tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post2815643866723656456..comments2024-03-18T22:03:28.458-07:00Comments on Monitor on Massacre Marketing: NYT: One Really Stupid Attempt to Demonize AssadCaustic Logichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-34346581150193340102019-09-25T06:44:17.571-07:002019-09-25T06:44:17.571-07:00They won a "news Emmy". Tedious document...<a href="https://twitter.com/malachybrowne/status/1176754823422709761" rel="nofollow">They won a "news Emmy"</a>. Tedious documentary or silly animation, all anti-Assad propaganda gets some award no matter how badly done.<br />Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12749505072348356868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-87507484494346413622018-08-14T01:00:01.865-07:002018-08-14T01:00:01.865-07:00I've fished since the '50's. The pupil...I've fished since the '50's. The pupils go cloudy white after you kill them. I think it's the fluid inside the eye. Also, my uncle was a vet and he put animals to sleep. They were kept outside before they were taken to Glasgow University's Vet College. The pupils "fogged over" or went opaque.<br /><br />Scots Law. Sheriffs are big on terms like REASONABLY PRACTICABLE or reasonable proof. That covers material evidence, statements and the legal procedures. The expectation of "100% certainty" sets a standard that may be impossible to satisfy in practice. The failure to meet such a standard doesn't make that a reasonable doubt...because it was unreasonable to expect to meet such an exceptionally high standard as that in the first place. Sheriffs do not have an eternity to reach this "100% certainty" standard in every detail and in every case. No doubt they have their standards based on their practising the Law and in consultations between each other and they set a high bar....but they do not perform miracles like getting it right with "100% certainty." That's why they have Appeals and re-trials etc. James Grahamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10714723263925103073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-48310997357249612622018-08-05T02:10:36.307-07:002018-08-05T02:10:36.307-07:00I just noticed this says April 18. Typo? I need to...I just noticed this says April 18. Typo? I need to check where you get that reliable record for the 8th. Or, whoever know how to crunch it with decompression rates to get the expected time to drain the tank. FWIW, it seems close to empty - I think the frost area is seen is the whole thing at that time. Caustic Logichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-47383971969592176712018-07-20T06:31:23.342-07:002018-07-20T06:31:23.342-07:00Hitting that part of the roof (while hitting the l...Hitting that part of the roof (while hitting the lattice) is the forensic architecture theory though<br /><br /><a href="https://www.forensic-architecture.org/case/douma-chemical-attacks/" rel="nofollow">https://www.forensic-architecture.org/case/douma-chemical-attacks/</a><br /><br />Bunch of errors I don't need to point out, but has one or two different angle videos/photos. By pointing to the cloth (that wasn't there) and not quite knowing how the metal lattice was connected to the roof, they obviously don't have any images to show it was intact. Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12749505072348356868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-48267935093028875062018-07-16T02:39:30.843-07:002018-07-16T02:39:30.843-07:00Good point, it could be on the left from the White...Good point, it could be on the left from the White Helmets twitter video from the 9th. Brightness adjusted:<br /><br /><a href="https://imgur.com/NlWBm3h" rel="nofollow">https://imgur.com/NlWBm3h</a> <br /><br />I didn't think it had the diagonal strips of metal but I can't find a clear shot of the other direction to compare. But maybe not significant anywayAndrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12749505072348356868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-78340006275004327002018-07-15T22:17:11.703-07:002018-07-15T22:17:11.703-07:00Not getting the point, but that kitchen could be t...Not getting the point, but that kitchen could be to the left or right, pretty high up from the view. It's app. not the one next to the fire/cylinder room, sharp eye. And the NYT map does have this wrong, a little hall to nowhere in its place. (my own leaves this area blank, I think - and that still seems OK) Caustic Logichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-59984713469701161572018-07-15T06:32:03.742-07:002018-07-15T06:32:03.742-07:00To compare, I think this kitchen may be through th...To compare, I think this kitchen may be through the doorway next to the lattice remains on the balcony<br /><br /><a href="https://youtu.be/sexIs8a_nus?t=51" rel="nofollow">https://youtu.be/sexIs8a_nus?t=51</a><br /><br />It isn't the kitchen to the right of the room below the cylinder (tried to use NYT map but they have even got that wrong)<br /><br /><a href="https://imgur.com/7i9kFY4" rel="nofollow">https://imgur.com/7i9kFY4</a><br /><br />Looks top floor, damaged and abandonedAndrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12749505072348356868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-9781713674458660912018-07-14T02:52:18.147-07:002018-07-14T02:52:18.147-07:00That makes it look really compelling. If I hadn...That makes it look really compelling. If I hadn't seen the same apparently since 2009 or earlier, I'd say prior war damage, close to sure. I'll need to look at it again soon...Caustic Logichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-35379368421445989462018-07-13T10:28:39.469-07:002018-07-13T10:28:39.469-07:00The damage on the left of the roof seems to match ...The damage on the left of the roof seems to match at least, images are not good. There is a bucket on the roof / connection from roof to lattice frame but I couldn't tell if it was intact at the time or how it was connected, maybe someone else can. <br /><br /><a href="https://imgur.com/BBywshu" rel="nofollow">https://imgur.com/BBywshu</a><br /><br />Looks like it would have been the only building in Douma with an intact lattice though.