winds anywhere, so we have to guess - from treetops and up, as we can see (check if you don't agree) it blows to the north and east. Charles Wood estimates it's around 6-8 mph there, and I'm not as good with quantifying but that sounds right (remember when looking, maybe half the real speed is invisible, the towards-away axis). Upper winds are the same direction but faster. Ground level winds should be the same, but slower. <br /><br />fog settles: No. That's happening under the drift, but at treetops and up (what we see) it's clearly drifting to the left, seems to have spread mostly to the left and towards the camera from the white cloud area, and the SW fog area's shape suggests it spreads from a distinct spot on the same wind, north and east (divided by a hill it didn't want to climb)<br /><br />An active ground-level wind, perhaps weak, but consistent with the mid-and-upper level winds we see is just what we should expect here. If not this, then what unexpected phenomenon then caused this debatable mist to take a shape AS IF it had been blown by such a wind? Simple answer: it's the same wind that clearly exists here. End of story, as far as I can see.<br /><br />As for the recon flight - this is my own idea, not anything Syria admits to. If SyAF did have a mission in the area aound 6:30-6:45, they might prefer to not openly talk about it, and "admit it," even to claim it didn't drop anything ("oh yeah, right, and all these people just got sick for no reason, blah blah?") <br /><br />They would also not want to be caught explicitly denying it. In fact <b>they don't deny they had any flights at the time, just that there were no <i>airstrikes.</i></b> Again they would rather deny any flights, but they don't. So that's quite consistent with my guess that they did have jets nearby when the shit hit the fan (that is the 'rebels' had good timing for once), as we likely hear at the start of the 3-plumes video. <br /><br />A secondary guess is that the presented flight track is accurate, and means those jets from Shayrat airfield can't have dropped any gravity bombs on any of the sites as alleged, because they never got closer than about 2 km south of those spots. (this is debatable, but I don't want to debate it everywhere as I'm going to clarify it some more <a href="http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/File:Shayratjpg-large.jpg" rel="nofollow">here at ACLOS.</a>)<br />Caustic Logichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-83495833268202559532017-05-19T06:10:30.672-07:002017-05-19T06:10:30.672-07:00Some good points, similar to what others are sayin...Some good points, similar to what others are saying, that could possibly be the answer. I'm not at all convinced, but it's worth some review. I'll leave the subject there for the moment as I focus on the Hula Massacre 5 year agitation. But in the next few days or couple weeks, I'll put up a post about this subject. I've just gotten it mapped out, BTW, and the area's not so huge as I thought. Coverage by man-made means ('fog machine', pressurized steam, giant fumigator, etc.) given perhaps 20+ minutes is not as crazy as some would assume. Cool graphics on that (<a href="https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/865188325686104069" rel="nofollow">SW area on Twitter</a>), but I'll want to consider the other options as well before I put it all in some fair context. Feel free to drop any more points, but I won't be arguing back for a while, and not at this post when I do. Cheers.Caustic Logichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-68484932945264728062017-05-18T03:27:13.706-07:002017-05-18T03:27:13.706-07:00This is what I see -
Repeating but I thought this...This is what I see -<br /><br />Repeating but I thought this video was useful:<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOlK396U9XQ<br /><br />So different colour does not mean a separate airstrike, the video even has white clouds that match quite well. Here are some of the frames showing the area between the minaret and the white cloud:<br /><br />http://imgur.com/O49rfnf<br /><br />You can see the dust moving so the dust cloud clearly doesn't stop at the minaret. The quality of the original video was so bad it was hard to see this (which is the mistake the guy from Bellingcat has made). The darker cloud seems to match up with the base of the larger plume so, if the white cloud is more distant, the darker cloud should appear in front of the white cloud. <br /><br />But it doesn't seem to- making the white cloud closer or on a level with the larger plume. Seems logical from the movement that it is from the same strike, all one big cloud with parts in the sun, parts in shade.<br /><br />For the smoke machine, just hypothetically and ignoring the logistics and mathematics, for sake of argument the opposition have something that produces a fog that covers an entire town. The question you'd then have is why would they use it only there and not to cover their fighters on the front line in the failing Hama offensive?<br /><br />As Bilal Kareem said when he was in Aleppo, jets not being able to see would stop the bombing:<br /><br />https://twitter.com/BilalKareem/status/808720294152114176<br /><br />This is off topic but maybe for a future post - I'm interested to hear what you make of John Delacour's "W77" findings?<br /> <br />https://twitter.com/JohnDelacour/status/865111626432860160<br />https://twitter.com/JohnDelacour/status/862264193835315200<br /><br />Seems popular in the KS area, appeared on the trucks that brought victims but is it meaningful or coincidence?<br />http://imgur.com/q18RVjnAndrewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-46018557313807974472017-05-17T05:43:04.429-07:002017-05-17T05:43:04.429-07:00Marko: cool discovery and learning. But all this f...Marko: cool discovery and learning. But all this fog chasing ... well, you know I don't see much value in it. Caustic Logichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-47326109069703959132017-05-17T05:41:19.179-07:002017-05-17T05:41:19.179-07:00If you're looking for trapped smoke, don't...If you're looking for trapped smoke, don't look up, but down to the ground (invisible here, BTW - this is treetops-up). Those plumes: same little particles that were hot, floated way high and stay - those won't just drop here and make a fog. They'll float far away and settle there slowly. I suspect there is somelow-level blast smoke included in this fog.<br /><br />False-flag jet attack? The flight track to Shayrat is made up, and no one has a track of the real attackers? It's a thought, but... where was this sarin bomb dropped, you think? Somewhere southwest of the reported sites, or what? Caustic Logichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-25354291578071623192017-05-17T05:35:43.257-07:002017-05-17T05:35:43.257-07:00Expert opinions, good Q. I miss a lot actually, bu...Expert opinions, good Q. I miss a lot actually, but I haven't seen any. It's all just impression: here's bomb plumes and weird white cloud expanding, a lot of implied axpansion isn't shown (because it didn't happen? Or because it looked bad on review?). Then, foggy town, and the impression comes through good enough, paired with accounts of a caustic, foul-smelling, faintly yellow fog over the town... Paid experts might insist on including wind direction, and their opinions won't fit, so maybe they'll never bother asking. Or maybe they can find a shill even that bad to insist this can only be as Assad bomb that poured lots of fog all over, no details.<br /><br />But again, in my scenario, there probably was no event in that fog. It might've even been sorta toxic, or just steam + stories, but likely no in home rescues, and hence none shown. Victims WOULD be in a sarin plume, coated with droplets, but somehow all were picked up unseen,put on trucks, driven to the camera spot? No. I agree with you there. Likely killed by something less 'contagious,' already gathered, and brought to the WH cave hospital, or gathered and gassed there and then dragged outside to show off (or, that scene is also largely fake)<br /><br />Plume PART, maybe, but Too white, and no blast-consistent rise (no heat, cons. with cloud-like vapor production), plus ... it keeps on pouring for a long time to coat the town, if all connected, as I'm pursuing (this is the false-flag scenario that tries to account for all evidence, compared, including visual evidence that's even allegedly related and still not disproven). Caustic Logichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-61197207325194077832017-05-17T05:24:18.045-07:002017-05-17T05:24:18.045-07:00And more ... not really wind related, but close en...And more ... not really wind related, but close enough. I'm burned out on looking at minarets. The whole reason has lost its thin appeal. I'll leave it to the wrong-dayers.Caustic Logichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-42073758894893800742017-05-17T03:39:40.307-07:002017-05-17T03:39:40.307-07:00To try and word what I meant to ask a bit better, ...To try and word what I meant to ask a bit better, have any pro-opp press/activists who claim the fog video shows something connected to a chemical attack provided any professional expert opinion to back up the claim?<br /><br />If not and it's just a man on a hill's video of some 'strange looking' fog then there isn't really much to debunk? <br /><br />Fakery and scattered victims - they could have just used the story that they all ran into the 'communal bomb shelter' or been in the road on the path of the cloud. I think real or not, had the White Helmets been there they would have filmed the event.. maybe they just weren't there?<br /><br />Then there is Alaa's father and his equating a woman falling over with a gas attack. Did he think that because of what he saw or because someone in the street told him that? <br /><br />I need to read more about the victims (and what was going on in scenes like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nwOx4V_uks ), am I right in thinking every single one was moved - even those apparently dangerous to touch? None left where they fell with everyone too scared to pick up them up?