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12749505072348356868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-68856325584812696432018-07-13T04:14:30.575-07:002018-07-13T04:14:30.575-07:00As for the satellite views - compelling. I should ...As for the satellite views - compelling. I should compare some footage of the roof to see how different things come through - Checking Google Earth though, there seems to be the same corner darkness, and perhaps balcony darkness suggesting a hole is included, going way back. 6-11 and 6-28 2009 included. So … apparently some coincidence?<br />8-8-2011, dark corner, intact-looking balcony. <br />4-25-2012, dark corner, dark spot like the hole, but in the wrong place (almost at opposite corner)<br />5-14, 5/22, 8/18, 2012: that other dark corner persists? <br />8-28, 9-1-2012: dark/damage corner looks like a sharp round hole?<br /><br />3013-2014: images get blurrier, details unclear.<br />12-14, 12-27-2014: clearer images with shifting dark spots on balcony, darm damage corner remains<br />6-27-2016: looks most like the scene we see the following April. Coincidence?<br />10-3-2016, 1-21-2017 also look similar, or like the balcony is blown open entirely, very dark. Hm. <br />5-5-2017, after the incident, is less clear, but should look like what we saw a month earlier. Caustic Logichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-52631027367206510982018-07-13T03:30:53.292-07:002018-07-13T03:30:53.292-07:00Unknown person, good point. I did mention this dam...Unknown person, good point. I did mention this damage in the article, and I noticed their graphics somewhere did indicate this damage as one of few details, so I presumed that was their argument, even though I didn't explain that (and they didn't either, that I noticed). But that still won't explain how this mesh would leave an imprint of its still pattern on the tank's side. It would mean the minor dent is from either part of the suggested 2-part impact. That would add SOME plausibility to the sudden stop, and in fact the way it implicitly tipped over compared to the dent makes sense. I don't think it can explain this as a genuine helicopter drop. Anything making sense would reflect luck, or some decent thinking-out by the people staging it.Caustic Logichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-56966512167372557932018-07-12T08:27:19.859-07:002018-07-12T08:27:19.859-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12749505072348356868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-10124502537962208612018-07-12T07:52:05.284-07:002018-07-12T07:52:05.284-07:00If that was the theory, they don't seem to hav...If that was the theory, they don't seem to have put the part about the corner of the roof in their video or animation?<br /><br />They say "these deep dents mean the tip of the bomb made first impact, consistent with it falling nose down from above and piercing the ceiling" (shot of the room below at this point) and that it "crashed through the metal lattice" <br /><br /><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/06/24/world/middleeast/douma-syria-chemical-attack-augmented-reality-ar-ul.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/06/24/world/middleeast/douma-syria-chemical-attack-augmented-reality-ar-ul.html</a><br /><br />"The dent on the front of the bomb indicates that it crashed nose down into the floor of the balcony and pierced the 4th-floor ceiling".<br /><br />Before showing bombing damage for 6-7 April they show an admittedly not very clear satellite photo where that corner of the building looks to be already damaged: <br /><br /><a href="https://imgur.com/qDwNsTu" rel="nofollow">https://imgur.com/qDwNsTu</a><br />Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12749505072348356868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-10311041967259299672018-07-12T06:40:53.383-07:002018-07-12T06:40:53.383-07:00lots of excellent material. In fairness to NYT th...lots of excellent material. In fairness to NYT theory, they do not argue that cylinder hit roof coming straight down, but rather argue that it first hit a corner of the balcony (showing damaged area in Russian video), then deflected to the hole. I'm not suggesting that this is any more sensible, only that it's a more accurate representation of their theory.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07966049624301704045noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-48726093074820565802018-07-09T04:45:21.243-07:002018-07-09T04:45:21.243-07:00To be fair, I don't think it is possible to ex...To be fair, I don't think it is possible to explain in their version. Even a fire to try and remove the chemicals would be backwards if you accept frost at 10pm<br /><br />The NYT did provide 2 photos of the cylinder in the same position as the earliest video, both sides show the 'black corrosion' only formed above the hole<br /><br /><a href="https://imgur.com/vI7uG1g" rel="nofollow">https://imgur.com/vI7uG1g</a><br /><br />For the victim ID:<br /><br />"Touka" = Taqa Hanan?<br /><a href="https://youtu.be/GAEZlhdSHUQ?t=39" rel="nofollow">https://youtu.be/GAEZlhdSHUQ?t=39</a>Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12749505072348356868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-31718620867135049962018-07-08T05:23:36.929-07:002018-07-08T05:23:36.929-07:00No third cylinder? That makes the BBC/CNN/Sunday T...No third cylinder? That makes the BBC/CNN/Sunday Times witness story <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-little-girl-whose-agony-set-the-west-on-path-to-war-gwv0d0rfl" rel="nofollow">seem absurd</a>. Chlorine would have to shoot through the building, out into the street and down into the neighbouring basement in "seconds".<br /><br />The NYT theory of people moving up from the basement when they smelled chlorine and that they for some reason "couldn't have known it was coming from the roof" didn't make sense anyway. Now they would also have to run towards the *only* alleged source of chlorine gas in the street. Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12749505072348356868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-77214022745993215422018-07-07T16:14:31.592-07:002018-07-07T16:14:31.592-07:00Re the OPCW interim report.