<br /><br />I know you disagree but I agree with Michael Kobs on the thread about the white cloud. Looking between the minaret and white cloud, I think the big plume and white cloud are connected - all one dust cloud. Andrewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-41758068745242830542017-05-16T23:58:03.590-07:002017-05-16T23:58:03.590-07:00I found this weather forecast site that I wish we ...I found this weather forecast site that I wish we had for April 4, as it gives a nice visualization of cloud cover and heights:<br /><br />https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/forecast/meteogramfive/khan-shaykhun_syria_168325?type=meteogram_one<br /><br />It shows ground-level clouds (i.e. fog ) for Sat and Sun nights this week, lifting after sunrise. I'm certain the elevations are relative to sea level, and since KS sits at roughly 0.3 km above sea level, it looks like the expectation would be for a good chance of early-AM fog for KS on Sun and Mon.<br /><br />It seems likely the increased chance of fog is linked to the expected rain during the day on Sat. I don't believe KS had any rain on the couple of days preceding April 4th , but I'm not 100% sure about it. <br /><br />MarkoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-6391549105136520752017-05-16T13:36:54.530-07:002017-05-16T13:36:54.530-07:00CL,
I think you’re asking the weak-to-nonexistent...CL,<br /><br />I think you’re asking the weak-to-nonexistent ground-level winds to carry too much of the work load in this case. Even at the top of the plumes , we’re probably only talking 3-5 mph winds - that’s considered “no wind today” when I’m out on the boat. At ground level in the middle of town, it could well have been essentially dead calm. That’s why when I look at the composite photo strips of the bomb plumes vs the “fog” progression, it looks perfectly natural to me. The fog follows the terrain as it “settles” , finding no place to go and backing-up a bit on the camera side of the hill, but flowing more freely on the backside. The high side of town is generally to the east , or to the left in those photo strips , so you’d expect things to settle downhill , or to the right in general.<br /><br />The al-Jazeera illustration with the red-blocked areas - representing the areas impacted by sarin/toxic gases I presume - also looks about right to me, based on the terrain map. The red areas represent areas downhill from the “sarin” crater , and the main road that bisects the red blocks would probably have some effect on channeling flow as well , as the road bed would be slightly elevated relative to the shoulders and beyond.<br /><br />As to the composition of the “fog” , I suspect it’s a combination - it looks like it was a hazy day to begin with , and with the temp inversion , there may well have been noticeable fog that morning even without the airstrikes. If there was significant ground-level moisture , sarin would have glommed right onto it , as sarin is effectively infinitely soluble in water. Similarly for any water-soluble components of the blast clouds, which may have included additional water vapor from the blasts themselves if any water pipes or containers were destroyed. Add it all up and you’ve got a flowing river of fog , perhaps of significantly variable composition locally , but generally obeying the laws of gravity in its movement, with wind playing only a secondary role, if that.<br /><br />I think there's more fundamental questions that need to be answered , like the discrepancy between the airstrike stories. Does the Syrian air force admit to flying a recon mission over KS at ~ 6:30 AM ? If not , did the U.S. falsify that radar track, or did some other country's jet(s) bomb KS in the early AM ? Why did SentrySyria fail to report any early AM takeoffs from Shayrat air base on April 4 ? Who tipped off the activists in KS if it wasn't SentrySyria?<br /><br />My working theory is that this was an actual jet attack, using a real sarin bomb , perhaps even two, using Assad's sarin stocks or hexamine-spiked sarin to mimic Assad's stuff, designed and implemented as a false-flag by one or more groups of coalition intel/military operatives. A real production, in other words, with lots of amateurish , phony stuff around a professionally-designed core.<br /><br />Marko<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-62403949147859862002017-05-16T04:35:19.932-07:002017-05-16T04:35:19.932-07:00Thanks for this digging, Andrew. It's a detail...Thanks for this digging, Andrew. It's a detail I didn't get before, the balconies - led to some confusion. Caustic Logichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-7346801868613207762017-05-16T03:52:10.861-07:002017-05-16T03:52:10.861-07:00And a problem with your if-then: There's alrea...And a problem with your if-then: There's already no video of rescues around town, with or without fog. We suspect because it's hard to first scatter al your hostages into various homes and get them gassed there instead of running away, before you can come back and save them. So, they just filmed the fog from a distance, because it looks clearer and more dramatic that way anyhow. It's a scale effect, and maybe badly overdone, which is a clue to tease out if so. These alleged Assad bombs can lay there and pour fog for 20 minutes and cover the whole town? And so far we hear just the one bomb "near the bakery" did all of that, against the wind. That, or an improved version to come, is what they're saying. That makes even less sense than my theory, especially considering motive, etc. Caustic Logichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-28085500161835271552017-05-16T03:46:24.833-07:002017-05-16T03:46:24.833-07:00Efforts continue (in vain, I suspect) to show the ...Efforts continue (in vain, I suspect) to show the videos are from different days, and prob. neither of them the 4th. If that's so, proven or not, natural mist would be the most likely answer. But... in both views we have same basic sun angles/time of year/same vegetation, no scene differences, and only 20-30 minutes or so time difference (w/fog video later, despite efforts to claim otherwise). We also have the same prevailing wind on both days, and one has an expanding white vapor cloud, unusual, and the other day has unusually thick mist centered (densest-seeming) partly in that same spot. <br /><br />So, logically, the same day case is not difficult to entertain, except for how that mist would just keep expanding that whole time. <br /><br />No natural mist could form in that short span (not could it evaporate, if you want to flip the order but keep them same-day)<br /><br />So, in my scenario I'm sticking to, this might be/likely is all video of the 4th. So I have to think of what it could be. It would be something weird, for sure. It's on a day when terrorists have a false-flag event planned with lots of dead lined up - it's Ghouta 2.0 - and their story involves a widespread toxic fog. So they got that on video. To me, it seems just a matter of how, and they had time to plan. "Fog machines" might be stupid, but I don't mean like from a rock show... No one's suggested anything better, but still, I don't think it's at all impossible. I don't have any model or specs dug up yet. Could be just a big tub they pour barrels of chemicals into, or any kind of steam boiler, maybe (isn't mist/fog just steam?) Etc. (Others are better with such guesses, but they aren't even helping here)<br /><br />Also, some argue it's trapped smoke, and there will be some. Petri and Charles Wood, and Michael Kobs think that's all it is, that the amount is ok. So I imagine a big portion of what we see is that, but I suspect less than half, considering these discrete spots where it seems to originate. I mean, look at that expansion - it's enough to go strongly against the wind for a moment, as a Bellingcat kook noted here arguing the wind at ground level actually blows to the right. (will be adding this...) https://twitter.com/Timmi_Allen/status/864144516177113090 <br /><br />That right there might seem odd or impossible, but it's on video. Imagine not 15 seconds but 20+ minutes of that expansion, then see the fog video and tell me it's really gotten any stranger than it already was, right there on video. OK, a second weird spot emerged to the SW, and others might have. That's weirder, but not so far out once we see the precedent. If they had one (mystery device/method), why not 2 or 3 or maybe more?<br /><br />(longer answer than needed, but helping practice my broader case for everyone)Caustic Logichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-3947891294321816732017-05-16T00:10:34.250-07:002017-05-16T00:10:34.250-07:00Have any actual meteorologists come forward to say...Have any actual meteorologists come forward to say the fog shown cannot be a natural phenomenon? <br /><br />Giant smoke machines don't seem feasible and if they were producing a fake on a grand scale at that point or even days before, we could have reasonably expected to have been flooded with White Helmets videos from inside the town itself, showing them in their new hazmat suits 'saving children within minutes of the killer chemical cloud'.Andrewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-49941850079295976982017-05-15T05:02:04.488-07:002017-05-15T05:02:04.488-07:00Didn't realise the minaret behind the hill is ...Didn't realise the minaret behind the hill is actually shown on the 'Smart' video ("Mosque Hospice" on Google maps)<br /><br />http://imgur.com/VYPvTVQ<br /><br />Andrewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-90369777063741745052017-05-15T04:20:32.236-07:002017-05-15T04:20:32.236-07:00Another octagonal minaret but I'm not sure whe...Another octagonal minaret but I'm not sure where it is. <br /><br />Known + new one in order shown on Bellingcat picture:<br /><br />http://imgur.com/eLlUSBy<br /><br />The photo has been placed on Google Earth near the 4th minaret on Bellingcat (orange, behind the hill) but might not have been put in the right place. <br /><br />It isn't one of the 4 we have already, 2nd only has 2 balconies and a square base, 4th known minaret the balconies are closer together.<br /><br />New photo from http://www.panoramio.com/photo/2271709 Andrewnoreply@blogger.com