They didn't repor...Re the OPCW interim report.<br /><br />They didn't report any sampling of the 'black' on the cylinder as such. It would have helped shut up the wild directed speculation in the NYT piece.<br /><br />FYI there is a black oxide of Iron Fe3O4. It's the same black as on guns. It is formed by strong acid or caustic solutions oxidising the Iron in preference to the red Fe2O3 form we know as rust. If it was possible to do it by exposing to chlorine there would be a dozen patents by now.<br /><br />And yet another what-the! They clearly have no meteorologists on staff. They plucked some data for the weather from some hipster American website that aggregates and interpolates met data to give an 'impression' of what the weather could have been. They had hard reliable data from Damascus airport METARS they could have used but through ignorance didn't.<br /><br />My day job includes reading forensic evidence, and the OPCW report reads as so much bureaucratic flim-flam used as a pretty story rather than something that can be used in court. It's all dressed up with official procedure references, bit zip on who did what where and when - actual evidence. Worse, they plan to publish the websites and blogs they used in compiling the report! Sacred Blue!<br /><br />So now we have a completely made up NYT report and a farce of non report from OPCW. Will anyone do an actual investigation at some time?Charles Woodnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-63389672367721360322018-07-07T04:00:10.023-07:002018-07-07T04:00:10.023-07:00Thanks A+A for these latest comments. The Twitter ...Thanks A+A for these latest comments. The Twitter exchange forced me to pop in with some questions. <br /><br />https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1015546543292624897<br />https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1015547852389474304<br />https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1015549730372268034<br /><br />I'm penning a short (as planned) post on the last couple of attack findings compared. Thanks for the direct report link. Will review soon. Caustic Logichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-8739705831334027922018-07-07T02:40:02.434-07:002018-07-07T02:40:02.434-07:00A bigger version of smoke damage picture if anyone...A bigger version of smoke damage picture if anyone needs it. <br /><br /><a href="https://cdni.rt.com/media/pics/2018.04/original/5ade2799d43750cf548b459d.jpg" rel="nofollow">https://cdni.rt.com/media/pics/2018.04/original/5ade2799d43750cf548b459d.jpg</a>Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12749505072348356868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-1395741561639130032018-07-07T01:50:43.742-07:002018-07-07T01:50:43.742-07:00Haven't had chance to read in detail but someo...Haven't had chance to read in detail but someone else notes the description of entry 21 and 22 ("burnt")<br /><br />Possible this part NYT worked on with Bellingcat as Higgins seems to show a lack of understanding here <a href="https://imgur.com/j4oIW6u" rel="nofollow">https://imgur.com/j4oIW6u</a> Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12749505072348356868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-47828127972458578262018-07-06T10:13:08.115-07:002018-07-06T10:13:08.115-07:00Interim report https://www.opcw.org/fileadmin/OPCW...Interim report <a href="https://www.opcw.org/fileadmin/OPCW/S_series/2018/en/s-1645-2018_e_.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://www.opcw.org/fileadmin/OPCW/S_series/2018/en/s-1645-2018_e_.pdf</a><br /><br />Still ongoing (though everyone is trying to spin this report one way or the other). Describes the delay in the OPCW getting to the site, not quite as NYT claimed. Anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-2717374802174085792018-07-01T05:44:06.527-07:002018-07-01T05:44:06.527-07:00An interview that goes with the NYT piece:
http:/...An interview that goes with the NYT piece:<br /><br />http://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/claims-syrian-government-chemical-weapons-against-own-people/9921358<br /><br />Malachy Browne says cylinder fins "turns it into a missile that falls nose down"<br /><br />Helicopters "provide a stationary platform for them to drop straight down"<br /><br />As shown by neither of these 2 cylinders. And no satellite images of that lattice to show when it was damaged. They'll probably win an award.Anoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-84672754568981212452018-06-29T15:47:29.999-07:002018-06-29T15:47:29.999-07:0081F! Well that makes 3 hours … less likely. By som...81F! Well that makes 3 hours … less likely. By some margin.Caustic Logichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03082923821952309709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7091580307813686433.post-78361153638852355422018-06-29T12:58:55.552-07:002018-06-29T12:58:55.552-07:00Temperature at 7pm 7 Apr 18, Damascus, was 27C (81...Temperature at 7pm 7 Apr 18, Damascus, was 27C (81F). Dewpoint -4C, 25F. Wind 6 knot, 3 m/s<br /><br />10pm Temperature 22C (72F). Dewpoint 0C (32F). Calm.<br /><br />So a warm dry evening. Frost duration would be minutes without active cooling by boiling chlorine. In the later part, the day's hot air in the building would rise through the hole by chimney effect. Earlier, the warm dry breeze would make short work of any frost.Charles Woodnoreply@blogger.com